2008 U.S. Presidential Campaign Discussion Thread-Part 11

[purpleoscar]

Originally Posted by Popmartijn

No, I don't see ass protection. I see a balanced statement.
It's not a black and white world.

It's a gamble but he should win? The economist is known for ass protecting statements because they don't want people to criticize them if time proves them wrong.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by purpleoscar

The economist is known for ass protecting statements because they don't want people to criticize them if time proves them wrong.

Or maybe they realize there aren't any absolutes...

[purpleoscar]

Originally Posted by BonoVoxSupastar

I thought conservatives weren't suppose to have faith in them to begin with...They're elitest.

I look at economists as intellectuals because they try to formulate what an economy should look like, but they tend to be better at telling us what happened in the past. Their predictions aren't particularly accurate. I suppose that if they were accurate they would always do well on the stock market.

Or as one joke I heard that "economists predicted 9 recessions out of the last 5".

[purpleoscar]

Originally Posted by BonoVoxSupastar

Or maybe they realize there aren't any absolutes...

If Obama goes far left they will criticize. If he goes right to the center they probably won't. I wish they would just talk about his economic plan (they being economists) and say which one is better. That would be sticking their neck out and they don't want to do that.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by purpleoscar

I look at economists as intellectuals because they try to formulate what an economy should look like, but they tend to be better at telling us what happened in the past. Their predictions aren't particularly accurate. I suppose that if they were accurate they would always do well on the stock market.

Or as one joke I heard that "economists predicted 9 recessions out of the last 5".

Yes, it that sense most are like weathermen...

[dazzledbylight]

Originally Posted by U2democrat

Last night I saw Obama, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb all on stage together.


Keep an eye on us. Assuming all goes well polls close here at 7pm ET, and if we go blue it's over.

cool, u2D!

was planning to listen for Virginia electoral vote's outcome
:fingerscrossed:

[cydewaze]

Originally Posted by purpleoscar

If Obama goes far left they will criticize. If he goes right to the center they probably won't.

If Obama governs from the far left, the republicans will criticize him for being too far left. If he governs from the center, the republicans will criticize him for being too far left. So he might as well just go for it and govern from the far left. He'll get labeled the same either way, so he might as well just go for broke.

If we learned anything from the Clinton presidency it's that you don't get any breaks for being a centrist.

[purpleoscar]

Originally Posted by cydewaze

If Obama governs from the far left, the republicans will criticize him for being too far left. If he governs from the center, the republicans will criticize him for being too far left. So he might as well just go for it and govern from the far left. He'll get labeled the same either way, so he might as well just go for broke.

If we learned anything from the Clinton presidency it's that you don't get any breaks for being a centrist.

Actually I agree with all this. McCain is not getting any leeway for crossing the aisle.

[A_Wanderer]

The base disdain for art and science from the demagogic conservatives betrays so much of what is wrong in any culture. It holds true for the United States and Australia as it does Iran and North Korea.

[U2democrat]

Bleh. I hope mccain's fringe supporters don't kill me tomorrow. I don't particularly want to see the man but i have to make sure my "troops" (the young democrats) behave themselves. We don't want any arrests.

[BostonAnne]

Originally Posted by purpleoscar

Actually I agree with all this. McCain is not getting any leeway for crossing the aisle.

Actually, I have given him leeway for this. I've noticed that McCain used to be in the center. I used to feel that people that tend to vote democratic could not loose either way. However, his current campaign tactics and his choice of Palin for VP changed my feelings of being OK if he were elected. It seems that he is now not his own person.

[BostonAnne]

On the stump this week, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has pushed back against Sen. John McCain’s description of his tax policies.

“The reason that we want to do this, change our tax code, is not because I have anything against the rich,” Obama said in Sarasota, Florida, yesterday. “I love rich people! I want all of you to be rich. Go for it. That’s the America dream, that’s the American way, that’s terrific.

“The point is, though, that — and it’s not just charity, it’s not just that I want to help the middle class and working people who are trying to get in the middle class — it’s that when we actually make sure that everybody’s got a shot – when young people can all go to college, when everybody’s got decent health care, when everybody’s got a little more money at the end of the month – then guess what? Everybody starts spending that money, they decide maybe I can afford a new car, maybe I can afford a computer for my child. They can buy the products and services that businesses are selling and everybody is better off. All boats rise. That’s what happened in the 1990s, that’s what we need to restore. And that’s what I’m gonna do as president of the United States of America.

“John McCain and Sarah Palin they call this socialistic,” Obama continued. “You know I don’t know when, when they decided they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness.”

Obama: McCain/Palin making “virtue out of selfishness” | You Decide 2008

Sorry if this has been posted... but I was so impressed with his response. I cannot for the life of me understand how the tax polices of the democratic party can be called socialist. I also can't understand how the conservative Christians can ignore how many times Jesus mentioned taking care of the poor. I saw the article this week about Exxon-Mobil's record profit

Exxon Mobil posts record 4Q profit of $10.7 billion - Earnings
Yet Again, Exxon Breaks Its Record Quarterly Profit - washingtonpost.com

and I seriously scratch my head how this is acceptable to 40-50% of America. How is it possibly acceptable that everyone has to pay such premiums at the pump that has been decided not on true demand/cost - but anticipated demand/cost. And if Exxon-Mobil sends jobs oversees, they receive a tax break because they can avoid social security. Why should it be so easy for them to avoid helping American workers? Why is it a bad idea to close those loop holes?

I believe this is another connection to how our current economic policies are bad for everyone that should be able to have a shot..

The Story of Stuff with Annie Leonard

I am truly confused by the Republican tax code.

[diamond]

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among Independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

[JOFO]

Nice try.

[VintagePunk]

Originally Posted by diamond

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among Independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Trick or Treat

Trick or Treat

Do you spook easily?

Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.

[diamond]

Under FBI Investigation?

[corianderstem]

I don't know who that is.

[U2Fanatic4ever]

^it's Chris Dodd

[diamond]

That's because he's a Democrat, former Pres. Candidate this year and waist deep in the Fannie Mae crisis.

CNN, MSN, ABC, CBS, ABC haven't mentioned him for some reason.

You do the math.



<>

[A_Wanderer]

Republicans always seem to trail in pre-election polling, it will probably be closer (by votes) than people think. Personally I would like to see Obama win by the electoral college but loose the popular vote and watch each side collectively forget their earlier positions.