2016 US Presidential Election Pt. II

[Irvine511]

I still don't think Trump is going to be the GOP nominee.

I still think HRC is going to be the Dem nominee.

I think the GOP nominee will be Bush or Rubio. The VP will be either Kasich or Fiorina. The first is the Biden pick, the second is the Palin pick. Though Fiorina is much smarter than Palin, she still has absolutely no actual qualifications (she's not even a half-term governor).

The Clinton VP will be dependent upon how well Sanders does. If he does well and seems to have galvanized the left base of the party and they're attached to him, expect a Warren-type nominee (but won't be Warren, still don't think we'll see two women on the ticket). If HRC feels credible to the left base, and she can electorally afford to take them for granted, and if the GOP opposition also feels credible, expect a strategic, safe pick from a swing state.

I put a third party run by Trump at 50% chance.

[Irvine511]

Possibilities: Cory Booker, Tim Kaine, Tom Vilsack.

Booker is the sexy rock star. The other two reliable Clintonistas from the South and Midwest. Will depend on the GOP ticket.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

For one we don't set fire to houses where illegal immigrants live. We don't organize mobs to beat them up. It is far more extreme.

I didn't get that far, so how common is that?

Is it more common that the homeless beating, truck attacks, and the overall increase of reported hate crimes on Hispanics in the U.S. by 3 times in 2014?


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[deep]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

I still don't think Trump is going to be the GOP nominee.

I still think HRC is going to be the Dem nominee.

I think the GOP nominee will be Bush or Rubio. The VP will be either Kasich or Fiorina. The first is the Biden pick, the second is the Palin pick. Though Fiorina is much smarter than Palin, she still has absolutely no actual qualifications (she's not even a half-term governor).

The Clinton VP will be dependent upon how well Sanders does. If he does well and seems to have galvanized the left base of the party and they're attached to him, expect a Warren-type nominee (but won't be Warren, still don't think we'll see two women on the ticket). If HRC feels credible to the left base, and she can electorally afford to take them for granted, and if the GOP opposition also feels credible, expect a strategic, safe pick from a swing state.

I put a third party run by Trump at 50% chance.

this is all conventional wisdom, that I typically would not disagree with.
No disagreement on the Dem side. But if Trump comes through this next debate at the Reagan Library still ahead in the polls, and in the early primary states polls, I say he has a 50+ % chance of getting the nom. People are asking the big question, is he a presidential type? But, keep in mind the GOP has had dozens of statewide elections the last couple of cycles where they elected a fringe outsider over an establishment type. One becomes the nominee by winning state wide primaries.

[Mrs. Garrison]

Originally Posted by bobsaget77

Bold Prediction: Rubio wins the Republican nomination.
Trump has to deal with some kind of sexual assault type allegations that will plague his campaign.
Chris Christie eats at least 4 of the other Republican candidates.

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Rubio's ears are way too big for a young guy, that's freakish. He could get the nomination though because he is very sharp, however, he doesn't accurately reflect the anger among republicans the way TRUMP! does.

Christie may eat Graham, Paul, Jindal, and Huckabee. And have Ass Juice for desert.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

. There is enough of a feud between Obama and the Clintons (esp Bill) for Obama to greenlight the DOJ to pursue criminal charges..

Seriously... Just look at these feuding feuders

[BVS]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

Seriously... Just look at these feuding feuders

Yeah it's interesting how right media reports on every golf and Hamptons trip Obama makes but they purposely forget to report who with...

This whole idea that Hillary is on the brink and that Obama is in a feud with the Clintons is complete rw propaganda.

You're just setting yourself up for epic letdown by following echo chamber media.


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[Bluer White]

Originally Posted by Mrs. Garrison

Rubio's ears are way too big for a young guy, that's freakish. He could get the nomination though because he is very sharp, however, he doesn't accurately reflect the anger among republicans the way TRUMP! does.

Rubio needs successful executive experience of some sort, imho.

(And that's not necessarily an endorsement of TRUMP!)

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by BVS

Yeah it's interesting how right media reports on every golf and Hamptons trip Obama makes but they purposely forget to report who with...

This whole idea that Hillary is on the brink and that Obama is in a feud with the Clintons is complete rw propaganda.

You're just setting yourself up for epic letdown by following echo chamber media.

Like I said we'll revisit the postings to see if any predictions come true. I'm calling it.

[Irvine511]

I tend to believe the CW because I do think there is media hype behind Sanders and Trump and this so-called server scandal.

It's still summer. Labor Day isn't even here yet. News is driven by ratings. Trump drives ratings. So does a Clinton in crisis.

We'll know if there's any there there by Halloween. And we won't have any conclusive evidence until January.

[deep]

I still say if Trump can get through this next debate and keep on track he will be in the same or better position that Romney was at in Aug, Sept 2011.
Also, there were many in the mainstream GOP that found a cultist Mormon very unappealing. Some of the same people that were saying Romney, no way are the ones that are saying no way will it be Trump.

[Kieran McConville]

If Trump can stay in the race, somehow, until September or October 2016, why he's in with a shot to be the next losing GOP presidential candidate.



















I hope.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by Kieran McConville

If Trump can stay in the race, somehow, until September or October 2016, why he's in with a shot to be the next losing GOP presidential candidate.



















I hope.

The party decides their nominee, officially, in the summer of 2016 at the convention. If he were to last into next fall it would be as a third party candidate, virtually guaranteeing a Democratic victory.

[Kieran McConville]

I hope he splits the fucking party.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by Kieran McConville

I hope he splits the fucking party.

That's why the GOP is panicking. Black FBI helicopters may be circling the Clinton compound in the Hamptons, but the GOP is self-immolating. It seems to me to be the logical conclusion of white identity politics.

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by deep

there were many in the mainstream GOP that found a cultist Mormon very unappealing. .

Many evangelicals view Mormonism as a cult. I'm sure that dampened numbers.

[BVS]

What religion is Trump faking to be in order to ensure the evangelical vote?


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[Mrs. Garrison]

Originally Posted by Bluer White

Rubio needs successful executive experience of some sort, imho.

(And that's not necessarily an endorsement of TRUMP!)

Yeah that wouldn't hurt...

Originally Posted by BVS

What religion is Trump faking to be in order to ensure the evangelical vote?


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I believe he said he was protestant

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by BVS

What religion is Trump faking to be in order to ensure the evangelical vote?

It's a mistake to think evangelicals vote as a block and want the candidate who can spit the best Biblical-verse. They're looking for leadership and a candidate that can follow through on the National interest and are respectful to their concerns on abortion, support for Israel.

For a good laugh check out the verses generated by the hashtag #TrumpBible

[Bluer White]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

That's why the GOP is panicking. Black FBI helicopters may be circling the Clinton compound in the Hamptons, but the GOP is self-immolating. It seems to me to be the logical conclusion of white identity politics.

Most of America's politicians are well-versed in identity politics.

From the top on down.