2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part V

[LuckyNumber7]

Rubio has it in the bag? What race are you watching? Marco Rubio is the one deflating. Trump has a majority issue, but don't forget his little buddy down at the bottom holding 7% of the national vote, named Ben Carson. Those points are big, and a fair share of them are Donald-willing voters due to his outsider nature. And plenty of Cruz voters are Donald-willing, for the same anti-establishment reasoning.

Rubio has shown an ineffectiveness of being able to win *any* state. Neither the polls nor his campaign indicate when or where his first victory will be, and he's slipping in the national polls.

Donald Trump is the one who had this one in the bag. One can only hope for a brokered convention. That's looking like the second most likely possibility. And it's not very likely.

 

[deep]

I think he is watching through the wishful thinking lenses
I think your assessment is pretty good

 

[BVS]

Rubio has it in the bag? What race are you watching? Marco Rubio is the one deflating. Trump has a majority issue, but don't forget his little buddy down at the bottom holding 7% of the national vote, named Ben Carson. Those points are big, and a fair share of them are Donald-willing voters due to his outsider nature. And plenty of Cruz voters are Donald-willing, for the same anti-establishment reasoning.

Rubio has shown an ineffectiveness of being able to win *any* state. Neither the polls nor his campaign indicate when or where his first victory will be, and he's slipping in the national polls.

Donald Trump is the one who had this one in the bag. One can only hope for a brokered convention. That's looking like the second most likely possibility. And it's not very likely.

Yeah, we've got bubble folks on both sides of the race in here.


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[Headache in a Suitcase]

I still can't believe that the Republican electorate is stupid enough to nominate clown car... but maybe I should start believing.

Still think that the establishment candidate, namely Rubio, will surge with everyone else out and all the money flowing his way

 

[Mack_Again]

Dazed Marco Rubio Wakes Up In Koch Compound To Find Cold Metal Device Installed Behind Ear - The Onion - America's Finest News Source


i know it contributes to no argument here but i came across this while ago and found it pretty interesting, especially considering that this article came before Marco had that "repeating same line 4 times" incident

 

[trojanchick99]

I'm honestly ashamed that so many Americans are voting for Trump. He makes W seem sensible.

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[BigMacPhisto]

I'm not crazy with my Rubio sentiment...it's expressed all over from sites like FiveThirtyEight to betting markets to the fact that Cruz and Bush and Kasich and Christie all wasted their time and money going after him. Yes, Rubio hasn't won a state yet. That doesn't matter whatsoever. He surged in all three states at the last week. Big time. Although in New Hampshire everything got deflated like crazy after the robot incident. It's only a matter of time before Rubio's establishment support and money eventually lead him to take over everyone else.

Trump has a very good chance of winning the nomination, mind you, but he has that damn ceiling that's being a hindrance for him. He's not going to be able to win when topping out 40% maximum in a two-way or three way race and over half of the Republican primary voters saying they don't want him to be their nominee. Also, the Ben Carson stuff certainly helps Trump at the moment (the bigger the field, the better his odds), but Carson's going to be out of this race by Super Tuesday at the latest. Polling shows his supporters would go to Cruz, Rubio and Trump roughly about evenly, so it won't really give anyone much of a boost when he does exit...but acting like Carson sticking around is going to play a big part in these things for Trump is just gibberish.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

I think he is watching through the wishful thinking lenses
I think your assessment is pretty good

It's hardly wishful thinking. It's been known for awhile just what Trump's hurdles would be on the path to the nomination. A low ceiling (he's basically nobody's second choice candidate) and the establishment getting behind someone else have always been known hindrances...and I feel they will come to fruition soon. Might happen by Super Tuesday, might be a bit later. But eventually, I think Rubio clears 40% in the three way or 50% in a two way race nationally and then Trump is toast.

Lest we also take into account the fact that Trump has deflated compared to polling in all three states thus far whereas Rubio would have exceeded expectations in all three without the robot mistake. In South Carolina, Google searches for Rubio and Cruz skyrocketed right before the primary and they received as much searching there as Trump (who had no boost) with virtually all of the late-deciders breaking for the two of them. Trump consistently underperforms his polls which shows voters are afraid to pull the trigger and actually vote for the guy while undecideds won't even consider him.

Trust me, I want Trump to be the nominee just as much as the next liberal although Cruz would be decent as well. Marco Rubio is the one person out of that entire field that actually scares me and it has been hypothesized that he could do well enough with latinos to win this thing. This election's a slam dunk with one of the other two and it will lead to a lot of good down ballot results for the Dems across the country.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Okay Marco, those two posts were like the same thing.

"Let's not get rid of this notion that Marco Rubio doesn't stand a chance. Marco Rubio knows exactly what he's doing."

But in all seriousness... he's struggling to get second place finishes at under a quarter of the electorate. He has yet to command even a per-candidate share of the votes, much less a winning share.

Brokered convention? Rubio walks out as the candidate. Anything else? Trump fall equals Cruz rise. Cruz rise equals Trump fall.

There simply isn't a palate for establishment GOP. That's why Trump and Cruz are consistently pulling the most votes. That's why Bush went nowhere, even with tons of money. Rubio isn't full on establishment GOP, but voters clearly don't want even that. They want the crazies.

But you're right about one thing.. if Marco secures the nomination, he's probably our next president.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

I'm honestly ashamed that so many Americans are voting for Trump. He makes W seem sensible.

So much this. I get what others are saying about wanting Trump to win the nomination so Democrats have that much better a chance at winning...

...but still. Everything with Trump's popularity is embarrassing and incomprehensible on so many levels. And if a lot of people are voting for him in the primaries already, it's still easy to have that fear in the back of one's mind that if he did win the nomination, he might, at the very least, actually come close to winning in November.

Like I said before, I'm horrible at predicting this stuff, so I'll defer to those who are more well-versed in that side of things. But seeing all of this play out is still unsettling to me all the same.

 

[Axver]

A Trump presidency (or, let's be honest, a Cruz one) would make the global view of the Bush years seem positive and laudatory. Think about how much work Obama's done to patch up relations since 2008. All of that will be undone, and more. I hate to think what subsequent presidents would have to do to restore America's global stature.

 

[Mack_Again]

oh well in japan whoever said that mirroring Reaganomics was a good idea is doing well in politics so I guess stupidity is pretty wide spread.

 

[PhilsFan]

Let's stop acting like Trump is the worst case scenario. Cruz is the worst case scenario.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

oh well in japan whoever said that mirroring Reaganomics was a good idea is doing well in politics so I guess stupidity is pretty wide spread.

All hail Abenomics?

 

[Irvine511]

Let's stop acting like Trump is the worst case scenario. Cruz is the worst case scenario.

True. But Cruz is who the Clintonistas most want to run against in the general. A President Cruz would be a disaster, no one will want him to win, not even his own party.

So long as it remains a three-way race, Trump will come out on top. I also think his recent comments in support of healthcare for all (!!) and Planned Parenthood (!!!) mark clear differences between him and the national party platform, enough so that if a brokered convention hands the keys to Rubio, he runs as a third party.

The only competitive ticket for the GOP I can see at the moment would be Rubio/Kasich, because FL and OH are must-wins to get to the White House. If the GOP doesn't win those, there's no prayer.

My guess is that the coming general election may be "close" -- on paper, the media will need it to be so that there's a reason to turn on the TV -- but the outcome may never really be in doubt and Mrs Clinton sails to a 51% victory. Because that's our divided electorate.

 

[BVS]

A Trump presidency (or, let's be honest, a Cruz one) would make the global view of the Bush years seem positive and laudatory. Think about how much work Obama's done to patch up relations since 2008. All of that will be undone, and more. I hate to think what subsequent presidents would have to do to restore America's global stature.

A Trump or Cruz presidency will absolutely be a step backwards, the problem is that their supporters see that as a good thing. It's a celebration of ignorance, it would be Idiocracy coming true to life. It's petrifying to think about.


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[LuckyNumber7]

I fear that the dem voting base is not fire up, simply because there isn't a current problem.

 

[BVS]

I fear that the dem voting base is not fire up, simply because there isn't a current problem.

What do you mean by "isn't a current problem"?

I think they're not fired up due to the candidates.


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[LuckyNumber7]

What do you mean by "isn't a current problem"?

I think they're not fired up do to the candidates.


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That's true, but I also feel like president Bush leaving the nation in a shit hole turned a lot of moderates away from the right and vehemently opposing establishment GOP re-election.

 

[BVS]

That's true, but I also feel like president Bush leaving the nation in a shit hole turned a lot of moderates away from the right and vehemently opposing establishment GOP re-election.

I see what you're saying. I have a feeling that all changes when a Trump or Cruz gets the nom.


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[Mack_Again]

All hail Abenomics?

all hail the system that obviously doesn't work.

 

[Oregoropa]

If I were Rubio I'd be nervous about getting too many endorsements from establishment types. Haley, Gowdy, and Tim Scott are rockstars to the Republican base and that helped him in SC. If he gets Romney, Graham, and McCain to come out to support him that would drag him down when the electorate is in an insurgency mood.


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[LuckyNumber7]

I swear, there is no more cracked out US Representative than my very own district's Alan Grayson.

Dude is a staunch liberal firebrand. Lost his position. Redistricted. Won again in 2012. Probably the weirdest person in congress. Been accused of properly mismanaging his hedge funds for political benefit. He's pretty rich. In a big legal debacle with his wife of like many years. Seeking annulment on bigamy charges. Also seeking Marco Rubio's senate seat. Harry Reid asked him to step down. Surprisingly none of this actually hurts him.

Oh, and he is effectively pawning off his superdelegate by letting his supporters vote on it (which subsequently leads to a donate-to-his-campaign link).

I love this man, he's a riot. Here's an email he sent us:

Dear Christopher,

My Tea Party foes can be very belligerent.

I started getting death threats from them in 2009. We kept them in a manila folder. It eventually grew into an accordion folder.

I didn’t let them knuckle me under. That’s one reason why I deserve your support before Thursday's deadline. Give $22.12 — our average online donation — to help us reach $1,000,000 online by the end-of-month deadline.

It irked me, greatly, when they dragged my children into this. I invited two of my kids to join me at an August “town hall” meeting. A national hate radio host gave out the meeting information, and invited his tea party storm-troopers to bust it up. Since space was limited, we opened attendance only to constituents – people who actually lived in my district. The tea party undead from outside the district, possessed by their hatred, circled the building and started to chant “F*ck Alan Grayson.” My children could hear it.

As I said, this irked me. But it didn’t get me off my game. I continued to fight against tea party lunacy, and for justice, equality and peace. That’s another reason why I deserve your support today >>

We reached the pinnacle of perfidy, the crest of contempt, the summit of shame, when I was in DC one day, about to vote on the Affordable Care Act. Some tea party wretch called my home number in Orlando. My five-year-old son hit the speaker button. Thinking that it was me, she said to my son, “if you vote for healthcare, I’ll kill you.”

I heard about it, and then I voted for healthcare. Healthcare for all. And to hell with her.

I won’t cave in, I won’t give up, I won’t retreat, I won’t submit and I won’t surrender. But I can’t do this alone. I need your help.

Help me keep my campaign going, no matter how viciously they attack me, by making your contribution now >>

I’m been standing up to all the haters for years now. Will you stand with me?

Courage,

Rep. Alan Grayson

“Well, I won’t back down.
No, I won’t back down.
You can stand me up at the gates of Hell,
But I won’t back down.”

- Tom Petty, “I Won’t Back Down” (1989).

"I deserve your monetary support because the tea party sent death threats to me." Lol.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Lulz. Trump is at 50 points in the most recent Massachusetts poll, 34 ahead of Rubio who is at 16.

Trump is at 35 points in Michigan, 18 ahead of Kasich who is sitting at 17 percent.

All those establishment types are going to be kicking themselves for wasting time quarreling with each other...unless people coalesce behind Rubio soon, Trump is going to seal up this nomination very, very quickly.



On a side note, it's a tie between Sanders and Clinton in Massachusetts. I'm sure he'll end up beating her there. I mean, god forbid he doesn't, the race would be over immediately and Sanders would basically be just piling up delegates in hopes of a Clinton scandal or health issue before the convention...which is basically what both Clinton and Sanders are planning to do if they're in the loser's seat by the end of this thing. Can't really blame 'em as the nomination's theirs if the other person doesn't stand up to scrutiny by the time the convention rolls around.

Clinton leads Sanders by 13 points in Michigan, but he still has plenty of time to catch her and has already outperformed his poll numbers in the states that have already voted.

 

[BVS]

unless people coalesce behind Rubio soon, Trump is going to seal up this nomination very, very quickly.

Less than 20 hours ago you were saying Rubio had it in the bag



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[Headache in a Suitcase]

There is a lot of logic behind the idea that Trump has a ceiling and once the riff raf are eliminated the establishment candidate left standing will surge past him.

It's not a crazy idea, and there are a lot of stats that back it (like the idea that almost all late deciders go with anyone other than Trump).

But the longer these dopes stay in the race, the more likely it is that this dipshit actually gets the nomination.

 

[U2DMfan]

He's like a cat chasing a laser light. His "analysis" on the previous page was based on Trump not being anyone's second choice...in a race of 6-8 people. Once it becomes Trump vs Cruz vs Rubio, Trump will be the 2nd choice of both Rubio and Cruz supporters. The establishment utterly despises Cruz. And Cruz folk utterly despise the establishment.

If his name were "Donald Jones", and Jones had won SC, NH, finished 2nd in Iowa, this would already be over. Not to mention destined to clean house on ST. His biggest hurdle is electability and ironically, because of his 'perfect storm' nature, he's the only electable choice they have. If he is not their nom, at this point, it would be stunning.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I don't think trump has hit his ceiling, but I agree with the notion that he's got the latest anti-sentiment in the pack.

I'm just curious as to how RUBIO can successfully secure a majority. Ultimately I think Trump = Trump_i + Cruz + Carson and Rubio = Rubio_i + Kasich + Bush. The X factor is Ted Cruz. What percentage of Ted's base is strictly anti-establishment? And does that anti-establishment mindset win over the anti-Trump sentiment?

 

[BVS]

So there's whisperings of a former Trump campaign consultant coming out about how this whole thing has been an exercise in media manipulation. Even details as to how they'd be able to do this using very little of his own money and how the timing was chosen so that he could film Apprentice in case it didn't take off.

It's not sourced well right now, but man that would be the greatest "October" surprise ever.

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[LuckyNumber7]

Well it's stating the obvious.

Ive personally been telling everyone that he spent time on WWE with the sole intention of learning mass public speaking in front of dumb conservatives, and getting firsthand witness as to how a heel or tweener character can be so easy to love.

It wasn't an accident.