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Old 02-22-2016, 11:12 AM   #621
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All hail Abenomics?
all hail the system that obviously doesn't work.
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Old 02-22-2016, 01:01 PM   #622
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If I were Rubio I'd be nervous about getting too many endorsements from establishment types. Haley, Gowdy, and Tim Scott are rockstars to the Republican base and that helped him in SC. If he gets Romney, Graham, and McCain to come out to support him that would drag him down when the electorate is in an insurgency mood.


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Old 02-22-2016, 01:44 PM   #623
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part V

I swear, there is no more cracked out US Representative than my very own district's Alan Grayson.

Dude is a staunch liberal firebrand. Lost his position. Redistricted. Won again in 2012. Probably the weirdest person in congress. Been accused of properly mismanaging his hedge funds for political benefit. He's pretty rich. In a big legal debacle with his wife of like many years. Seeking annulment on bigamy charges. Also seeking Marco Rubio's senate seat. Harry Reid asked him to step down. Surprisingly none of this actually hurts him.

Oh, and he is effectively pawning off his superdelegate by letting his supporters vote on it (which subsequently leads to a donate-to-his-campaign link).

I love this man, he's a riot. Here's an email he sent us:

Quote:
Dear Christopher,

My Tea Party foes can be very belligerent.

I started getting death threats from them in 2009. We kept them in a manila folder. It eventually grew into an accordion folder.

I didn’t let them knuckle me under. That’s one reason why I deserve your support before Thursday's deadline. Give $22.12 — our average online donation — to help us reach $1,000,000 online by the end-of-month deadline.

It irked me, greatly, when they dragged my children into this. I invited two of my kids to join me at an August “town hall” meeting. A national hate radio host gave out the meeting information, and invited his tea party storm-troopers to bust it up. Since space was limited, we opened attendance only to constituents – people who actually lived in my district. The tea party undead from outside the district, possessed by their hatred, circled the building and started to chant “F*ck Alan Grayson.” My children could hear it.

As I said, this irked me. But it didn’t get me off my game. I continued to fight against tea party lunacy, and for justice, equality and peace. That’s another reason why I deserve your support today >>

We reached the pinnacle of perfidy, the crest of contempt, the summit of shame, when I was in DC one day, about to vote on the Affordable Care Act. Some tea party wretch called my home number in Orlando. My five-year-old son hit the speaker button. Thinking that it was me, she said to my son, “if you vote for healthcare, I’ll kill you.”

I heard about it, and then I voted for healthcare. Healthcare for all. And to hell with her.

I won’t cave in, I won’t give up, I won’t retreat, I won’t submit and I won’t surrender. But I can’t do this alone. I need your help.

Help me keep my campaign going, no matter how viciously they attack me, by making your contribution now >>

I’m been standing up to all the haters for years now. Will you stand with me?

Courage,

Rep. Alan Grayson

“Well, I won’t back down.
No, I won’t back down.
You can stand me up at the gates of Hell,
But I won’t back down.”

- Tom Petty, “I Won’t Back Down” (1989).
"I deserve your monetary support because the tea party sent death threats to me." Lol.
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Old 02-22-2016, 02:15 PM   #624
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Lulz. Trump is at 50 points in the most recent Massachusetts poll, 34 ahead of Rubio who is at 16.

Trump is at 35 points in Michigan, 18 ahead of Kasich who is sitting at 17 percent.

All those establishment types are going to be kicking themselves for wasting time quarreling with each other...unless people coalesce behind Rubio soon, Trump is going to seal up this nomination very, very quickly.



On a side note, it's a tie between Sanders and Clinton in Massachusetts. I'm sure he'll end up beating her there. I mean, god forbid he doesn't, the race would be over immediately and Sanders would basically be just piling up delegates in hopes of a Clinton scandal or health issue before the convention...which is basically what both Clinton and Sanders are planning to do if they're in the loser's seat by the end of this thing. Can't really blame 'em as the nomination's theirs if the other person doesn't stand up to scrutiny by the time the convention rolls around.

Clinton leads Sanders by 13 points in Michigan, but he still has plenty of time to catch her and has already outperformed his poll numbers in the states that have already voted.
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Old 02-22-2016, 02:33 PM   #625
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unless people coalesce behind Rubio soon, Trump is going to seal up this nomination very, very quickly.

Less than 20 hours ago you were saying Rubio had it in the bag



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Old 02-22-2016, 03:14 PM   #626
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There is a lot of logic behind the idea that Trump has a ceiling and once the riff raf are eliminated the establishment candidate left standing will surge past him.

It's not a crazy idea, and there are a lot of stats that back it (like the idea that almost all late deciders go with anyone other than Trump).

But the longer these dopes stay in the race, the more likely it is that this dipshit actually gets the nomination.
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:17 PM   #627
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He's like a cat chasing a laser light. His "analysis" on the previous page was based on Trump not being anyone's second choice...in a race of 6-8 people. Once it becomes Trump vs Cruz vs Rubio, Trump will be the 2nd choice of both Rubio and Cruz supporters. The establishment utterly despises Cruz. And Cruz folk utterly despise the establishment.

If his name were "Donald Jones", and Jones had won SC, NH, finished 2nd in Iowa, this would already be over. Not to mention destined to clean house on ST. His biggest hurdle is electability and ironically, because of his 'perfect storm' nature, he's the only electable choice they have. If he is not their nom, at this point, it would be stunning.
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:23 PM   #628
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I don't think trump has hit his ceiling, but I agree with the notion that he's got the latest anti-sentiment in the pack.

I'm just curious as to how RUBIO can successfully secure a majority. Ultimately I think Trump = Trump_i + Cruz + Carson and Rubio = Rubio_i + Kasich + Bush. The X factor is Ted Cruz. What percentage of Ted's base is strictly anti-establishment? And does that anti-establishment mindset win over the anti-Trump sentiment?
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:56 PM   #629
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part V

So there's whisperings of a former Trump campaign consultant coming out about how this whole thing has been an exercise in media manipulation. Even details as to how they'd be able to do this using very little of his own money and how the timing was chosen so that he could film Apprentice in case it didn't take off.

It's not sourced well right now, but man that would be the greatest "October" surprise ever.

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Old 02-22-2016, 04:14 PM   #630
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Well it's stating the obvious.

Ive personally been telling everyone that he spent time on WWE with the sole intention of learning mass public speaking in front of dumb conservatives, and getting firsthand witness as to how a heel or tweener character can be so easy to love.

It wasn't an accident.
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Old 02-22-2016, 04:49 PM   #631
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Less than 20 hours ago you were saying Rubio had it in the bag
Yeah, but after seeing the poll numbers in those two states...I mean, how the hell are they really going to catch the guy at this point?

Kasich is clearly a huge part of the problem. He's doing surprisingly well in a lot of states and if he runs through Super Tuesday, he could cut off Cruz and Rubio from reaching the various thresholds needed to earn delegates in certain states. I mean, those poll results I posted would lead to all the other candidates conceivably falling under 20% each in those two states which would mean Trump would get all of the delegates if they have such a threshold in place.
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Old 02-22-2016, 04:50 PM   #632
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Wow, just looked at the 538 website. Didn't realize how good of shape Hilary was in. For some reason it felt like the media was making it sound like she's in deep deep trouble.

Then again, I've been really busy playing the Wii lately.
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Old 02-22-2016, 04:57 PM   #633
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He's like a cat chasing a laser light. His "analysis" on the previous page was based on Trump not being anyone's second choice...in a race of 6-8 people. Once it becomes Trump vs Cruz vs Rubio, Trump will be the 2nd choice of both Rubio and Cruz supporters. The establishment utterly despises Cruz. And Cruz folk utterly despise the establishment.
Well, that's really the big question here...is Trump going to pick up supporters as these other candidates (such as Carson and Kasich real soon) flee the race. There's a lot of conflicting information out there and there's even polling saying 70% of Republicans don't want Trump as their nominee (which mathematically doesn't make much sense as Trump has been hovering well above 30% nationwide lately).

Trump actually addressed this same issue after South Carolina, complaining about the media saying how nobody would flock to his camp after their favored candidates dropped out (he thinks plenty will). But we've yet to see much evidence of him clearing the hypothesized ceiling of about 40% once a few more people left the race. Likewise, Trump continues to underperform his polling every single time which means he's picking up absolutely nobody from the other camps...so far.
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Old 02-22-2016, 05:06 PM   #634
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Wow, just looked at the 538 website. Didn't realize how good of shape Hilary was in. For some reason it felt like the media was making it sound like she's in deep deep trouble.

Then again, I've been really busy playing the Wii lately.

She's tied in actual pledged delegates...Super Tuesday states and South Carolina are a more favorable calendar to her than Sanders, but if he passes her in nationwide support (and he's getting awfully close, trailing by about 5% in the average of the most recent polls), things can start flipping in his direction real soon.

The superdelegate count is essentially meaningless. I don't think the party with "democracy" in their friggin' name is just going to ignore the will of the voters if Bernie ends up with more pledged delegates at the end of this thing, especially when his supporters skew way younger. Why on earth would you piss off potential Democratic voters for the next sixty years in order to appease the ones that will be dead in the next fifteen? And for a candidate with more baggage that performs worse against the potential GOP nominees in polling? Not going to happen.

I do think she's in an extremely favorable position though and I'd give Sanders maybe a 10-15% chance at taking this thing home. If he passes her in nationwide support not long after Super Tuesday though, I think he'll end up winning the nomination as people don't really leave Bernie's camp once they've decided on the guy...it's generally a constant upward trajectory in nationwide polling for Sanders and I don't see how Clinton can reverse that once he clears 50% and the bandwagon effect begins to take over. In fact, that's entirely the reason why her campaign decided to dump so much money in these early states because they were worried about a few early state victories launching him above Clinton nationally and destroying her campaign exactly like in 2008.

As for the why of all of this, there's still a ton of Americans that don't have the slightest clue who Bernie Sanders is and what his campaign is all about and that even includes a sizable chunk of the black electorate in South Carolina according to recent polling they did there. In other words, his rise in polls is basically because people don't know who he is yet...the question now is just where exactly is his ceiling.

Personally, I think Sanders is going to need to get out to about a 53-47 lead over Clinton nationally sometime towards the end of March/early April to end up taking this thing home. That would give him maybe a 55-45 lead in the later states on the calendar since they're more favorable to him and that would make up for a lot of the delegate gap he's going to have after Super Tuesday. There's no way Sanders wins this thing simply by passing Clinton in national polling on the way because he's going to have to make up a lot of ground that he gave up to Clinton in South Carolina/Super Tuesday states. She's going to put up massive victories in the Southern states.

It's all possible, but not likely. As much as I want Sanders to win, I do take an objective look at all of this and the math's going to be dicey.
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Old 02-22-2016, 05:35 PM   #635
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The lack of specificity and the implausibility of the Sanders campaign is starting to set it, I think. Because he is running to make a (really good) point, and because he's a shrewd and skilled politician, I can see how he caught fire amongst white liberals and college kids. Everyone wants a taste of that '08 again. But Bernie is no Barack, as evidenced in the comparatively lower turnout rates so far. Democrats can't win without enthusiastic minorities, and the kids do a really bad job turning out when they don't have Obama to vote for. Better to rely on labor union muscle. My sense is that reality is starting to settle in -- the Clinton campaign steadied the ship in Nevada, and will likely sail on to the inevitable. And even if she is indicted or drops dead of a stroke, Biden will swoop in.

I don't think the damn world's gone crazy. I think we have a section of the electorate on both sides that are still traumatized by endless war and the Great Recession and the devastation of 8 years of Bush/Cheney. That therapy is happening now in the primaries.

What Hillary needs is to find a reason for running beyond "I'll do a really good job." My sense is they've stumbled upon that with "I am not a single issue candidate."
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Old 02-22-2016, 05:48 PM   #636
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Surely Hillary's reason for running is 'it's my turn, now vote for me or else'. I'm not even being flip, that is it. It's her turn, she is the anointed, now get ready for more of the same.
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Old 02-22-2016, 05:58 PM   #637
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Surely Hillary's reason for running is 'it's my turn, now vote for me or else'. I'm not even being flip, that is it. It's her turn, she is the anointed, now get ready for more of the same.




Maybe. But I think she can say, with reason, "I have the best resume here. No one can match my experience, credentials, and grasp of policy."

Of course, that's a reason to run for the Senate, not so much the presidency, which is an entirely different beast altogether.
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Old 02-22-2016, 06:07 PM   #638
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Well, I would argue that being either a governor or a presidential cabinet member are probably the two most qualifying roles for POTUS.

I'll never understand why that's not a bigger deal versus the flurry of senators that routinely outperform the governors.
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Old 02-22-2016, 06:13 PM   #639
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I think Sec of State is, absolutely, a great resume item to have.

What I'm speaking towards is the fact that successful presidential campaigns lay out a single, simple vision of the future.

Morning in America. Change we can believe in. Make America Great Again.

I don't see that yet with Hillary. It's still a bit Tracey Flick to me. But that's better than "no more homework!"
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Old 02-22-2016, 06:33 PM   #640
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But Bernie is no Barack, as evidenced in the comparatively lower turnout rates so far. Democrats can't win without enthusiastic minorities, and the kids do a really bad job turning out when they don't have Obama to vote for.
Sanders has actually outpaced Obama in support from young voters.

Now are more young people showing up to the polls than in 2008 or are they a bigger share of the primary electorate this time around? I have no clue. But Sanders is getting a bigger share of the youth vote against Clinton than Obama did eight years ago.

I don't personally think the two are comparable. Obama was never on the far left although he did give lip service in the primaries to a lot of far left positions that he ultimately made no improvements on or failed to start on in the first place. We have a country moving leftward so it would only make sense that the youngest voters (always the most liberal of all) are also the most liberal voters we've ever had. Period.


Turnout is also lower because it's less competitive. Obama, even in the fall of 2007, looked like a contender that could defeat Hillary Clinton. Sander's odds are a lot worse and it's likely that a bunch of Democrats consider it a done deal that Clinton will be the nominee, thus they aren't even going to bother to show up to the polls. I honestly think it helps Sanders in the way that sparsely attended primaries led to tea party activists toppling Republican members of congress. The lower turnout allows the more devoted to have a say and it's exactly why the prognosticators are giving the upper hand to Sanders in the remaining caucus states.

I do think black turnout won't be as high as it was in 2008 - in both the primary and the general election. I just can't see it matching what it was eight years ago when there isn't a black person running in this primary and the stripping of the VRA has now disqualified hundreds of thousands from being able to vote because they lack the newly required IDs, etc. So, if the polls are expecting South Carolina's record 55% of primary voters being black to be matched, then they're definitely weighted wrongly.
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