2016 US Presidential Election Thread - VII

[anitram]

I have to admit I'm not up to speed on his green card status but yeah, if he has one he can contribute.

[LuckyNumber7]

Bono is a permanent resident -- same thing as having a green card.

[BigMacPhisto]

Originally Posted by womanfish

Dear God.
I don't pray much. But please let hillary just win NY by 10 so that we can please move past all the BS.

If Clinton wins by any amount, it's finally over. Bernie's chances go to 0% unless you're bat shit enough to think he's going to win California by twenty points in June.

I think Clinton will win by about six points on Tuesday and that will be the end of all of this. A loss in New York bodes poorly for Bernie's chances in states with even worse demographics, such as Connecticut and Maryland. Plus, New York is a golden opportunity for him to really cut into her delegate lead.

[LuckyNumber7]

Nobody ever expected Sanders to come even close in NY. It's Clinton's senatorial state.

Sanders hasn't stood a real chance since Ohio/Florida, but to think New York is his ticket, win-or-go-home state... nah. He just needs to not get blown out 60-40. I'd say if he manages a margin under 10 points, he's happy.

[mikal]

Yeah, it's a big numbers game. Unless all the polls are wrong (which wouldn't be an absolute shocker) Clinton will win NY and that's where it starts to get close to it being mathematically impossible for Bernie to win. Hopefully when it gets to that point, he does the right thing and bows out instead of threatening a contested convention.

[womanfish]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

If Clinton wins by any amount, it's finally over. Bernie's chances go to 0% unless you're bat shit enough to think he's going to win California by twenty points in June.

I think Clinton will win by about six points on Tuesday and that will be the end of all of this. A loss in New York bodes poorly for Bernie's chances in states with even worse demographics, such as Connecticut and Maryland. Plus, New York is a golden opportunity for him to really cut into her delegate lead.

That's almost my exact projection as well. the polls have her up around an average of twelve. I automatically cut 5% off the top since he seems to over perform by election day. My guess is a 7 point HRC win.

I do think if it's under 10, that He will keep on pushing the narrative that he can win. And as much as it will annoy me, I understand he wants to go til June which is his prerogative.

If he is within 2 or 3. then its gonna get really messy.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by mikal

Yeah, it's a big numbers game. Unless all the polls are wrong (which wouldn't be an absolute shocker) Clinton will win NY and that's where it starts to get close to it being mathematically impossible for Bernie to win. Hopefully when it gets to that point, he does the right thing and bows out instead of threatening a contested convention.

Well they're frequently wrong in magnitude, but not necessarily wrong in choosing a winner. I'd venture to say that's because if the undecided or no answer pollers.

The only way Sanders contests at the convention is with a pledged delegate lead but Clinton with over 50% of the delegates (and I think we can all agree that he'd have a valid point). It's not going to happen though. She's got it on lock. He's just buying time.

Honestly, the longer he stays in this race, the better it is for her and her relevance. Though, I would say recently it's starting to get damaging. Then again, the other side is as well.

[womanfish]

Originally Posted by mikal

Yeah, it's a big numbers game. Unless all the polls are wrong (which wouldn't be an absolute shocker) Clinton will win NY and that's where it starts to get close to it being mathematically impossible for Bernie to win. Hopefully when it gets to that point, he does the right thing and bows out instead of threatening a contested convention.

I think the biggest part of the numbers game with NY in particular, is the amount of delegates it removes from the equation. Even if Bernie loses by 1 point. HRC gets like 10 more delegates from him. But it takes away, the second largest delegate prize going forward.

I would say that we are looking at a definite Maryland win for HRC, probably a close win in PA, maybe a 5 to 8 point win in Jersey and Deleware. Bernie probably nabs Connecticut and Rhode Island.
If it all falls that way. Not even a California blowout by Bernie would be enough.

[womanfish]

Also interesting to see Trump coming out with Hillary attacks. The best part, he's calling her "Crooked Hillary" LOL.
If that's the kind of stinging attack that he has in store. She's breathing a sigh of relief.
Truly, i can't think of a thing that they can hit her with that hasn't been said a million times, and has lost any of it's punch.

[Jeannieco]

Originally Posted by Hewson

Are candidates allowed to take donations from non US citizens?

They use these fundraisers to raise funds obviously, mostly because ( I think) the rules for individual donations are different as to the monetary limit you can donate. What is the point to having limits if they just create these bogus "fundraisers" so the filthy rich can donate at the maximum by purchasing tickets at these ungodly sums? It's so ridiculous the way they work around these laws, typical politicians.

I could have sworn I read somewhere that Edge donated to Hillary's campaign fund some time ago, not this election cycle. Maybe it was in 2008 for the nomination back then? Doesn't matter, I was just curious with all this talk about Clooney's fundraiser and since Edge lives out there in LA it seemed like a logical assumption he would donate/attend plus he's definitely in the 1% crowd! Whatever... I was just wondering.

[LuckyNumber7]

He probably did... because he's probably also a permanent resident. He can contribute.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The Bros are descending... hide the women and well to do

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

He probably did... because he's probably also a permanent resident. He can contribute.

He's also married to an American. I wonder if he has dual citizenship?

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I give Bernie this... his pre rally playlists are legit

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

He's also married to an American. I wonder if he has dual citizenship?

Ireland is really good about dual citizenship for Americans (I am a dual citizen of Ireland). However, the opposite is not the same. You can't be a dual citizen in the United States unless you're born into it. So, he'd have to renounce his Irish citizenship to get US citizenship. Something he most likely did not do.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

Ireland is really good about dual citizenship for Americans (I am a dual citizen of Ireland). However, the opposite is not the same. You can't be a dual citizen in the United States unless you're born into it. So, he'd have to renounce his Irish citizenship to get US citizenship. Something he most likely did not do.

You're supposed to renounce in the Oath of Allegiance but many people don't actually renounce and as a matter of policy the US government no longer prosecutes them or insists on it. Also anybody naturalized before they turned 18 is exempt.

I agree with you though, they're not dual citizens.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I hope Edge's dual citizenship is okay

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by anitram

You're supposed to renounce in the Oath of Allegiance but many people don't actually renounce and as a matter of policy the US government no longer prosecutes them or insists on it. Also anybody naturalized before they turned 18 is exempt.

I agree with you though, they're not dual citizens.

It's not just based upon when you turn 18. There are exceptions for dual citizenship based upon where you're born, and who you're born to. If another country sees you as a citizen upon birth, i.e. you are naturalized in another country, dual citizenship is allowed and you are not expected to renounce any citizenship.

The U.S. government doesn't prosecute it or insist upon it from the perspective of dual citizens of the United States and Canada. They turn a blind eye, due to the commonness. However, I was making a reverse-case example. In the event that an American goes to apply for citizenship in another country, they will lose their U.S. citizenship. Basically, the U.S. is welcoming of people coming in and keeping dual citizenship, but not a happy camper when you try to go and get dual citizenship with your U.S. citizenship being your only citizenship.

[BigMacPhisto]

Originally Posted by womanfish

I think the biggest part of the numbers game with NY in particular, is the amount of delegates it removes from the equation. Even if Bernie loses by 1 point. HRC gets like 10 more delegates from him. But it takes away, the second largest delegate prize going forward.

Exactly. And a sizable Clinton victory in New York makes Sanders have to do so much more work going forward that it becomes virtually impossible to come back from his delegate deficit.

As it currently stands, Sanders is 88 delegates "off the pace" according to the FiveThirtyEight tracker. It's probably a little less than that since he's likely to flip a few more delegates into his column from caucus states as his supporters are more likely to actually show up at the county and state-wide conventions.

California is worth 475 pledged delegates alone and the FiveThirtyEight projection only had him needing to beat Clinton by three delegates there in a 50-50 race. He has almost two months until that primary and trails her by a very narrow margin compared to how far back he was in a lot of other states where ground was made up fairly quickly. The fact that he was behind by only like 10 points in December in California and the fact that Latinos in this state are gravitating towards him and the fact that he's now basically tied nationally means a ten point victory in California (55-45) isn't out of the question whatsoever. Ten points would be roughly 48 more delegates than Clinton and cuts down his current delegate deficit to "be on track" from 88 to 43. If you're an onlooker that's wondering why Clinton has been so worried, it's precisely because Sanders still has a viable shot at winning the pledged delegate lead.

For the record, the FiveThirtyEight course from months back expected a three delegate win in New York for Sanders in a race that was tied nationally. Basically, a 1% victory. Losing tomorrow puts him off course by however many delegates he loses by plus the three he was supposed to win by.

Finally, Maryland is going to be a real interesting case as it's pretty much the only state remaining that expected a big Sanders loss even if things were tied nationally. FiveThirtyEight expected an 11 delegate loss there for Sanders, so he could technically lose Maryland by a closer margin and actually gain on Clinton as it would mean far less ground to make up in the other states.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ets/democrats/

[BigMacPhisto]

Basically shatters the myth that Clinton is raising money mostly for the DNC when she conducts these big fundraisers such as the Clooney one.

Clinton-DNC Joint Fundraising Raises Serious Campaign Finance Concerns

NEW YORK – U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign on Monday questioned “serious apparent violations” of campaign finance laws under a joint fundraising deal between Hillary Clinton’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee.

The questionable dealings were detailed in a letter from Brad Deutsch, the attorney for Sanders’ campaign, to U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the chair of the DNC. The letter questioned whether the Clinton presidential campaign violated legal limits on donations by improperly subsidizing Clinton’s campaign bid by paying Clinton staffers with funds from the joint DNC-Clinton committee.

Unlike Clinton’s presidential campaign committee, Hillary for America, the joint committee may accept large donations of up to $356,100. The first $2,700 of this amount is eligible for transfer to the Clinton campaign, $33,400 can be transferred to the DNC, with any remaining amount, up to $10,000, to each participating state party. According to public disclosure reports, however, the joint Clinton-DNC fund, Hillary Victory Fund (HVF), appears to operate in a way that skirts legal limits on federal campaign donations and primarily benefits the Clinton presidential campaign.

The financial disclosure reports on file with the Federal Election Commission indicate that the joint committee invested millions in low-dollar, online fundraising and advertising that solely benefits the Clinton campaign. The Sanders campaign “is particularly concerned that these extremely large-dollar individual contributions have been used by the Hillary Victory Fund to pay for more than $7.8 million in direct mail efforts and over $8.6 million in online advertising” according to the letter to the DNC. Both outlays benefit the Clinton presidential campaign “by generating low-dollar contributions that flow only to HFA [Hillary for America] rather than to the DNC or any of the participating state party committees.”

The questionable outlays “have grown to staggering magnitudes” and “can no longer be ignored,” Deutsch added.

The expenditures on advertising and fundraising are at best “an impermissible in-kind contribution from the DNC and the participating state party committees” to Clinton’s presidential campaign, the letter said. “At worst, using funds received from large-dollar donors who have already contributed the $2,700 maximum to HFA [Hillary for America] may represent an excessive contribution to HFA from these individuals.”

In addition, the joint committee has paid the Clinton campaign committee $2.6 million ostensibly to “reimburse” the Clinton presidential campaign staff for time spent running the joint committee. The unusual arrangement, Deutsch said, “raises equally serious concerns that joint committee funds, which are meant to be allocated proportionally among the participating committees, are being used to impermissibly subsidize HFA through an over-reimbursement for campaign staffers and resources.”

“While the use of joint fundraising agreements has existed for some time — it is unprecedented for the DNC to allow a joint committee to be exploited to the benefit of one candidate in the midst of a contested nominating contest,” said Jeff Weaver, Sanders’ campaign manager.





The joint committee "reimbursing" the Clinton campaign has to be the biggest joke of them all, but it's even more ludicrous when this money raised is mostly being spent on Clinton herself.