2016 US Presidential Election Pt. IV

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BVS said:
No way. Her relationship with Wall Street is of concern, but you also have to realize she represents an end of an era. The end of that generation, and the end(at least current) of the big political families. Once the boomer generation fizzles the right, as we know it, will die.
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The whole problem I have is looking at what she represents rather than what she is.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
Rubio was averaging about 15% behind Trump in polls.

Polls = garbage
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In generally, I'm a big polling nut, but when it comes to these election ones, they drive me bat-shit insane, because they break all of the rules and make people distrust polling.

That being said, I'm supremely happy right now.
 
Trump had no ground game. Tough lesson to learn. Everybody below Carson seemed to break to Rubio as an establishment consensus.

Iowa will be Cruz's best state for a stretch. I still think Trump carries NH (barring any Deanish moments this week). I think Rubio will gain momentum once Kasich and Christie drop after NH. South Carolina is the real Battle Royale for the GOP.
 
There were a ton of undecideds still and Rubio was surging going into today (and polls rarely capture the last few days of movement before an election). So, no, the Rubio results aren't unexpected in the slightest, nor is Cruz getting a slight boost from evangelicals as that's what most prognosticators were expecting.

It's going to end up being a tie, basically, between Sanders and Clinton...one could very well win the statewide delegates and lose the meaningless "percentage" race...Sanders really needs the W here though to get a bunch of momentum in future states.
 
Oregoropa said:
Trump had no ground game. Tough lesson to learn. Everybody below Carson seemed to break to Rubio as an establishment consensus.
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Should be noted that Trump dropped about four percentage points in entrance polling after not debating and plenty of interviewed voters said they changed their minds because of that. Might have won this thing otherwise.

I see this race now being Rubio's to lose. The establishment will ignore the deflating Trump and target Cruz like crazy while Rubio racks up victories in states in the North East, etc.
 
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I see next to no chance of Sanders defeating Clinton in the vote percentages, but winning Iowa is all about those state delegates or precinct victories or whatever the hell. Sanders trails by only four with 92% of the results in...going to continue to be a nail biter unless Clinton makes it back into double digits soon.

Kind of funny because it was thought that Sanders' support would be way too intensive in college areas, for example, and that Clinton would cream him in the rest of the state. End result is that Sanders far exceeded his polling and actually was the one with broader support across the state as a whole.
 
Clinton now up by 11 with 94% of the precincts in. Going to be very tough for Sanders to catch her now.

Update: Sanders now down by 9 with 94% in.



Huckabee and O'Malley have quit. Anybody else?
 
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Headache in a Suitcase said:
The GOP will be knocking on Jeb and Christie's doors in the morning
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Both have thrown all their remaining eggs into the New Hampshire bucket. They'll drop out after that one.

I think Rubio stands a good shot at winning New Hampshire now. That would probably lead Trump to exit as well.




Sanders trailing by 11 with 95% in.
 
Sanders now just trailing by three statewide delegates...getting interesting. Sanders trailing the overall vote by only .2%.

No surprise that Clinton wanted to run out and give essentially a victory speech before all the results were in...won't matter much if Sanders gets declared victor and then gets to do his speech to a massive, roaring crowd.
 
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95%. Sanders still down by three delegates.

Should be noted that we've seen three instances of Clinton winning coin tosses for the extra delegate in precincts that were basically tied. Not to mention that O'Malley received 8 delegates this evening.
 
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98% of precincts are in. 689 delegates to 686 to 8 (for O'Malley). Looks like Clinton might have this, but it's possible an error or two could occur and Sanders squeaks by in a few days when the final results are published (as did Santorum over Romney weeks after the fact last time).
 
99.2% of precincts are in. Sanders trails by two statewide delegates. O'Malley's eight certainly would have come in handy...not to mention those countywide ones that Sanders lost via coin flip...
 
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It suggests (but does not yet confirm) that the polling data re: Trump is a mirage. He's polling way ahead in NH, but whether that data will be reflected is very much up in the air. It certainly didn't work out in Iowa, where he had a 5 point lead going in.
 
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Okay, so trying to make sense of American politics is fucked. So I'm going to ask a bunch of questions that I hope someone can answer me without a huge deal of snark.

- I feel like this campaign has been going for fucking ever. Why the FUCK is an election that won't take place until November starting like 18+ months out. What the fuck. (And side Q, how the fuck can people expect Obama to get shit done/be good when this fucking circus is going on.)
- Are the Democrats in a better place than the Republicans? (kinda hard question to answer given everyone will be biased.) Like the Republican race is 10000000x more interesting and entertaining than the Democratic race, but is that a good thing for the Dems? That it's between two of them instead of five or seven or ten like the GOP?
- What is the difference between the last 12 months and today? Why was today so special?
- What the fuck is a caucus?
- What is a delegate?
- Why is Iowa, a state that I had never given thought to in 25-and-a-half years of existence, the most important fucking thing in the world? Why has Trump et al been banging on constantly about Iowa for fucking months?
- Does every single state get a 'caucus'? How are they going to pack 49 more of these things in? Is it always the same order? If so, why, and how did they arrive at said order
- Who votes in a caucus? And what are they voting for? Are these 1,000 or whatever people registered members of either the Dems or the GOP? (And they are voting for the nominee they want to go up in the final election?) Do you have to be registered as a member of one of them to vote in the final presidential election? (If so, isn't that completely fucked up?) Or can you just go and vote on election day if you want to?
- Why do people like Ted Cruz? He is the slimiest looking motherfucker I have ever seen and I'd probably vote for Trump over him for that reason
- Does Trump actually want to be president? Would he even like it? Surely this is just all a show for his ego?
- HOW IN THE NAME OF FUCK CAN A COIN TOSS DECIDE A NOMINEE FOR A CAUCUS. THAT IS SUPREMELY FUCKED UP. SERIOUSLY, SOMEONE EXPLAIN THAT TO ME. IT SEEMS FUCKING INSANE.
- Why do people like Bernie Sanders? I have a hard time getting behind him because every time I see him he just looks an angry old white dude yelling at a cloud. He could drop dead at any moment. It feels a little disingenuous to me, although all that's my prejudices, not his fault. (On this note, it kinda relates to this Azealia Banks tweet that I thought was pretty fucking good - she started a long series of tweets by saying she thinks she'll vote for Trump - I was all ready to be outraged but her series of tweets that followed were kinda hard to argue with)
- Hilary seems a bit slimy, too. I really like Obama.
- On that note, why is it that your system only allows two terms of government? If one president does a real fucking good job (not saying that's Obama, just being hypothetical) wouldn't it suck to replace him/her with someone less good because you have to?

And, finally,

- What happens from now until election day?
 
deep said:
In decent shape. Iowa is a shit state to project other outcomes from.



How do you think he will do in the next two primaries?
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I don't know, and I don't particularly care. But there's a little thing called Joementum, and when it's gone, it's gone.
 
cobl04 said:
Okay, so trying to make sense of American politics is fucked. So I'm going to ask a bunch of questions that I hope someone can answer me without a huge deal of snark.

- I feel like this campaign has been going for fucking ever. Why the FUCK is an election that won't take place until November starting like 18+ months out. What the fuck. (And side Q, how the fuck can people expect Obama to get shit done/be good when this fucking circus is going on.)
- Are the Democrats in a better place than the Republicans? (kinda hard question to answer given everyone will be biased.) Like the Republican race is 10000000x more interesting and entertaining than the Democratic race, but is that a good thing for the Dems? That it's between two of them instead of five or seven or ten like the GOP?
- What is the difference between the last 12 months and today? Why was today so special?
- What the fuck is a caucus?
- What is a delegate?
- Why is Iowa, a state that I had never given thought to in 25-and-a-half years of existence, the most important fucking thing in the world? Why has Trump et al been banging on constantly about Iowa for fucking months?
- Does every single state get a 'caucus'? How are they going to pack 49 more of these things in? Is it always the same order? If so, why, and how did they arrive at said order
- Who votes in a caucus? And what are they voting for? Are these 1,000 or whatever people registered members of either the Dems or the GOP? (And they are voting for the nominee they want to go up in the final election?) Do you have to be registered as a member of one of them to vote in the final presidential election? (If so, isn't that completely fucked up?) Or can you just go and vote on election day if you want to?
- Why do people like Ted Cruz? He is the slimiest looking motherfucker I have ever seen and I'd probably vote for Trump over him for that reason
- Does Trump actually want to be president? Would he even like it? Surely this is just all a show for his ego?
- HOW IN THE NAME OF FUCK CAN A COIN TOSS DECIDE A NOMINEE FOR A CAUCUS. THAT IS SUPREMELY FUCKED UP. SERIOUSLY, SOMEONE EXPLAIN THAT TO ME. IT SEEMS FUCKING INSANE.
- Why do people like Bernie Sanders? I have a hard time getting behind him because every time I see him he just looks an angry old white dude yelling at a cloud. He could drop dead at any moment. It feels a little disingenuous to me, although all that's my prejudices, not his fault. (On this note, it kinda relates to this Azealia Banks tweet that I thought was pretty fucking good - she started a long series of tweets by saying she thinks she'll vote for Trump - I was all ready to be outraged but her series of tweets that followed were kinda hard to argue with)
- Hilary seems a bit slimy, too. I really like Obama.
- On that note, why is it that your system only allows two terms of government? If one president does a real fucking good job (not saying that's Obama, just being hypothetical) wouldn't it suck to replace him/her with someone less good because you have to?

And, finally,

- What happens from now until election day?
Click to expand...

I can only really half-address one of your points, re. Bernie Sanders. You might have a warped idea about older folks in general, I mean, I don't know the guy, but from what I've seen of him, I'm more likely to drop dead at any moment than he is. 74 is not 90.
 
well its the first PRIMARY election and that's why Iowa is decently important. it's not like it's the most important thing.

I think Republican races are interesting because they are manufacturing gossips and events mainly because Donald Trump is pro at this. Dem debate are slightly more somber because they need to contrast against Republican debate.

Bernie Sanders is liked because he promised that he will do something to fix wage gaps and disappearing middle classes. I mean, what's not to like about that? It makes no sense to me that at this point people are not trying to close wage gaps or anything to do with rich-poor difference. He also promises to invest on education (free tuition, etc), improve health care, promote paid maternity/paternity leave.


Well I guess I just made this to my weird promotion for my far-liberal ideas, didn't I?


don't ask me why people like Ted Cruz. I guess some people are just insane


Japanese guy in US explaining US politics to guy in Australia/New Zealand, Im loving this.
 
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Oh, cobl4, I just realised I can answer another of your questions, and a non american to boot. Two term limit - happened because of Roosevelt. He was in office for a whopping 13 years, truncated by ill health and death. His Democratic coalition controlled government for a good deal longer. I guess there was a desire to not lock in that precedent, or whatever (although what they never tell you is, it's consecutive terms. If he was silly enough, Bill Clinton could legally run for president now.)
 
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