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#841 |
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love, blood, life Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Vision over visibility....
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Election Results: McCain Campaign Manager On The Five Must-Win States
__________________What are your thoughts on this article? Obviously, what it says is true about the states McCain would have to win in order win the election, but how likely do you think they are? |
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#842 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Nov 2002
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I think it will be decided by Ohio and PA
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#843 |
Refugee
Join Date: Mar 2005
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#844 | |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: May 2001
Location: nowhere..........man
Posts: 20,254
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Quote:
desperation maybe? ![]() i agree he should of been campaigning then. |
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#845 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Nov 2002
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Time.com
Electoral Math: For McCain, the Numbers Aren't Adding Up By MARK HALPERIN Sun Nov 2, 11:40 pm ET Barring an extraordinary shock, Barack Obama will win more than 270 electoral votes on Tuesday, giving him the White House. Hours before voting starts, John McCain has no clear path to reaching that same goal. In fact, based on interviews with political strategists in both parties, election analysts and advisers to both presidential campaigns - including a detailed look at public and private polling data - an Obama victory with well over 300 electoral votes is a more likely outcome than a McCain victory. Under the Electoral College system, a candidate wins all of a state's electoral votes as long as he or she achieves a popular vote victory of any margin. Obama's commanding position results from the fact that he holds seemingly impregnable popular vote leads in twenty-four states, plus the District of Columbia, with 291 electoral votes, more than he needs to win. Obama's geographic anchors are the northeast, the mid-Atlantic, the upper industrial Midwest and the west coast, all areas that Democratic presidential candidates have dominated for several election cycles. But he is encroaching on other states as well that have recently been gone dependably Republican, including Nevada, Virginia and Colorado. With his superior spending, better organization on the ground, and poll standing, in fact, Obama actually seems poised to win the majority of the remaining toss-up states. If there is a pro-Democratic/anti-Bush wave cresting, as some top strategists in both parties believe, Obama could take all of the still contested battlegrounds, giving him nearly 400 electoral votes, and a significant multi-regional mandate. The remaining toss-up states are all large ones - Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri - with a total of 84 electoral votes, and were all won by Bush in 2000 and 2004. And some additional western and southern states that are currently leaning towards McCain (such as North Dakota and Georgia) could end up in the Democratic column, lifting Obama over 400. McCain's challenge - and only hope - is to find a way to get just over 270 votes, starting with pulling back into the Republican column some states that appear to be titling clearly towards Obama. Then he needs to sweep the toss-ups, where in almost every case polling shows him behind. Right now, McCain leads solidly or more narrowly in 21 states with 163 electoral votes. McCain's most likely victory scenario is to hold nearly all of the states that George W. Bush won in 2004. The Republican's strategists have claimed for several days that they are closing their gaps in many of the traditionally Republican states to within striking distance. Actually overtaking Obama in enough states to win would require a combination of factors: Obama's get-out-the-vote efforts have to turn out to be weaker than thought; young voters have to fail to channel their enthusiasm for Obama into actually voting; race has to be a bigger factor than most pollsters currently believe it to be; conservatives have to be more fired up than they have seemed; independents have to be more attracted to the Republican ticket than they have been all year; and, most of all, late-deciding voters have to break disproportionately to McCain. If all that happened - improbable at this point - McCain could get to 270 by losing all the states Democrat John Kerry won in 2004, but holding all the Bush states plus two, from a group that includes Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. McCain's other path would be to win Pennsylvania - where public polls have shown Obama with a healthy lead, but where Republicans have invested a lot of resources. That would allow McCain to squeak to victory, even if he lost Virginia, as long as he won one of the four states above. McCain's Sunday night visit to New Hampshire also suggests Republicans see a glimmer of hope in a state that has just four electoral votes, but where Obama has pulled to a big lead in polls. |
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#846 |
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love, blood, life Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Vision over visibility....
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^McCain is more deluded than I thought if he thinks he's going to win Pennsylvania or New Hampshire. There are some states I'm nervous about, but definitely not those 2.
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#847 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Nov 2002
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He thinks he can win NH because of what they've done for him before
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#848 |
Rock n' Roll Doggie
VIP PASS Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: hatching some plot, scheming some scheme
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#849 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Little hand says it's time to rock and roll.
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He will someone post Irvine's old sig about undecided voters. I need to use that.
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#850 |
Blue Crack Distributor
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: I'll be up with the sun, I'm not coming down...
Posts: 53,698
Local Time: 09:53 AM
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I will be up early to vote tomorrow, then go about my day and hope for the best for tomorrow night. I've watched some political shows this week/weekend, but am trying not to get my hopes up either way.
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#851 |
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love, blood, life Join Date: Aug 2006
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I know his reasoning behind it, but I just don't really see it happening. I don't think the reborn neocon John McCain and his far right wackjob of a running mate are going to fly there. I know it's slightly more conservative than a lot of the other north eastern states, but it's not Texas.
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#852 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 28,459
Local Time: 09:53 AM
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designed by an ad agency creative director
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#853 |
ONE
love, blood, life Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Vision over visibility....
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^That's the scariest thing I've ever seen.
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#854 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Little hand says it's time to rock and roll.
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It makes me want some Jell-o.
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#855 |
ONE
love, blood, life Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Vision over visibility....
Posts: 12,332
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#856 | |
Blue Crack Supplier
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 34,039
Local Time: 10:53 AM
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Quote:
Shouts & Murmurs: Undecided: Humor: The New Yorker |
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#857 |
Refugee
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Maryland, USA
Posts: 1,256
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On Saturday's ride I ran across a girl who was parking a VW Golf Cabrio. She had a bumper sticker on the back that she had made out of two others, and it said, "Obama/McCain". I waited for her to get out, and I said, "Interesting bumper sticker".
She sort of giggled and said, "Yeah, I can't decide. I really like them both". ![]() |
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#858 | |
Blue Crack Supplier
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 34,039
Local Time: 10:53 AM
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Sullivan gives us one of the better endorsements i've read:
Quote:
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#859 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,602
Local Time: 07:53 AM
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I expect to vote for Obama
in 2012. He will have had 4 years in the Whitehouse and a verifiable record. Not just stances and programs that he modifies over the course of an election cycle. For about the last 3 months I had expected to want to vote for Obama tomorrow. (not that is matters, he will win CA by perhaps as much as 20%) I would like to say I voted for the first non-white President. I also have serious issues with some of McCain's policies. But, the big Democratic gains in the Senate and House will prevent those policies from being implemented. So, I am left without a desire to vote for either candidate. The good news is by 2012 the verdict will be in on Obama, just like it was for Clinton in 1996. The question is, which Democratic President will Obama be like, Carter or Clinton? |
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#860 |
Blue Crack Supplier
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 34,039
Local Time: 10:53 AM
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^ just as long as you vote "no" on Prop 8, all will be forgiven in my eyes.
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