2016 US Presidential Election Thread IX

[Axver]

The plants on my balcony would make for better presidents than Trump.

[Caleb8844]

This election keeps making me think of the time Edwin Edwards ran against David Duke.


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[digitize]

Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2

I actually wholeheartedly agree with this.

I see what you did there. :P


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[BigMacPhisto]

Originally Posted by BVS

Man, I kinda feel sorry for you... I mean everytime you post your math is different; your most recent failure was that you JUST said the majority of the party supported his platform, now you're using your made up 45%. If you're going to make up a number, be consistent.

Because the way I see it when you factor in the people that prefer Bernie's platform but voted for Clinton in the primaries because they feel she has a better shot in November, you quickly get to a majority of Democrats supporting Bernie's platform over Clinton's. It would only take one out of every 11 Clinton primary voters to have that mindset and keep Bernie at roughly 45% within the party.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

Because the way I see it when you factor in the people that prefer Bernie's platform but voted for Clinton in the primaries because they feel she has a better shot in November, you quickly get to a majority of Democrats supporting Bernie's platform over Clinton's. It would only take one out of every 11 Clinton primary voters to have that mindset and keep Bernie at roughly 45% within the party.

Well if you're going to make such leaps you would have to factor in all of those that "support" his platform but either never read it or don't have one inkling of how it will really be implemented, they just like the concept of free stuff.


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[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

Because the way I see it when you factor in the people that prefer Bernie's platform but voted for Clinton in the primaries because they feel she has a better shot in November, you quickly get to a majority of Democrats supporting Bernie's platform over Clinton's. It would only take one out of every 11 Clinton primary voters to have that mindset and keep Bernie at roughly 45% within the party.

Just amazing. Thank you!

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I clearly prefer Bernie Sanders. I'm just supporting Hillary because I'm a self sadomasochist.

[Diemen]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

I clearly prefer Bernie Sanders. I'm just supporting Hillary because I'm a self sadomasochist.

It's the only logical explanation.

[phanan]

Clowns to the left of me
Jokers to the right
Here I am
Stuck in the middle with you

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by phanan

Clowns to the left of me
Jokers to the right
Here I am
Stuck in the middle with you

Ain't that the truth

[BEAL]

In theory, the contest will be over next Tuesday night. All Clinton needs is NJ to put her over the pledged delegate mark. CA would be irrelevant, but it would help her a lot in public perception to win there too.

Trump University has been exposed. It won't matter to his supporters. I find it so baffling that Trump can lie, flip flop, backtrack, etc. Nothing gets said about it. Clinton gets caught in a lie, and she's the most pathological liar the world has ever seen.

Odd dynamic, and one probably that can't be overlooked going into the general. Trump has different rules applied to him, or rules don't apply to him is probably better put.

[trojanchick99]

Trump isn't even a good liar. Most of those checks were dated AFTER the WaPo story. He didn't even bother to back date the checks!

[anitram]

I don't think that it's lack of media exposure of his lies, it's that the people voting for him just don't care.

[BEAL]

It's amazing. The checks were dated last week, after the WaPo story.

Then he gets up for a press conference and gets pissed off that people call him on his shit. And yet, his support will not falter.

His nomination is a failure of every aspect of our society.

[BigMacPhisto]

What can you really expect in a system with only two competitive options? Of course those on the right will get behind Trump regardless of his issues. There's no other choice.

But speaking of other choices, major polling firms are starting to include third party options (Johnson, Stein). We can only hope that holds as a more accurate poll would always include candidates such that are going to get a significant share of state and national votes.

Personally, I think our ballot access system is so draconian and anti-Democratic that I would love it if the Supreme Court ruled that anybody that made it to 270 electoral votes worth of state ballots would have to get a podium in the debates. That would mean adding the two aforementioned people and that's it.

[BEAL]

3rd Party seems like a good idea. In fact, truth be told, I voted for Gary Johnson in the last election. Why? Because I was really fed up with the two party system. I was hoping to see a larger turnout for 3rd Party for this election cycle. As it all turns out, a 3rd Party would put Trump in.....never would have guessed Donald Trump would be a nominee....

But the issue i have with 3rd party is that they are in a position to say whatever they want because they are unknown. For a 3rd Party to really ever have a chance, they would most likely need to conform a bit to the mainstream.

It's easy to get behind a candidate that says he/she will make weed legal, will close all military bases, pull the troops out of every conflict....because those positions would be shot down as soon as it hits the general populace. These candidates would be out of the race.

As time marches on, you start to see the two parties adapt some of these positions anyway (Marriage Equality is probably a good example). Bernie bringing up some very liberal ideas hasn't been a bad thing at all, and some Dems may be able to ride into congress by adapting some of these views.

I just don't see a 3rd party ever making it in this country. Instead I see some of their policies becoming more mainstream and adopted by the Red or blue party

[Bluer White]

Originally Posted by BEAL

It's amazing. The checks were dated last week, after the WaPo story.

Then he gets up for a press conference and gets pissed off that people call him on his shit. And yet, his support will not falter.

His nomination is a failure of every aspect of our society.

The whole U.S. presidential race has been a slow-moving train wreck.

And has it hit rock bottom yet ?

[Oregoropa]

Interesting head to head poll out of New Jersey from Monmouth.

Clinton +4

I'd bet the farm he won't win NJ (I grew up there). However, the New Jersey attitudes bleed over into Eastern PA (where I currently reside). Could be the canary in the coal mine for shifting attitudes in Democrat dominated states stretching west through the Rust Belt. Yes, I know its early and Clinton hasn't closed ranks yet, but I still find this poll quite shocking given NJ's demographics. In the NY media market saturation, I would imagine there is an affinity for Trump that has built up over time.

[BEAL]

Once the VPs are settled I think that's when polling will be a bit more accurate of what to expect.

Right now GOP has backed Trump. Dems have issues


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[BigMacPhisto]

Of great interest:

The State Of The Polls, 2016 | FiveThirtyEight

And as I thought, the polling from Fox News is actually quite solid. So let's not start tossing out their results because of the network's own bias which probably has nothing to do with the nerds they pay to conduct these surveys.

Also, plenty of pollsters do call cell phones just as I had surmised and have taken part in this cycle, and no, I never "opted in"...it's only robocall polling that's technically not allowed now. As long as there's a live person on the line, they are getting to people that don't have landlines. Case in point, polling becoming steadily more accurate in the era of widespread cellphone usage rather than going in the opposite direction.