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Old 04-25-2016, 01:55 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by womanfish View Post
just for some fun.

What do you guys think would be the outcome of a 4 way race. If Trump got screwed and he went third party, and because of that, Bernie saw an opportunity and went 4th party...
What do you think would happen?

Clinton, Sander, Trump, Cruz or Kasich...

I think no chance for Cruz or Kasich, but the other 3 would be incredibly close.

Clinton would have women and minority backing, plus some liberal Repubs that won't vote Trump.

Sanders would get youth vote, and would split indys with Trump.

Hard to say. thoughts?
If it were a 4 way popular vote it might be close... but in an electoral college setup, Hillary would dominate. Cruz might actually finish second, as they Republican States where Tump does best are largely Blue States in the general. If it were Kasich, the opposite may be true... where Trump finishes second but still can't grab enough to challenge Hillary.

Sanders might pick up a few states in New England but that's about it.

The only question would be whether or not the other three candidates can steal enough States from Hillary to keep her short of the magic number.
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Old 04-25-2016, 02:07 PM   #22
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If it were a 4 way popular vote it might be close... but in an electoral college setup, Hillary would dominate. Cruz might actually finish second, as they Republican States where Tump does best are largely Blue States in the general. If it were Kasich, the opposite may be true... where Trump finishes second but still can't grab enough to challenge Hillary.

Sanders might pick up a few states in New England but that's about it.

The only question would be whether or not the other three candidates can steal enough States from Hillary to keep her short of the magic number.
I tend to think you are right, considering the electoral college process.

But I still think there would be some really interesting state outcomes. Just think of state like Georgia where Clinton crushed it, especially with minorities, but yet it's still a red state, but yet it is shifting and has a strong young demo. With a really broken up pool of votes, it could get interesting...

Even California. Nearly tied for HRC and Sanders, and Trump is way up. Could be a wild card. Florida? Both Clinton and Trump dominate, but with votes being taken away on both sides, it makes for a much more unsure race.

Can't deny that i hope we someday to get to a system like this. Although, I'm sure if we did, there would be whole new set of problems and complaints that would arise. It's always gonna suck.
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Old 04-25-2016, 02:32 PM   #23
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I think a 4-way the GOPestablishment ticket is DOA. Trump has a core support that won't sway. With the Bernie-Clinton split mirroring the Democrat primary, they would be very vulnerable in ceding those states to Trump. I can easily see Trump getting above 300 electoral votes.

A Ryan/Kasich ticket wins only Wisconsin, Ohio, Utah

Clinton wins Mass, RI, NY, Maryland, Illinois, California, New Mexico, Delaware, DC

Bernie wins Vermont, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii

Trump takes everything else. NJ and CT in a squeaker.

Don't underestimate the devastation caused by a split of HRC - Bernie wings of the party. The establishment really does not want Cruz so my hypothetical takes him out of contention. An anointed ticket created out of thin air may only attract 25-30% of GOP inclined voters. Bernie Hillary fracture is closer to 50-50 nationally. Trump has independent crossover appeal in states like PA and MI.


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Old 04-25-2016, 02:51 PM   #24
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Trump can't get over 40% in his own damn party... how on earth will he ever get enough votes in a general to take enough states to get over 300?
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Old 04-25-2016, 03:17 PM   #25
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Trump can't get over 40% in his own damn party... how on earth will he ever get enough votes in a general to take enough states to get over 300?
Exactly. The only Hilary needs to do is to make sure there are no missteps. Basically, no "48% of America" blunders like Romney had.

Also, what has been lost in the last 6 months is Trump's character. He's done a great job of diverting the subject away from it so far but when the national spotlight is at its peak come late summer and fall, I think enough will come out to make a lot of undecided voters to stay the heck away.
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Old 04-25-2016, 03:20 PM   #26
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that's nothing compared to Clinton

the most corrupt, dishonest, murderous, Wall St shill that's ever.....EVER LIVED!!!!

or that's what i've seen on FB
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Old 04-25-2016, 03:24 PM   #27
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that's nothing compared to Clinton

the most corrupt, dishonest, murderous, Wall St shill that's ever.....EVER LIVED!!!!

or that's what i've seen on FB
Now there's a big Facebook movement by Bernie fans to not vote for Hilary and write Bernie in instead. I'm hoping that they all come to the realization come November that a write in vote for Bernie is essentially a vote for Trump.
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Old 04-25-2016, 03:32 PM   #28
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Yep, been seeing that for months. Either write in Bernie, or Jill Stein

Even go as far to say they would rather see the country burn under Trump, than give up their values and vote for Hillary

Not selfish at all
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Old 04-25-2016, 03:39 PM   #29
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How is that different than the PUMA movement in '08? Come November, if Trump or Cruz is the Republican nominee, they will vote Clinton.
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Old 04-25-2016, 03:41 PM   #30
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You never know with the youth vote.

but yeah, once the dust settles after primary season, the thought, and REAL possibility of a Trump or Cruz Presidency will make people move to Clinton
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Old 04-25-2016, 03:43 PM   #31
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I am encouraged that Bernie mentioned over the weekend that they might "re-evaluate" after then next set of primaries. Hopefully that means lightening up on the attacks and getting closer to a unified message. I'll applaud Bernie if this happens.
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Old 04-25-2016, 03:51 PM   #32
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Maybe, we'll see
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Old 04-25-2016, 03:53 PM   #33
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Yep, been seeing that for months. Either write in Bernie, or Jill Stein

Even go as far to say they would rather see the country burn under Trump, than give up their values and vote for Hillary

Not selfish at all
At this point, what respect I had for Sanders, slowly degraded and now is in a nose-dive.
His continued attacking of Clinton, when there is no path for him, and now when asked if he will support Clinton if shes the nominee, he says that it's up to Clinton to pretty much adopt his platform. Yesterday he used the same wording as Trump, and said the Dem party hasn't been fair to him. Jesus. the delusion.

It seems he has followed his supporters lead, instead of the other way around. It's really odd.
Clinton shifted to supporting Obama in a big way in 2008. And that's what an adult does.
He's becoming like a petulant child. Everything isn't fair, is rigged, stolen, fraud, taken, etc...

If he doesn't come out after his ass whooping tomorrow and make at least some outreach to Clinton supporters, and gesturing to his own supporters the importance of getting behind a nominee to beat Trump, then it's gonna be really ugly from here on out. much uglier than i thought it might be.
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Old 04-25-2016, 03:58 PM   #34
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How is that different than the PUMA movement in '08? Come November, if Trump or Cruz is the Republican nominee, they will vote Clinton.
Theres a difference this time. In 08, I think the PUMA's were pissed because Obama came from behind and took what they thought was a sure thing. And a sure thing from what was going to be the first woman president. Which was pretty important to a lot of people.

This time. Its not like that. These people wouldn't piss on Hillary if she were on fire. The brainwashing has been successful and complete. The narrative, pounded in by the right wing for 20 years, got picked up by a progressive who labeled himself a Democrat. So it gave validity to it. Now its not just strange right wingers. Its coming from all sides and for people who were born in 1997, with absolutely zero political history or precedence, it is gospel.

I think that when all is said and done, about 10% won't go to Clinton and thats only IF Bernie is supportive. If he's not. I put it more at 15-20
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Old 04-25-2016, 04:06 PM   #35
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I am encouraged that Bernie mentioned over the weekend that they might "re-evaluate" after then next set of primaries. Hopefully that means lightening up on the attacks and getting closer to a unified message. I'll applaud Bernie if this happens.
I will definitely applaud him. He would win back a lot of lost respect I've had for him. But part of me thinks, a lot of real damage has been done. Plenty of 18-25 year olds, were in this only for him and would imagine they don't give a shit, beyond that, even if bernie does support her fully.
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Old 04-25-2016, 04:42 PM   #36
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread - VIII

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That's pretty sad.

Neither one deserves to be the nominee if they have to resort to that kind of nonsense rather than just get enough people to support them.

I'd call it tactical, and accepting of reality. There's no way either of them can win, but together they still do represent everyone who doesn't want Trump (which may or may not be the majority).
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Old 04-25-2016, 04:58 PM   #37
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I think a 4-way the GOPestablishment ticket is DOA. Trump has a core support that won't sway. With the Bernie-Clinton split mirroring the Democrat primary, they would be very vulnerable in ceding those states to Trump. I can easily see Trump getting above 300 electoral votes.

A Ryan/Kasich ticket wins only Wisconsin, Ohio, Utah

Clinton wins Mass, RI, NY, Maryland, Illinois, California, New Mexico, Delaware, DC

Bernie wins Vermont, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii

Trump takes everything else. NJ and CT in a squeaker.

Don't underestimate the devastation caused by a split of HRC - Bernie wings of the party. The establishment really does not want Cruz so my hypothetical takes him out of contention. An anointed ticket created out of thin air may only attract 25-30% of GOP inclined voters. Bernie Hillary fracture is closer to 50-50 nationally. Trump has independent crossover appeal in states like PA and MI.


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Trump support is dying fast, especially in the independents. No way does he have the ability to get those numbers.


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Old 04-25-2016, 05:07 PM   #38
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Yep, been seeing that for months. Either write in Bernie, or Jill Stein

Even go as far to say they would rather see the country burn under Trump, than give up their values and vote for Hillary

Not selfish at all
Without the progressive Nader voters standing their ground in 2000 there would have been no Obama in 2008.
Yes, a high price was paid with W as president. With Obama we got marriage rights for all and a 2-3 supreme Court picks that will last decades. So maybe progressives should hold fast to their principles
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Old 04-25-2016, 05:11 PM   #39
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No 4 way or 3 way
And Trump has a real shot at 270, best of any of the GOP.
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Old 04-25-2016, 05:45 PM   #40
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No 4 way or 3 way
And Trump has a real shot at 270, best of any of the GOP.
How? What states do you actually see him turning from red to blue?
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