2016 US Presidential Election Pt. IV

[digitize]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

Rubio within a percentage point of second place at 97% reporting. Most of the votes left are in strong Rubio territory.

Cruz looks to take it. Trump may drop to third, which would be uuuuuuuge

God, please let this happen.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The GOP will be knocking on Jeb and Christie's doors in the morning

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Clinton hanging on by less than a percentage point

[PhilsFan]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

I hope you do. I am looking for more information because I really haven't decided yet who I would vote for if my primary vote counted.

I don't think you're voting for Sanders out of a desire for political attrition warfare that only ends when the olds die off.

I forgot to respond to this.

Because it is relatively easy (and admittedly somewhat appropriate) to dismiss Bernie Sanders as an unrealistic candidate in a general election, the natural next step is to view Hillary Clinton as the more centrist candidate who can work with both sides and continue the gradual progress made by Barack Obama over the last eight years. However, taking everything about Clinton in and declaring her a center-left, responsible governor is an extremely generous way to look at her.

You are absolutely right about the nomination of the Supreme Court justices being an important part of the executive branch, which is why I will support the Democratic nominee whether it is Clinton or Sanders.

But I worry about Clinton's relationship with Wall Street, her relationship with her big donors (whether to her campaign or to the Clinton Foundation), and that those relationships will have her dabbling in neoliberalism. I worry about her foreign policy. To wit, I worry that the many ridiculous criticisms of her for being a woman or a liberal or the wife of Bill or desperate to appeal to youths (though that last one is exhausting) are going to wash away the legitimate criticisms of her as a beneficiary and supporter of cronyism in politics.

As I have gotten older, I have only really learned how little I truly understand about politics, especially economics. And I want to be clear: both Clinton and Sanders leave me very anxious for this upcoming election. Sanders will make me worry that he'll lose. Clinton will make me worry that the center will continue to move to the right.

[corianderstem]

Did I hear something about a caucus?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGq0SepNvQQ

[BVS]

Originally Posted by PhilsFan

Clinton will make me worry that the center will continue to move to the right.

No way. Her relationship with Wall Street is of concern, but you also have to realize she represents an end of an era. The end of that generation, and the end(at least current) of the big political families. Once the boomer generation fizzles the right, as we know it, will die.


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[Axver]

Oh please let Trump slip to third. That would be hilarious.

Can't believe how agonisingly tight the Democratic polling is. Obviously there was a chance it would be close, but damnit a tight vote and being an election junkie make for an unproductive day at work.

[prbiker15]

How close is this race going to get? This is going to be an interesting primary season.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Rubio was averaging about 15% behind Trump in polls.

Polls = garbage

[Axver]

Where has the most up-to-date figures? I'm following the Guardian at the moment and they have Sanders just .2% behind Clinton. Wow.

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

Rubio was averaging about 15% behind Trump in polls.

Polls = garbage

Iowa Is The Hardest State To Poll | FiveThirtyEight

[PhilsFan]

Originally Posted by BVS

No way. Her relationship with Wall Street is of concern, but you also have to realize she represents an end of an era. The end of that generation, and the end(at least current) of the big political families. Once the boomer generation fizzles the right, as we know it, will die.

The whole problem I have is looking at what she represents rather than what she is.

[bono_212]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

Rubio was averaging about 15% behind Trump in polls.

Polls = garbage

In generally, I'm a big polling nut, but when it comes to these election ones, they drive me bat-shit insane, because they break all of the rules and make people distrust polling.

That being said, I'm supremely happy right now.

[Oregoropa]

Trump had no ground game. Tough lesson to learn. Everybody below Carson seemed to break to Rubio as an establishment consensus.

Iowa will be Cruz's best state for a stretch. I still think Trump carries NH (barring any Deanish moments this week). I think Rubio will gain momentum once Kasich and Christie drop after NH. South Carolina is the real Battle Royale for the GOP.

[BVS]

Polls are dead.

Until they find a legitimate way to poll online it will remain dead.


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[BigMacPhisto]

There were a ton of undecideds still and Rubio was surging going into today (and polls rarely capture the last few days of movement before an election). So, no, the Rubio results aren't unexpected in the slightest, nor is Cruz getting a slight boost from evangelicals as that's what most prognosticators were expecting.

It's going to end up being a tie, basically, between Sanders and Clinton...one could very well win the statewide delegates and lose the meaningless "percentage" race...Sanders really needs the W here though to get a bunch of momentum in future states.

[BVS]

Well one bubble has been burst.


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[BigMacPhisto]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Trump had no ground game. Tough lesson to learn. Everybody below Carson seemed to break to Rubio as an establishment consensus.

Should be noted that Trump dropped about four percentage points in entrance polling after not debating and plenty of interviewed voters said they changed their minds because of that. Might have won this thing otherwise.

I see this race now being Rubio's to lose. The establishment will ignore the deflating Trump and target Cruz like crazy while Rubio racks up victories in states in the North East, etc.

[BigMacPhisto]

I see next to no chance of Sanders defeating Clinton in the vote percentages, but winning Iowa is all about those state delegates or precinct victories or whatever the hell. Sanders trails by only four with 92% of the results in...going to continue to be a nail biter unless Clinton makes it back into double digits soon.

Kind of funny because it was thought that Sanders' support would be way too intensive in college areas, for example, and that Clinton would cream him in the rest of the state. End result is that Sanders far exceeded his polling and actually was the one with broader support across the state as a whole.

[BigMacPhisto]

Clinton now up by 11 with 94% of the precincts in. Going to be very tough for Sanders to catch her now.

Update: Sanders now down by 9 with 94% in.



Huckabee and O'Malley have quit. Anybody else?

[Oregoropa]

Huckabee will end campaign