2016 US Presidential Election Pt. IV
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Kind of true, kind of not. The science of interpreting numbers has advanced, but the actual process of getting input data is a mess. Response rates are terrible, especially among the young. I get the impression that this is less of an issue for the most important polls (general election presidential polls) than other polls, but I'm not sure about that. Eventually, you worry about the problem of garbage in, garbage out.
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bono_212
Blue Crack Distributor
Polling when done right is absolutely solid, but you can't pick and chose who your polling audience is. Otherwise it doesn't work.
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
Really?! Answer me one question, by what communication are most polls being conducted today?
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Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Can you just imagine the first State of the Union speech with President Donald J. TRUMP!?
corianderstem
Blue Crack Distributor
I anticipate he'll have the capitol building (that's where the SotU speeches are, right?) redone in gaudy gold shit, like his ugly-ass home he was always showing off on The Apprentice.
mikal
Blue Crack Addict
I'd say the polling got things very wrong 4 years ago. Remember when many polls had Romney beating Obama in 2012? Maybe they've gotten better since then, not sure on that.
trojanchick99
Rock n' Roll Doggie FOB
That's why you have to study the polls. Nate Silver is the jedi master of polls. He was dead on for 2008, 2012 and the two midterm elections. He goes in depth on which polls to trust based on their methodology. He's repeatedly mentioned that all this early polling means next to nothing.
mikal
Blue Crack Addict
Yep. I remember he was the only one that seemed to know what he was talking about in 2012.
Although even he admits that the raw data coming out of polls is becoming of poorer quality. (Not to say anything bad about him. I think he and FiveThirtyEight are fantastic.)
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Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I saw a poll this morning on CNN that had a possible matchup between Hillary and 3 leading GOPers; TRUMP! / Rubio / Cruz666. Apparently two of the three had a slight lead over Hillary although it was probably within the margin of error.
CNN poll: Hillary Clinton maintains lead over Bernie Sanders - CNNPolitics.com
CNN poll: Hillary Clinton maintains lead over Bernie Sanders - CNNPolitics.com
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It's a national poll, so it's a shade above meaningless.
That said I don't think it's a sure bet that Hillary wins the presidency by any stretch. Honestly I think all the Republicans have to do to ensure a crap shoot come November is to put up a capable candidate who isn't more "hateable" than Hillary.
They apparently this far have failed to get the memo.
That said I don't think it's a sure bet that Hillary wins the presidency by any stretch. Honestly I think all the Republicans have to do to ensure a crap shoot come November is to put up a capable candidate who isn't more "hateable" than Hillary.
They apparently this far have failed to get the memo.
Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
If the GOP had any sense, they would nominate a Christie or Rubio, that honestly should be the ticket and in that order.
However, these are republicans we are talking about. And to put an exclamation point on that, the tea party are going to get their way this time around come hell or high water. They have had enough with the so-called "moderates" from the last two cycles. They are mad as hell and they are not going to take it anymore!
TRUMP! and Cruz666 is the tea party wettest dream ticket since Palin's name was thrown around in 2012 as someone who should get into the race. Some here may not remember that lunacy but i do quite well...they really wanted her to run! Yeah she can't name one fucking newspaper, but who cares, she's a MILF who knows how to shoot a gun!!!
It's nearly a perfect storm with TRUMP! and Cruz666. Throw out all conventional logic, rant about things that piss people off, hurl insults like it's a celebrity cage match roast, add in the "3 G's", a sprinkle of "big gubbermint" and a dash of "wE g0t 2 t@kE 0Ur cuntree b@cK(!)... and you are off to the races.
The sad part is....this hypothetical ticket (TRUMP! / Cruz666 ) could totally win. Hillary isn't anyone's favorite gal by any measure. Maybe she should try and court the Bernie people once her eventual nomination takes place, by say, adding him to be on the ticket. Or does she go after young blood like O'malley?
Either way, hopefully demographics of this country today are enough to stop the tea party express from running good common sense and logic off of the cliff. Otherwise we are totally fucked.
Trying to reason with the extreme right wing fringe tea people is like trying to have sex with a mannequin.....not that i have experience in the latter...just saying. The parts just don't fit either way...in the case of the tea people...i think its the rational brain thats missing and makes the conversation so one sided or off balance. Having sex with the mannequin would likely be much more full-filling, even if there's really no way to...well....you know.
However, these are republicans we are talking about. And to put an exclamation point on that, the tea party are going to get their way this time around come hell or high water. They have had enough with the so-called "moderates" from the last two cycles. They are mad as hell and they are not going to take it anymore!
TRUMP! and Cruz666 is the tea party wettest dream ticket since Palin's name was thrown around in 2012 as someone who should get into the race. Some here may not remember that lunacy but i do quite well...they really wanted her to run! Yeah she can't name one fucking newspaper, but who cares, she's a MILF who knows how to shoot a gun!!!
It's nearly a perfect storm with TRUMP! and Cruz666. Throw out all conventional logic, rant about things that piss people off, hurl insults like it's a celebrity cage match roast, add in the "3 G's", a sprinkle of "big gubbermint" and a dash of "wE g0t 2 t@kE 0Ur cuntree b@cK(!)... and you are off to the races.
The sad part is....this hypothetical ticket (TRUMP! / Cruz666 ) could totally win. Hillary isn't anyone's favorite gal by any measure. Maybe she should try and court the Bernie people once her eventual nomination takes place, by say, adding him to be on the ticket. Or does she go after young blood like O'malley?
Either way, hopefully demographics of this country today are enough to stop the tea party express from running good common sense and logic off of the cliff. Otherwise we are totally fucked.
Trying to reason with the extreme right wing fringe tea people is like trying to have sex with a mannequin.....not that i have experience in the latter...just saying. The parts just don't fit either way...in the case of the tea people...i think its the rational brain thats missing and makes the conversation so one sided or off balance. Having sex with the mannequin would likely be much more full-filling, even if there's really no way to...well....you know.
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Oregoropa
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
You can dry-hump the mannequin
Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
That's flight simulator stuff...im big league now. 
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
Donald hasn't even been elected and he's already singlehandedly saved Christmas.
If you ever need a laugh the comments section on Trump's Facebook is filled with comedy gold. You have to sift through all the vile racism though.
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If you ever need a laugh the comments section on Trump's Facebook is filled with comedy gold. You have to sift through all the vile racism though.
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Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Not that im counting or anything, but the FB page "Fuck Donald TRUMP!" has many more Likes than the FB page "Fuck Ted Cruz666"
I wish people would get to liking that page
I wish people would get to liking that page
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
You guys have clearly been hanging out with the wrong kinds of mannequins.
A Trump Cruz ticket, which is never going to happen, but if it did...
You'd lose every independent voter, and even lose many moderate Republicans.
I don't doubt that the popular vote might come out fairly close, and that ticket would dominate the redder red states... but they would get slaughtered in the swing states.
You'd lose every independent voter, and even lose many moderate Republicans.
I don't doubt that the popular vote might come out fairly close, and that ticket would dominate the redder red states... but they would get slaughtered in the swing states.
Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I am registered Independent but lean moderate to left, this hypothetical ticket would lose me, as they obviously already have. However there are plenty of self-described Independents who are either conservative or libertarian and would love this type of ticket. So i think the Independent voter would be split, how the moderate republicans would vote is another issue.
Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
BigMacPhisto
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In Why Are They Still Running News?...
- Mike Huckabee has vowed to call it a day if he doesn't finish in the top three in Iowa. Unfortunately, that means he'll likely be around until Iowa.
- The next Republican debate will be broadcast on Fox Business on January 14th. The criteria to qualify for the main debate is that you're either A) in the top six nationally or B) in the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire.
This would mean:
Main Debate (6): Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Rubio, Trump
Undercard Debate (4): Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul
Gilmore, Pataki and Santorum aren't even consistently polling at 1% nationally in order to qualify for the kiddie debate. Also, Rand Paul has vowed to not participate in the undercard debate and may well close up his campaign if he's relegated to that one.
Campaigns That Should Be Dead After Iowa If Voting Were Today (6): Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Pataki, Paul, Santorum
Campaigns That Should Be Dead After New Hampshire If Voting Were Today (2): Carson, Kasich
Christie would need to do exceptionally well in New Hampshire in order to keep going. New Hampshire stops Carson in his tracks after two underwhelming states because New Hampshire lacks the evangelical voters he needs (and now lacks in general). Kasich's eggs are all-in on New Hampshire with little to show for it, so he would bow out after that state as well if not sooner.
That leaves us pared down to Trump, Bush, Rubio and Cruz barring a killer New Hampshire performance from Christie. Everybody else is literally rearranging deck chairs at this point as their fates are already decided.
Rubio and Cruz can go very deep with their campaign funds and potential ceilings. Trump continues until his support is clearly low enough that it's not worth wasting his own dime and time to continue. Bush can go on until the money runs out, but that will be sooner rather than later as he'll need to have a high burn rate if he actually wants to win. I guess you could list Super Tuesday as the cash-in date on Bush's death clock.
- Mike Huckabee has vowed to call it a day if he doesn't finish in the top three in Iowa. Unfortunately, that means he'll likely be around until Iowa.
- The next Republican debate will be broadcast on Fox Business on January 14th. The criteria to qualify for the main debate is that you're either A) in the top six nationally or B) in the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire.
This would mean:
Main Debate (6): Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Rubio, Trump
Undercard Debate (4): Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul
Gilmore, Pataki and Santorum aren't even consistently polling at 1% nationally in order to qualify for the kiddie debate. Also, Rand Paul has vowed to not participate in the undercard debate and may well close up his campaign if he's relegated to that one.
Campaigns That Should Be Dead After Iowa If Voting Were Today (6): Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Pataki, Paul, Santorum
Campaigns That Should Be Dead After New Hampshire If Voting Were Today (2): Carson, Kasich
Christie would need to do exceptionally well in New Hampshire in order to keep going. New Hampshire stops Carson in his tracks after two underwhelming states because New Hampshire lacks the evangelical voters he needs (and now lacks in general). Kasich's eggs are all-in on New Hampshire with little to show for it, so he would bow out after that state as well if not sooner.
That leaves us pared down to Trump, Bush, Rubio and Cruz barring a killer New Hampshire performance from Christie. Everybody else is literally rearranging deck chairs at this point as their fates are already decided.
Rubio and Cruz can go very deep with their campaign funds and potential ceilings. Trump continues until his support is clearly low enough that it's not worth wasting his own dime and time to continue. Bush can go on until the money runs out, but that will be sooner rather than later as he'll need to have a high burn rate if he actually wants to win. I guess you could list Super Tuesday as the cash-in date on Bush's death clock.
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BigMacPhisto
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Romney was only even close nationally after the first debate and that was with polls with a much heavier R-lean than the rest of the year. Obama handily led him in any polls that weren't heavily skewed to have far too many Republicans in the sample. Final results showed that the polls favored Romney by 1% more than he actually received. Close enough?
Statewide polling was pretty accurate throughout. Nate Silver managed to get all 50 states right using his model and Ohio never left the Obama camp for the duration...
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BigMacPhisto
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Fair enough, but they've still been generally on target lately and only getting more accurate as Nate Silver would tell you. I certainly agree that they need to do something better than calling landlines though...
Only times polls really drop the ball lately are when turnout is super low. These random elections or off-off-year elections often lead to Republicans winning and basically nobody voting....polling for 2014's midterms would have been more accurate had they known that nationwide turnout would only be about 40%, but there's no way yet to determine that accurately. Presidential years are a lot easier since it always hovers around 60% and they can nail the demographic turnout fairly easily.
BigMacPhisto
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This is the one part in your assessment where you are dead wrong. Ted Cruz has only been behind Bush in raising money and has far more cash on hand than anybody else in the race now that Bush's Super PAC has been throwing money out the window in order to keep his campaign afloat. Weird as it seems, Cruz does have a lot of big donors behind him.
He also has by far the best ground game out there where Rubio has virtually none and all of Christie's eggs are in the New Hampshire basket at the moment. Cruz is visiting dozens of counties in Iowa in the New Year and has a solid presence in Super Tuesday states, particularly in the South. He also has hundreds of top-name pastors in Iowa and Super Tuesday states that have agreed to stagger their endorsements throughout the primary season in order to continually give the guy a boost. Sad as it is, he's the candidate for the evangelicals.
Rubio has hardly any on-the-ground staffers and has made hardly any public appearances compared to the other candidates. It may come back to bite him. Really starting to look like Cruz's race to lose once Trump crumbles (and it will likely happen in Iowa where he lacks volunteers and I doubt people will actually brave the weather to caucus for him).
Bluer White
New Yorker
Well there. 
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
Cruz would be a GOP disaster. Everyone but the true believers know it's all an act and he's a pompous jackass only out for himself. You'd see a lot of defections to HRC because she's not that scary to the Chamber of Commerce crowd.
Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Cruz is already a GOP disaster as a senator.
Mack_Again
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
To me, the existence of conservative party itself is a huge disaster to humans.
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