2012 US Presidential Election Superthread - Page 11 - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind > Free Your Mind Archive
Click Here to Login
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 11-02-2012, 05:37 PM   #201
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
 
BVS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: between my head and heart
Posts: 41,232
Local Time: 06:19 AM
We have a winner for irony of the year award!
__________________

BVS is offline  
Old 11-02-2012, 06:26 PM   #202
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 33,390
Local Time: 07:19 AM
the right wing blogs are starting to ... well, not panic, exactly, but starting to make excuses (the media! Sandy! traitorous Christie!)

the desperation leads me to think that, maybe, just maybe, Dick Morris might be wrong and Romney won't win 400 EVs.
__________________

Irvine511 is offline  
Old 11-02-2012, 06:28 PM   #203
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Popmartijn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 32,840
Local Time: 01:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by U2DMfan View Post
Karl Rove is generally detestable but not known for spewing bullshit on the air like Dick Morris. That said, Rove gave the Ohio stats on O'Reilly last night.

[...]

Early voting in Ohio has shown that Democrats are down about 170K from 2008 and that Republican are up about 70K from 2008 (comparisons of early voting in 2008 vs 2012) meaning the difference between the early voting (in those raw comparisons) is about 230-240K and the margin with which Obama won Ohio by in 2008 was around 250K. Whatever the case, I remember Rove spinning that they were about even. So he was using facts but just how significant those facts are is the question.

So to sum it up, they are saying that early Republican turnout is smashing early Dem turnout in Ohio. I don't know about the other states but this is really the one that matters. And these numbers are general (only my recollection after seeing it said once by Rove on the air) but you get the idea.
I do see a lot of spin in what you are stating, especially in the conclusions. Rove is saying that they think 70k more Republicans already voted and 170k less Democrats. But he doesn't say anything about the totals, so you can't say that early Republican turnout is smashing early Democrat turnout (for instance, if Democratic turnout is now 330k compared to 500k 4 years ago and Republican went up from 200k to 270k then still more people affiliated with the Democratic party voted). And apparently, it's also difficult to know in Ohio how many people from which political party voted: Who's Really Winning Early Voting? - Molly Ball - The Atlantic
"For an example of the difficulty of reading early voting in these states, take a look at Ohio. Though all voters are technically unaffiliated, the state tracks them by which party's primary they last participated in. By that metric, Democrats lead the early vote, but by a smaller margin than 2008. It's an iffy metric, though, because there was a Republican but no Democratic presidential primary this year, boosting Republican "registration." Both parties have turned to other measures instead: Democrats say more voters have turned out in the precincts that voted for Obama than those that voted for John McCain four years ago. Republicans counter that the counties that went for McCain are turning out at higher rates than those that went for Obama. "

Quote:
Originally Posted by U2DMfan View Post
But the question is - the voting sampling. Forget Dickhead Morris and "landslides"...that's keying in on the wrong issue. Rove used the new CBS/NYT poll as an example.

The poll takers are using 2008 data to frame their 2012 polls.
How do you know they use a 2008 model to frame their 2012 data? How can you be sure that pollsters do not take into account changes in demographics and political composure?

Quote:
And Rove (and unfortunately Dick Morris) and most Republicans are saying that this is why the polls (not only in Ohio but in other swing states) are going to be so off the mark.

And you have to admit - there is some logic to that idea.
I think it's quite telling that persons of the political party that is behind are now saying this. Especially when about every poll (by different pollsters) are saying about the same thing. It can be the case that one or a few pollsters use an incorrect model/algorithm, but dozens of (independent) pollsters?

Quote:
Originally Posted by U2DMfan View Post
Lastly, I know it rankles the feathers of the more ideological Left among us - but check Rasmussen this close to election day. Romney +2. And look at the margin for the three Presidents that lost the popular vote but won the electoral college.
It's interesting that you pick one of the few pollsters that have a demonstrable bias in their results. Based on empirical data (and also their results of the 2010 elections) it appears that Rasmussen overstates its polls by about 2 percentage points in favour of Romney. I don't want to say they have an editorial bias (that they are partisan and willfully manipulating their numbers), but it does appear that either their model of the electorate or their methods in getting the data has some inaccuracies.
Note about Rasmussen
ElectoralVote

Quote:
All I'm saying is - this election is a toss up. Don't believe anyone that tells you different.
The election is certainly close. Though I'm not sure I'll qualify it as a toss-up anymore. Obama clearly has the best chances.
Everyone is saying that Ohio is his firewall. Personally, I see a 3-state firewall: Ohio, Colorado and Virginia. If Obama wins any one of those states then he'll very likely win the election by getting more than 270 electoral votes. Granted, his lead in Colorado and Virginia is even less than his lead in Ohio, but he seems to have a small lead in most of the polls there. Not to mention that Florida again seems to be a tie again.
Besides, not a single time has Romney lead in enough states to get 270 electoral votes. I believe he maxed out at about 250 electoral votes a couple of times. See also the top graph on this page: Electoral College Graphs

While Obama has the best chances, that doesn't mean that he's already in the clear for a victory. Though getting smaller every day, Romney still has a chance to win (Nate Silver puts it at about 20%). And once every while these surprising victories do happen.
Popmartijn is offline  
Old 11-02-2012, 06:50 PM   #204
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
trojanchick99's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Los Feliz, CA (between Hollywood and Downtown LA)
Posts: 8,352
Local Time: 04:19 AM
Popmartjian! You have a better grasp on our election than do many political pundits.
trojanchick99 is offline  
Old 11-02-2012, 09:22 PM   #205
Resident Photo Buff
Forum Moderator
 
Diemen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Somewhere in middle America
Posts: 13,663
Local Time: 06:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511
the desperation leads me to think that, maybe, just maybe, Dick Morris might be wrong


You take that back!!
Diemen is offline  
Old 11-02-2012, 10:29 PM   #206
ONE
love, blood, life
 
digitize's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: New York / Dallas / Austin
Posts: 14,076
Local Time: 05:19 AM
Fairly decent jobs numbers came out today. It will be interesting to see if they have any impact whatsoever on the election. My guess is that they won't, and that there won't be any particularly noticeable shift in the few remaining polls.
digitize is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 12:57 AM   #207
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The American Resistance
Posts: 4,754
Local Time: 05:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitize View Post
Fairly decent jobs numbers came out today.
If the workforce was the same size as the day the president took office the unemployment rate would be 10.5%

Nothing decent about that.
INDY500 is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 06:32 AM   #208
Blue Crack Addict
 
PhilsFan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: South Philadelphia
Posts: 19,218
Local Time: 07:19 AM
And if McCain had been in office it would have been even worse. What's your point?
PhilsFan is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 07:22 AM   #209
War Child
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: in a series of dreams
Posts: 580
Local Time: 06:19 AM
512 Paths to the White House - Interactive Feature - NYTimes.com

Make you bets...
solemole is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 07:36 AM   #210
Blue Crack Addict
 
mikal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Black Lodge
Posts: 26,921
Local Time: 06:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by solemole
This map is so fun to play with. It really shows that Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa are the clear path for Obama. He wins those 3, and he wins the election. He's never talked in the polls in those states.
mikal is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 07:43 AM   #211
ONE
love, blood, life
 
digitize's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: New York / Dallas / Austin
Posts: 14,076
Local Time: 05:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by INDY500

If the workforce was the same size as the day the president took office the unemployment rate would be 10.5%

Nothing decent about that.
And if the stimulus package had not happened, it probably would have been much worse.
digitize is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 09:03 AM   #212
Blue Crack Addict
 
anitram's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 07:19 AM
For a month on month basis this report is excellent because it shows people are returning to the work force. It is the first sign in a reversing trend.

INDY is just sad because he knows that President Obama is here to stay.
anitram is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 09:15 AM   #213
Blue Crack Addict
 
mikal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Black Lodge
Posts: 26,921
Local Time: 06:19 AM
It's funny because there's this Packers forum I post at and they say that Rasmussen polls are the only unbiased ones and that Romney is going to win in a landslide. Pure entertainment.
mikal is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 09:17 AM   #214
Blue Crack Addict
 
anitram's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 07:19 AM
Complete divorce from reality.

It is one thing to believe this is a toss-up (I disagree) but it's completely something else to believe that Romney will win in a landslide. I almost wish I had Fox News to watch on Tuesday night.
anitram is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 09:26 AM   #215
Blue Crack Addict
 
mikal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Black Lodge
Posts: 26,921
Local Time: 06:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anitram
Complete divorce from reality.

It is one thing to believe this is a toss-up (I disagree) but it's completely something else to believe that Romney will win in a landslide. I almost wish I had Fox News to watch on Tuesday night.
Yeah they're basically calling all the pollsters "biased". I almost want to link the forum here. Lol
mikal is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 11:32 AM   #216
Blue Crack Distributor
 
corianderstem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Seattle
Posts: 64,498
Local Time: 04:19 AM
I'm voting for whomever Aaron Rogers is voting for.
corianderstem is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 11:52 AM   #217
Blue Crack Addict
 
mikal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Black Lodge
Posts: 26,921
Local Time: 06:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by corianderstem
I'm voting for whomever Aaron Rogers is voting for.
mikal is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 11:57 AM   #218
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The American Resistance
Posts: 4,754
Local Time: 05:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anitram View Post
INDY is just sad because he knows that President Obama is here to stay.
Indy is just sad because he's lived through a real recovery. A booming recovery after a decade that gave us federal wage & price controls, stagflation and the Misery Index.

Unemployment was over 10% early in Reagan's first term also but he was reelected with 7% GDP growth, 59% of the popular vote and carried 49 states.

Indy is just sad because America is not the land of "it could have been worse" and yet 47%, yes I said it, 47% of Americans seem content with that.
INDY500 is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 12:08 PM   #219
Blue Crack Addict
 
PhilsFan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: South Philadelphia
Posts: 19,218
Local Time: 07:19 AM
The full statement is, "It could have been worse, you could have elected a Republican."
PhilsFan is offline  
Old 11-03-2012, 01:28 PM   #220
Blue Crack Addict
 
MrsSpringsteen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 28,170
Local Time: 07:19 AM
47%? Would that be the entitled victims? Bet there will be even more of those after Sandy too. 5,4,3,2,1 before that starts somewhere. Of course we already had the comment about Gucci bags and massage parlors.

The unemployment rate when Reagan was elected was 7.2 %. He also called it some kind of new dawn in America or something like that. I heard about that on the news recently but I don't have time to Google it.
__________________

MrsSpringsteen is offline  
 

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:19 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com
×