2012 US Presidential Election Superthread

[Axver]

That's a New York Times thing, not a Nate Silver thing. They title everyone. A story about fucking Snooki would refer to her as Ms. Polizzi.

That's just weird.

 

[digitize]

The Economist always refers to people as Ms/Ms Whatever too. And for that reason, probably, it was pretty common amongst the high school speech and debate community when I communicated, at least in Texas, because everyone reads The Economist. But I always somewhat associated it with British English. I think the BBC tends to use it as well.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

There 's some talk of delaying the election. Congress can do that.

I am SO grateful to have made it through the storm. It really gives you perspective and empathy for other people who have suffered far worse.

 

[Pearl]

MrsS

I would be surprised if the election is delayed. It may happen because many in Sandy's path could care less about voting next week.

 

[Liesje]

I don't think what I said is ridiculous at all. Because you are calling what Mourdock said an "off-hand comment", says to me that you don't understand the severity of what he said. To say "off-hand" means that Mourdock didn't think before speaking, which is highly doubtful. To say "comment" is not true because Mourdock was in the position of making a statement.

I hope you realize that many women in this country are worried and even fearful of what will happen if Romney wins and/or the GOP takes over Congress. We are nervous over what will happen to our reproductive rights, which is in the hands of many politicians who clearly are ignorant not only of our bodies, but what we go through each and every day.

 

[deep]

Silver is really hedging, if Silver is all you got, it ain't much

Silver cautions against confusing prediction with prophecy. "If the Giants lead the Redskins 24-21 in the fourth quarter, it's a close game that either team could win. But it's also not a "toss-up": The Giants are favored. It's the same principle here: Obama is ahead in the polling averages in states like Ohio that would suffice for him to win the Electoral College. Hence, he's the favorite," Silver said.

For all the confidence Silver puts in his predictions, he often gives the impression of hedging. Which, given all the variables involved in a presidential election, isn't surprising. For this reason and others — and this may shock the coffee-drinking NPR types of Seattle, San Francisco and Madison, Wis. — more than a few political pundits and reporters, including some of his own colleagues, believe Silver is highly overrated.

"If you tell me you think you can quantify an event that is about to happen that you don`t expect, like the 47 percent comment or a debate performance, I think you think you are a wizard. That`s not possible," Times columnist David Brooks, a moderate conservative, said on PBS earlier this month. "The pollsters tell us what`s happening now. When they start projecting, they`re getting into silly land."

 

[Irvine511]

deep, did you see who wrote that article and where it came from and then read the comments at the end? i notice you didn't provide a link.

because that article utterly and totally misses Silver's point.

 

[deep]

I posted that at my office, now I'm at home

this might be a link to the article

Nate Silver: One-term celebrity? - POLITICO.com

different pollsters, have different success rates at different times, I think.

I got into a conversation with a woman I work with yesterday about the outcome of the election. She first wanted to clarify that I was 'for Obama'. We had a conversation a few weeks back and she got very upset because she did not like what I said my observations were.
I told her yes, I am for Obama, and I know she is for Romney but that did not matter. I was just going to say what I thought the outcome of this election would be based on my observations of reading multiple sources and following these elections as closely as I have from the 1980 election on. What I personally want to happen has no real effect on the outcome.

I am one that thinks the way Silver is doing his handicapping of this election may lead him to be one of the more optimistic Obama win predictors. I think his margin will be less accurate than previous elections.

I still believe this election is very close, if momentum and swing voter trends determine this election, this may be the 4th quarter with a score of 27-24 Obama, but Romney has the ball and he is making good progress for a 6 point touch down.

 

[trojanchick99]

I don't think anyone is disputing that this election is close. We all know it essentially comes down to Ohio. That said, seeing the data, my gut feeling is Obama will win.

Oh and I'd like to thank Bill Clinton for mentioning Climate Change. It's about time someone did.

After Sandy, Bill Clinton rails against Romney on global warming - CBS News

 

[deep]

I think this map will reflect the outcome with one change for sure, and then......

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Colorado will go for Romney, that puts Obama at 281

and with that, again, and I (with others) have been saying this for weeks, it is only about Ohio, I don't have a good feeling about how Ohio will end up, I think the GOP has a huge advantage in how the votes will be counted and tallied. We may end up in court, just like 2000, but the GOP, are better positioned to take this one.

 

[Pearl]

Oh and I'd like to thank Bill Clinton for mentioning Climate Change. It's about time someone did.

After Sandy, Bill Clinton rails against Romney on global warming - CBS News

What bothers me is that despite Sandy, Irene and the recent blizzards, there are still climate change deniers who insist it is nothing but lies. Everything is a conspiracy these days.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

When one chooses not to care, it's one thing.

But when one chooses to deny the existence of global warming, it's ignorance.

 

[deep]

there have always been doubters and deniers

 

[INDY500]

I wonder if global warming was a hot topic in the 1888 presidential race between Glover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison?

How does the 2009 hurricane season fit into "the conspiracy"?

 

[cobl04]

What bothers me is that despite Sandy, Irene and the recent blizzards, there are still climate change deniers who insist it is nothing but lies. Everything is a conspiracy these days.

My favourite is all the right-wing journos and voters who seem to think they know more than scientists who study the shit for a living.

But hey, they're also the same people who murdered all those Italians by causing an earthquake, so who knows.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I'm sure Romney probably believed in climate change before he didn't.

I'll have to Google that.

 

[Irvine511]

I wonder if Romney is going to tell us he doesn't believe in FEMA either, like he did during the Republican debates.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

I'm just going to love hearing all the Republican politicians who talked about how they can handle their problems all on their own without that pesky government aid suddenly turning around and quietly taking any said government aid to help clean up this disaster.

Or they'll actually stick to their guns and won't take it, but they'll try and put the blame for why the aid isn't there to help people on Obama somehow after their constituents start getting angry and wondering why the government isn't helping in the cleanup.

 

[BVS]

I wonder if global warming was a hot topic in the 1888 presidential race between Glover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison?

How does the 2009 hurricane season fit into "the conspiracy"?

It's too early to tell if what we've seen in the last decade of hurricanes is due to climate change, but the number of hurricanes isn't really an indicator. It will be the make up of these hurricanes that really tell us anything. And anyone who understands and respects science knows that looking at ONE year doesn't tell us anything.


You can argue if climate change is caused by man or just a natural cycle, but to deny or call it a "conspiracy" is just covering your eyes and plugging up your ears.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

As somebody who fully believes in global warming I find the politicizing of this tragedy into some right vs left bullshit debate sickening.

All they're doing is trying to find an excuse for decades of inaction by politicians from both sides of the aisle.

Scientists have warned for a long, long that this was possible, that it was a matter of when not if... long before global warming became a political hot button issue. Nobody did anything about it...because, eh, it'll never really happen.

Whether you believe in man made global warming or simply think this is a cyclical period of warming... or believe in both... it doesn't change the fact that this sort of event has been predicted for decades and very little was done to protect NYC's infrastructure against it, both on the local and federal level, from republicans or democrats.

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

I'm not american,but i do follow the U.S election a bit.I've got to say,MSNBC (The Ed show and Christ Matthews show in particular) is the most "Ass kissing to the democrate" tv you can find.Compare to that,FOX news is neutral.

 

[mikal]

FOX news is neutral.

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

I'm aware that FOX news is pro-republican,but the cheerleading for Obama on MSNBC (in particular this week with hurricane Sandy) makes him like he's Moises.

 

[BVS]

I'm not american,but i do follow the U.S election a bit.I've got to say,MSNBC (The Ed show and Christ Matthews show in particular) is the most "Ass kissing to the democrate" tv you can find.Compare to that,FOX news is neutral.

But you're comparing COMMENTARY shows with what Fox is calling news. If you're going to compare, compare the Ed show with Hannity or O'Reiley.

 

[BoMac]

FOX news is neutral.

Tu me niase ou quoi?

 

[Irvine511]

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I hate politicization of this too, but the fact is that Romney believes in private charity and aid for natural disasters. He thinks you can cut government aid significantly and use private aid for the rest. He said so. With something on this scale how is that going to work? I don't see it. Just not realistic at all

Yes infrastructure changes need to be made and both parties are to blame for that. But when it comes to spending the money who is going to agree to do that? Maybe churches like Romney says, or Donald Trump. Both parties need to work together, so how is that going to happen these days?

Right now we can't have any political crap surrounding this. I give Governor Christie credit for the nice things he said about the President.

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

Tu me niase ou quoi?

Relis mon second commentaire ci haut.

 

[Irvine511]

this is politicization i'm entirely comfortable with:

Sandy Socialists
Republican governors order hurricane evacuations so we won’t have to bail you out. Then why do they defend your right to skip health insurance?

By William Saletan|Posted Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2012

Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey, was angry. Monday afternoon, as Hurricane Sandy bore down on his coastline, he berated people living on the state’s barrier islands “who refused to adhere to my mandatory evacuation order and said they were going to ride it out. … We’re putting other people in harm’s way now, too—the first responders—to get them out. So these decisions were both stupid and selfish.” The governor went on:

I asked you please to get off the barrier islands. But there are some towns in Atlantic and Ocean Counties that are only 50 percent evacuated … For those folks on the barriers: You’re putting other people in harm’s way as well. We already have rescues ongoing on the barrier islands. This is putting first responders in significant, significant danger, and it is not fair to their families for you to be putting them in that danger because you decided that you wanted to be hardheaded.

This wasn’t a nice thing to say to people stranded in a hurricane. But it’s true. If you defy government instructions and don’t take basic precautions, you aren’t just risking your life. You’re making the rest of us bail you out. That’s not fair.


What’s odd about Christie and other Republican governors is that they recognize this principle only when a hurricane hits. When it comes to injury or disease, which we know will strike everyone on this planet, the Republican governors defend your right to ride it out. They oppose any requirement to buy health insurance. If you get sick, the rest of us will shell out to rescue you.

A year ago, Christie mocked Obamacare, the federal law that subsidizes and requires the purchase of health insurance. "I have philosophical problems with the individual mandate,” Christie said. "What's next? I am mandated to eat broccoli? What happens if Congress decides there is a crisis in the broccoli industry and mandates us to eat broccoli? … I don't think my government should tell me, besides taxation, how to spend my money.”

Christie refused to prepare for the law’s implementation. He hoped the Supreme Court would strike down the individual mandate. Yet he declined to join a lawsuit against the mandate, arguing that New Jerseyans could “get a free ride” by mooching off other states that had chipped in to pay the lawyers. “They’re spending the money,” he reasoned. “And then, if it’s found unconstitutional, for once, New Jersey taxpayers are going to get a benefit for free.”

Now that a hurricane has struck, Christie excoriates coastal residents and officials for taking the same defiant, tough-it-out attitude. “I’m very disappointed in the fact that some decided to disregard my instruction—in fact, my order” to evacuate, he complained Monday evening:

I’m extraordinarily disappointed in elected officials who decide to tell people to directly contravene an order from the governor. … You have the governor of the state ordering a mandatory evacuation. Once I sign that declaration of state emergency, that power is the power of the governorship. And you have a mayor, a rogue mayor [of Atlantic City], telling his citizens not to leave.

Christie isn’t alone in this selective approach to personal responsibility. Bobby Jindal, the Republican governor of Louisiana, also refused to implement Obamacare, calling it a “blow to our freedoms.” In June, when Democrats found video of Mitt Romney describing the requirement to buy health insurance as a “personal responsibility mandate,” Jindal explained the quote away and protested that such a requirement could lead to “taxes on people who refuse to eat tofu.” But two months later, when Hurricane Isaac pounded Louisiana, Jindal instructed residents to heed evacuation orders and spare “our first responders.” Like Christie, Jindal ended up chiding residents who had failed to listen.

In the health-care fight, Bob McDonnell, the Republican governor of Virginia, didn’t just condemn the individual mandate at the federal level. He signed legislation forbidding it at the state level, too. “The Virginia Healthcare Freedom Act sets as the policy of the Commonwealth that no individual, with several specific exceptions, can be required to purchase health insurance coverage,” McDonnell proudly declared. But when a storm with dangerously high winds blew through Virginia this summer, McDonnell didn’t hesitate to order evacuations. And this week, as Sandy inundated the Virginia coast, he again instructed residents to follow orders and get out.

Hurricanes and health care are different in many ways, of course. Buying health insurance is more expensive than evacuating for a natural disaster. But in both cases, the question is whether you should be allowed to make your own choices when the cost of bailing you out will fall on others. If the state has no business forcing you to buy health insurance, even when the premiums are subsidized, why should it be empowered to order you out of your home in a storm, just to save your skin? Why do Republican governors think they can have it both ways?

Hurricane Sandy: Why does Chris Christie think it’s selfish to ignore evacuation orders but OK to skip health insurance? - Slate Magazine

 

[BoMac]

Relis mon second commentaire ci haut.

Est-ce que t'as lu la reponse de BVS? Fox n'est pas neutre, par ce que ils n'y a pas de distinction entre les nouvelles et opinion/commentaire. C'est bien simple.