mikal
Blue Crack Addict
I hate to say it but I agree. This is a very scary time in America.
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part VI
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I hate to say it but I agree. This is a very scary time in America.
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Kieran McConville
ONE love, blood, life
I think the exact opposite, but it's moot, since the conventional wisdom thinks otherwise and thus it is unlikely Sanders will have the opportunity to put this experiment to the test. In point of fact, I think that a hypothetical Sanders-Trump election would very possibly lead to a blowout in the former's favour. You all are too carried away with America's appetite for nativist fascism, I think. Not saying the potential isn't there (Bush did get re-elected, after all), but I wonder.
The media is Trump's free publicity machine. The same media is trying its best to pretend that the Vermont senator barely exists as a legitimate candidate. And yet, and yet.
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Scarletwine
New Yorker
And yet he's winning again tonight.
Polls say he beats Trump by a bigger margin than HRC.
Polls say he beats Trump by a bigger margin than HRC.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
What both men are doing is speaking effectively to those who have been left in the dust by the globalization and deregulation of trade since the early 1980s. I agree that the nativist fascism is overblown, though it does have an appeal to those with little hope in the future and need someone to blame. (Trump blames immigrants, Bernie blames Wall Street).
The TPP has likely hurt HRC in Michigan. Sanders has really gone after her on that. I don't pretend to have the foggiest clue as to whether or not the TPP is aggregate good or bad, but the young white kids I know sure have a strong opinion on it. My guess is auto workers are inclined to agree with the kids.
The TPP has likely hurt HRC in Michigan. Sanders has really gone after her on that. I don't pretend to have the foggiest clue as to whether or not the TPP is aggregate good or bad, but the young white kids I know sure have a strong opinion on it. My guess is auto workers are inclined to agree with the kids.
LemonMelon
More 5G Than Man
Bernie winning Michigan would be huge. I saw some polls as recent as a few weeks ago that had him losing by 10% or more.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...-sanders-says-he-consistently-beats-donald-t/
Polls say otherwise but, as noted above, polls are limited.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...-sanders-says-he-consistently-beats-donald-t/
Polls say otherwise but, as noted above, polls are limited.
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Oregoropa
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
Trump is 1 o'clock on a clock dial
Bernie is 11 o'clock on a clock dial
Opposite ends of the political spectrum, but their supporters both want to throw off the current political order. Their base voters are closer to each other on the clock then they're respective establishments.
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Bernie is 11 o'clock on a clock dial
Opposite ends of the political spectrum, but their supporters both want to throw off the current political order. Their base voters are closer to each other on the clock then they're respective establishments.
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BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
Really? So you think you're closer to BigMac than you are Bob or Iron?
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Mack_Again
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Hey, Bernie won, people. I guess Michigan isn't so much of a band state after all.
Oregoropa
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
If BigMac's view is to overthrow the entrenched establishment rather a purity test of principles it is possible. I haven't read up on BigMacs reasons for supporting Bernie.
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deep
Blue Crack Addict
deep
Blue Crack Addict
I imagine the stakes are to be driven through the heart of the political establishment.
cobl04
45:33
Interesting article in Time about Bernie creating the left wing equivalent of the Tea Party, and how the message is more important than the messenger, and that a Clinton win or god forbid a Trump presidency could actually see the movement gather serious strength.
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
Did you mean "rather than a purity test"?
Do you realize how short sighted that is? Are you really that willing to give us an authoritarian just to say you got rid of the "establishment"? Do you realize how irresponsible and dangerous that is?
We ALL understand the desire to get rid of a stale establishment, but my god understand who you're putting in its place.
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Clearly everyone on the Republican side has lost their fucking minds, so the only hope we have left is to plea for the democrats not to do the same and nominate Sanders, thus sealing our fate.
Vlad n U 2
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While I do side with Bernie as a liberal, and most of his ideas I get behind (thought I just don't know HOW they would be implemented). For those that state nothing would get done with him as President.....a gridlocked capital tends to do really well with budget and keeping things in check.
But I just don't see Bernie being electable in the general, and unfortunately it doesn't have much to do with his policies
He's a jew
He's a socialist
He had a child with a woman who isn't his wife
He had his honeymoon in Moscow
He hasn't passed or authored any meaningful bills, which I feel is the most damning, as he's shown to be mostly talk and unable to compromise.
Other than the last point, those other ones SHOULD NOT MATTER, but don't you think the GOP would just tear this guy apart? Americans are stupid, and hearing about how he's a communist who loves Russia because he took his wife there....
That's how you get a Drumpf elected.
But I just don't see Bernie being electable in the general, and unfortunately it doesn't have much to do with his policies
He's a jew
He's a socialist
He had a child with a woman who isn't his wife
He had his honeymoon in Moscow
He hasn't passed or authored any meaningful bills, which I feel is the most damning, as he's shown to be mostly talk and unable to compromise.
Other than the last point, those other ones SHOULD NOT MATTER, but don't you think the GOP would just tear this guy apart? Americans are stupid, and hearing about how he's a communist who loves Russia because he took his wife there....
That's how you get a Drumpf elected.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I agree with this. Trump and Sanders share a huge amount of the independents. But Trump will easily collect the young vote, the black vote, the female vote, the Latino vote, etc over Trump. And he will cut into Trump's most valuable asset -- independent voters.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Minus the child thing... explain to me how this isn't relatively the same image of Barack Obama?
Will minorities come out and support Bernie like they did Obama? And yes Obama had every name thrown at him, the difference is Bernie IS a socialist. Obama took the high ground and didn't even acknowledge the shit thrown his way (minus the birth certificate)
Bernie has to own it.
Bernie has to own it.
BigMacPhisto
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After next Tuesday, Sanders has basically every single voting location being a place that you would expect to favor him.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
If you look at the delegate targets for each area (which are what the candidates would expect to get in a race that was tied 50-50 nationally), it really isn't that hard to see Sanders meeting those marks. Of course, in a race where he should be trailing Clinton by a few dozen delegates, but instead is trailing her by about 200, it's obvious he wasn't anywhere near the 50-50 mark in national support. Plus, he took an absolute drubbing in the highly black deep-south states which are now all behind him.
He's continuing to creep up on Clinton nationally and if he could get close to a draw in delegates next Tuesday, he could start launching a comeback where he continues to gain on her for the rest of the race. He would need to get ahead to about 53-47 nationally real soon to accomplish this which would lead to much more lopsided victories for him in states like Oregon, for example.
It's also clear that the polls are woefully underestimating youth turnout among other things. Aside from the deep south (where he underperformed), Sanders consistently beat his polling expectations by about ten points everywhere. That bodes pretty bad for Clinton's chances in a lot of states as Sanders managed to turn a 21 point polling average deficit in Michigan to a 2 point victory in a couple of days.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
If you look at the delegate targets for each area (which are what the candidates would expect to get in a race that was tied 50-50 nationally), it really isn't that hard to see Sanders meeting those marks. Of course, in a race where he should be trailing Clinton by a few dozen delegates, but instead is trailing her by about 200, it's obvious he wasn't anywhere near the 50-50 mark in national support. Plus, he took an absolute drubbing in the highly black deep-south states which are now all behind him.
He's continuing to creep up on Clinton nationally and if he could get close to a draw in delegates next Tuesday, he could start launching a comeback where he continues to gain on her for the rest of the race. He would need to get ahead to about 53-47 nationally real soon to accomplish this which would lead to much more lopsided victories for him in states like Oregon, for example.
It's also clear that the polls are woefully underestimating youth turnout among other things. Aside from the deep south (where he underperformed), Sanders consistently beat his polling expectations by about ten points everywhere. That bodes pretty bad for Clinton's chances in a lot of states as Sanders managed to turn a 21 point polling average deficit in Michigan to a 2 point victory in a couple of days.
BigMacPhisto
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Bernie will get those supporters, but he also draws in previously disenfranchised liberals and white voters (particularly independents). Believe it or not, the latino and asian votes actually don't matter at all when it comes to the electoral college while the black vote can help swing Southern-Nothern divides such as North Carolina or Virginia.
If Sanders were the nominee, he'd have Obama campaigning behind him which would then make him "Obama's heir" which is the same reason blacks have been voting for Clinton. It will be easy to get their vote.
BigMacPhisto
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As for Bernie. I agree with his policies and I think he can actually win and would do far better than Clinton in the general election. With no corporate support and limited media attention, he's giving Clinton a run for money, outperforming her with independents and has been consistently shown to do far better against the potential Republican nominee in polling. There is absolutely no evidence to support the claim that Clinton is a stronger candidate against the Republicans, so I'm not sure why the media establishment and the party got behind her so damn quickly.
As for what Sanders can accomplish? Whatever Clinton will do, Sanders can do it better by taking the more progressive stance. Again, it's another weird myth that Clinton will "get things done" when it's guaranteed that there will be a Republican House after this election.
As for what Sanders can accomplish? Whatever Clinton will do, Sanders can do it better by taking the more progressive stance. Again, it's another weird myth that Clinton will "get things done" when it's guaranteed that there will be a Republican House after this election.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Bernie Sanders isn't a socialist. He's wrong for once upon a time describing himself as one, and anyone who understands socialism knows that Bernie Sanders would have to overthrow our system to be a socialist.
BigMacPhisto
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It comes down to saying whether the rich have too much or whether being a racist is acceptable in 2016.
I think the American people will easily decide with the former.
On another note, Sanders only lost blacks in Michigan by a 2-1 margin compared to 9-1 in Mississippi...and that's in spite of Clinton doing everything in her power to try and capitalize on the Flint water crisis. Seems the extra attention giving to the state by both candidates only managed to make more people switch over to camp Bernie. Personally, I think Clinton's pandering in Michigan may have been her most nauseating yet and I get the feeling that a lot of voters could see through it.
It was Sander's best performance among blacks so far in fact.
I think the American people will easily decide with the former.
On another note, Sanders only lost blacks in Michigan by a 2-1 margin compared to 9-1 in Mississippi...and that's in spite of Clinton doing everything in her power to try and capitalize on the Flint water crisis. Seems the extra attention giving to the state by both candidates only managed to make more people switch over to camp Bernie. Personally, I think Clinton's pandering in Michigan may have been her most nauseating yet and I get the feeling that a lot of voters could see through it.
It was Sander's best performance among blacks so far in fact.
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Ding.
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
Are these the lies they're trying to sell you on berniefanboy.com?
Hispanic vote doesn't matter? Is that why both sides are fighting tooth and nail to court them? Somehow you're privy to information that all other campaign managers don't have?
When you were interviewing the black people of America did you happen to ask them their views on the new Star Wars as well? Just curious...
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LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I think the seed has been planted that Bernie Sanders is a "Social Democrat" already, with intentions of fighting that battle if it ever came in the general election. It'd be a big deal, for sure. But, I can't imagine all of those previously mentioned demographics caring about an attack on Sanders being "socialist," when the alternative is acting like an oppressive fascist.
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