Have at it. This thread can replace the myriad others floating around all about the same topic.
I suppose I'll post some of Nate Silver's current data here, for lack of anything better to post. Here are his current swing state probabilities:
Nevada: 77.6% Obama
Colorado: 56.8% Obama
Iowa: 68.3% Obama
Wisconsin: 85.7% Obama
Ohio: 74.8% Obama
Virginia: 54.3% Obama
North Carolina: 81.4% Romney
Florida: 64.7% Romney
New Hampshire: 68.8% Obama
If each candidate wins the states which they have a 50% probability or higher of winning, then the EC map would look like this:
Virginia and Colorado are the closest. They've both done a good bit of flipping back and forth, although there's been somewhat of a trend towards Obama lately. I think that those states could easily go either way. But this does paint a scary picture for Romney. The fact that Romney has never managed to flip Ohio in a majority of polls, or even really come close, even after the first debate, is fairly bad news for him.
The popular vote is a somewhat different story. RealClearPolitics has a +0.9% spread for Romney, but Nate Silver's model still projects a marginal win for Obama. I'm not sure why they diverge; probably because Silver's model is discounting some Romney-leaning polls somewhat. Whether this is bias or the discounted polls are legitimate, I'm not totally sure.
Anyway... have fun. The election is in eleven days. I early voted yesterday! Everyone... get out to the polls when you can.
I suppose I'll post some of Nate Silver's current data here, for lack of anything better to post. Here are his current swing state probabilities:
Nevada: 77.6% Obama
Colorado: 56.8% Obama
Iowa: 68.3% Obama
Wisconsin: 85.7% Obama
Ohio: 74.8% Obama
Virginia: 54.3% Obama
North Carolina: 81.4% Romney
Florida: 64.7% Romney
New Hampshire: 68.8% Obama
If each candidate wins the states which they have a 50% probability or higher of winning, then the EC map would look like this:
Virginia and Colorado are the closest. They've both done a good bit of flipping back and forth, although there's been somewhat of a trend towards Obama lately. I think that those states could easily go either way. But this does paint a scary picture for Romney. The fact that Romney has never managed to flip Ohio in a majority of polls, or even really come close, even after the first debate, is fairly bad news for him.
The popular vote is a somewhat different story. RealClearPolitics has a +0.9% spread for Romney, but Nate Silver's model still projects a marginal win for Obama. I'm not sure why they diverge; probably because Silver's model is discounting some Romney-leaning polls somewhat. Whether this is bias or the discounted polls are legitimate, I'm not totally sure.
Anyway... have fun. The election is in eleven days. I early voted yesterday! Everyone... get out to the polls when you can.