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Old 03-16-2016, 09:40 AM   #681
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part VI

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
Why? That's a way to make literally zero people happy. To the GOP, Cruz is just as much of a maniac. There's already been chatter that the party elites actually favor Trump to Cruz due to his legitimate lack of political ties coupled with his popular support. They would have to take a lot of responsibility for a Cruz gaffe. They don't have to take any responsibility if the convention chooses Trump. They just blame the constituency.

Because Cruz and Trump are likely to be relatively close in popular support, if not delegates, and it would be probably unwise for the GOP to attempt to install someone other than those two. If it comes down to a lesser-evil thing and Cruz seemingly would at least unite the base more effectively, I can see them going for Cruz. As I explained earlier, I'd prefer to have Trump than Cruz as nominee. Therefore, given the choice between Trump winning a majority of delegates and a pledge convention that may choose Cruz (not certainly, of course), I'd take locking in Trump. The risk of Cruz overwhelms the potential benefit of a tiny chance of Kasich/Romney/Paul Ryan, in my estimation.


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Old 03-16-2016, 09:42 AM   #682
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I dunno. Ted Cruz is, as we all know, not very popular.
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Old 03-16-2016, 09:42 AM   #683
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What might change my mind is if Kasich picks up some serious delegates in the Northeast, and the Establishment gets a bit more leverage at the convention.


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Old 03-16-2016, 09:43 AM   #684
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Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
I dunno. Ted Cruz is, as we all know, not very popular.

Really, though? Exit polls have consistently shown Cruz beating Trump almost everywhere in a head-to-head matchup.


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Old 03-16-2016, 09:43 AM   #685
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Old 03-16-2016, 09:45 AM   #686
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This is LITERALLY the most horrifying thing I have ever seen.


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Old 03-16-2016, 09:56 AM   #687
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there you go
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Old 03-16-2016, 10:42 AM   #688
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Originally Posted by digitize View Post
Really, though? Exit polls have consistently shown Cruz beating Trump almost everywhere in a head-to-head matchup.


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Except, of course, in this area of vote count.
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Old 03-16-2016, 11:31 AM   #689
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Except, of course, in this area of vote count.
Right, because Cruz has never faced Trump one-on-one. The dynamic of the race so far has been that Trump has been racking up pluralities because the anti-Trump vote is highly split, but GOP rules make it easy to sweep up an enormous amount of delegates off of pluralities. The GOP anti-Trumps have never coalesced around anyone, but have been a majority in every state so far. It's unlikely that much of the former Rubio base would go for Trump, and the same will be the case for the former Kasich base when Kasich is gone.
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Old 03-16-2016, 12:01 PM   #690
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The Democrats have a playbook for an evangelical conservative Texan.

Nobody has a playbook to take on Trump.

I think Hillary would rather face Cruz at this point.


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Old 03-16-2016, 12:48 PM   #691
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Why is Bashar Al-Assad hanging out with Donald Trump?
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Old 03-16-2016, 12:50 PM   #692
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Originally Posted by Oregoropa View Post

Nobody has a playbook to take on Trump.
Nicolle Wallace put it best, Trump is the post-truth candidate. It's why he's pretty much bulletproof. He can tell one interviewer one thing and be on another show 5 minutes later and tell them another, which he did yesterday, and his voters don't care. His voters could care less about the truth. He can lie to their faces and they don't care. If the truth doesn't matter than the he can do anything he pleases, he won't even need propaganda. That's the most dangerous possibility to give to the leader of a country, especially one like the U.S.



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Old 03-16-2016, 01:04 PM   #693
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oregoropa View Post
The Democrats have a playbook for an evangelical conservative Texan.

Nobody has a playbook to take on Trump.

I think Hillary would rather face Cruz at this point.
Both Cruz and Trump have a favorable rating of about 33%, so either should be easy to take on.
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Old 03-16-2016, 02:16 PM   #694
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what states do we think Trump could actually win?

or, what states would go blue for Clinton?
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Old 03-16-2016, 02:36 PM   #695
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Can someone explain what the deal is with this contested convention thing? What does that mean? Is "brokered convention" the same thing? I've heard that term thrown around as well.
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Old 03-16-2016, 02:55 PM   #696
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what states do we think Trump could actually win?

or, what states would go blue for Clinton?

Once it gets to a one on one the public thinking will reset except for those who are hardened against one or the other. I'd be intrigued to see state polls at that point. With Cruz you get the GOP trying to thread the electoral needle once again. If Trump were to take Rubio as vp to calm the nerves of the never-Trumps it could be more interesting as Trump may make more Rust Belt states competitive. As much as Trump is disliked, Hillary has some hefty negatives herself when it comes to Honesty.


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Old 03-16-2016, 03:03 PM   #697
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Well, if there is a contested or brokered primary, Trump has suggested there will be riots. That's nice. Holy fuck, this man is a 3rd world dictator who actually has a chance of being elected in the USA.

Donald Trump Predicts/Threatens ‘Riots’ if GOP Brokers Away His Nomination | Mediaite

ETA: To answer your question Cori, if Trump doesn't pick up more than 50% of all the delegates, we could have a contested or a brokered convention. A contested convention would happen if even though Trump didn't win the required number of delegates outright, delegates pledged to no one swung to him. If after the first vote, he still didn't have enough delegates, it's a brokered convention and the establishment thinks this gives them a chance to get someone else in. They just keep voting and in each round more delegates become unbound to specific candidates and things get crazy.
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Old 03-16-2016, 03:07 PM   #698
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Quote:
Originally Posted by corianderstem View Post
Can someone explain what the deal is with this contested convention thing? What does that mean? Is "brokered convention" the same thing? I've heard that term thrown around as well.
They're the same thing. Candidates win delegates from primaries. In the GOP, you need 1237 delegates to win the nomination. What Kasich's win here in Ohio yesterday did was make it much more difficult for Trump to get all the way to 1237 before the convention, and pretty much impossible for everyone else. So usually, at least for the last 3-4 decades, someone has passed 1237 and subsequently been officially nominated by the delegates in the 'first ballot' at the convention. But if no one was won 1237 when the convention rolls around, that means no one will win the nomination on the first ballot, and as such, all of the delegates at the convention will have to vote again on a second or even third ballot.

But once the first ballot is done, the peoples' vote doesn't mean anything anymore. At that point, the delegates can support whoever they want, they're not bound to the vote of their state's people anymore. There will be lawyers, backroom negotiations, deals being made, etc between ballots trying win support for one candidate or another. And it doesn't have to be one of the official candidates. The delegates can nominate anyone at that point(although I'd think a person would have to want to be nominated for that to happen). Romney could throw his name in, Paul Ryan could throw his name in, hell, I wouldn't be totally shocked if Jeb tried to get the nomination at the convention.

Contested/brokered conventions don't usually happen anymore, but they used to happen more often until the 70s. The rules were changed, I think in reaction to the 1968 Chicago convention. So it's kind of a joke that it's every political journalist's wet dream to have a contested/brokered convention, because it's kind of political anarchy, which is a great story to write.
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Old 03-16-2016, 03:10 PM   #699
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Quote:
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Both Cruz and Trump have a favorable rating of about 33%, so either should be easy to take on.
I do think that Cruz would be easier for Hillary to defeat then Trump. As was stated, it really doesn't matter what Trump does, he doesn't pay a price for it.

I think that the enthusiasm for Cruz would be tepid and the minority vote, along with youth vote and middle of the road independents would end up flooding to Hillary.

Trump will attract more indies than Hillary, and enthusiasm would be high. But the minority vote will be out STRONG to defy Trump and support Hillary.

Also, remember that once she has the nomination, you will have president Obama out stumping for her, and hopefully Sanders throwing his weight in as well. It could be quite the formidable campaign.
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Old 03-16-2016, 03:18 PM   #700
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has Trump even broken 50% in a single state? what evidence do we have that he'd pull in independents and people who have never voted before, let alone the other 2/3rds of the GOP who can't stand him?
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