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Old 06-17-2016, 01:40 PM   #1001
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More interestingly is you bringing up the coming election years. Dems could have quite a line up. Booker, Castro, Warren, Jack Conway, Beau Biden, Kirstin Gilibrand, Gavin Newsom are all interesting plays.
ALL ESTABLISHMENT!!!! We need candidates who will never waver on their ideals.

I think the Dem Party looks pretty good going forward. I'd like to see some candidates with new ideas on foreign policy, but to be fair it's such a delicate, always moving/evolving subject.

I wouldn't see Warren as someone who would continue the Obama Drone program, but the rest would probably fall in line. I actually don't mind the drones. There are a lot of sensitive lines to be drawn with it (albeit it if you fall under "War On Terror", it fits), but in dealing with Terrorism, I'm not sure there's a better military strategy than drones and special forces.
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:40 PM   #1002
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I mean, there will be a lot of people jonesin' to become President in 2024, but it doesn't mean any of them will come anywhere close to sniffing that nomination.

Castro for example has no shot at it unless Clinton scoops him up here in what everyone in the media has said would be a blatant play for the latino vote. If she doesn't, then he's not really a politician and doesn't have much of a shot at being the potential nominee eight years down the road.

Gavin Newsom's trajectory has clearly been to the Presidency, ever since 2003 when he accepted Republican money and agreed to bring a pointless waste of money train to Chinatown in order to narrowly defeat the Green candidate for mayor. Unfortunately, he got major cock-blocked by the Jerry Brown resurgence, but there's no chance he doesn't make a play for the Presidency in 2024. It will be six years into his inevitable time as Governor of America's largest state and it's the only window he has to not face an incumbent President.

At the end of the day, if Clinton's pick isn't old, they're going to be tough to beat for the nomination. Nearly impossible, even. The party apparatus is always going to line-up behind the former VP and so will most of the public.

There will kind of be a hilarious uniformity to the entire thing. You'll be served up the one potential Democratic nominee on a platter who will then inevitably win the general election in a landslide every four years thanks to the changing demographics of this country. Who needs to vote when we can just have the Presidents choose the next one for us?
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:41 PM   #1003
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The latter part doesn't really matter. Blacks voted for Obama like 91-9, so this would hardly be any different. The Latino factor is pretty discouraging for him though as he would conceivably do far worse than even Romney, but as I had mentioned before from a FiveThirtyEight post, Latinos and Asians don't really matter when it comes to the Electoral College. The former group is heavily concentrated in blue/red states and the latter in blue states. Neither has that much of a presence to really be the factor in moving a swing state more than they already have in the recent past.

Now, Latinos will play a factor in helping win states like Colorado and Florida, mind you, but their turnout and support of Clinton will probably be barely any different from what they did for Obama in 2012 in those states.
I think this year it will matter more. I believe that you can add Nevada and Arizona to the list of states that could very well be blue this time around.
The trends are showing that the share of hispanic voters is rising by about 4 points every election cycle. Add into that them being energized to vote against Trump, and there you have it.

Romney got about 25% of the hispanic vote. At this point, Trump will be lucky to hit 15...
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:44 PM   #1004
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I actually don't mind the drones. There are a lot of sensitive lines to be drawn with it (albeit it if you fall under "War On Terror", it fits), but in dealing with Terrorism, I'm not sure there's a better military strategy than drones and special forces.
As a lawyer I understand on an intellectual level what the issue is with drones. But of all American foreign policy positions, this one bothers me the least to be honest.
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:46 PM   #1005
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I only vote for who I'm told.
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:47 PM   #1006
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Trump's vote total among Latinos compared to Romney actually could be quite similar mind you. Plenty of more conservative minded Latinos out there that aren't down with illegal immigration.

But yeah, if the high amount of Latino registration recently is anything to go by, his actual percent total of that vote should precipitously drop given the expected higher Latino turnout.

I think at the end of the day, the ballot saying Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton will be enough for Trump to get about 40% of the vote nationwide, regardless of what he says or does from here on out.
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:47 PM   #1007
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I only vote for who I'm told.
Indeed, the superdelegates chose for you. Saves time.
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:50 PM   #1008
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Johnson still averaging 9% in three-way national polling. Extra media attention and the sinking Trump ship could very well get him into the debates.

Still becoming more and more common for his and Stein's name to show up in polling. Makes you wonder why they haven't been doing this for years as it's far more accurate.
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:51 PM   #1009
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Traffic sucks today and there are three helicopters circling around my office building... and then I was reminded Trump's in town doing a fundraiser at the country club next store.

He ruins everything.
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:53 PM   #1010
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Indeed, the superdelegates chose for you. Saves time.
Totes. I never think for myself.
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:53 PM   #1011
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As a lawyer I understand on an intellectual level what the issue is with drones. But of all American foreign policy positions, this one bothers me the least to be honest.
Agree. Guess it was a response to posters in here (and other forums, social media) with the disgust of the drones. Obviously a disaster when strikes hit civilians, and I'm of the belief (for the moment) that our Generals and President do EVERYTHING they can to possibly avoid collateral damage or mistakes.

It's such a complex situation with FP. Shifts in ideology and leaders, economic collapses or surpluses, natural resources (oil), tribal conflict dating back thousands of years, technological advances, and climate change.

I don't like the thought, or even execution of being a world police, but I also see it as a if we don't do it, are the consequences even worse?
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Old 06-17-2016, 02:09 PM   #1012
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I honestly don't know a ton about him; my post wasn't completely serious. But he is really popular among Texas Democrats, who see him as a leader of a movement that will eventually result in a blue (or at least purple) Texas.

This is what I was imagining. Clinton doesn't need a particular state to be flipped via a VP or anything like that. A Texan democrat is a bigger picture move.
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Old 06-17-2016, 02:55 PM   #1013
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Yep, i think that right now, Clinton has some tough options to weigh.

What does she need most? I still argue that with the popularity of Sanders, and the amount of new progressive voters he created - She needs Warren to bring them into the fold. She does well with hispanics and AA's, and does ok with women. But needs the younger white women. And Warren could be a boost there as well.

While Booker is more middle of the road, and would boost AA turnout, I think that because Trump is the opponent, Clinton will get a good amount of moderate voters all on her own.

Does she play it safe and pick Brown or Kane thinking it will give her leverage in their swing states?

More interestingly is you bringing up the coming election years. Dems could have quite a line up. Booker, Castro, Warren, Jack Conway, Beau Biden, Kirstin Gilibrand, Gavin Newsom are all interesting plays.
Beau Biden???
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Old 06-17-2016, 02:56 PM   #1014
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I only vote for who I'm told.

i only vote for the name i am more familiar with. because i am a black female.
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Old 06-17-2016, 07:31 PM   #1015
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread IX

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Beau Biden???

That would be a great pick IMO, especially since the dead person vote leans heavy democrat. Might as well lock that demographic up for a while.


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Old 06-17-2016, 07:57 PM   #1016
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More interestingly is you bringing up the coming election years. Dems could have quite a line up. Booker, Castro, Warren, Jack Conway, Beau Biden, Kirstin Gilibrand, Gavin Newsom are all interesting plays.
Quite an interesting line-up.
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Old 06-17-2016, 08:08 PM   #1017
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that would be a great pick imo, especially since the dead person vote leans heavy democrat. Might as well lock that demographic up for a while.


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Old 06-17-2016, 11:08 PM   #1018
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Beau Biden???
More personality currently than the top of the ticket.
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Old 06-17-2016, 11:33 PM   #1019
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He's posted a video today that seems to me to suggest that he will fall behind Hillary.
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Old 06-18-2016, 04:26 AM   #1020
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I heard he's spending the weekend at Bernies.
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