2008 U.S. Presidential Campaign Discussion Thread-Part 10.

[U2isthebest]

Will McCain reveal he's actually 356 years old?
Will Obama finally admit he's a secret Muslim?
Will U2 release the new album before the end of the new president's first term?

Continue on....

[mobvok]

From the other thread!

At what specific point in history did electoral victory margins matter enough?

I mentioned that the current political alignment starting roughly at the Reagan Revolution seems like a justifiable way to compare results. When talking historic blowouts, the results of Democratic-Republican vs. Whig might be useful but in the current political split it seems much more relevant to judge to current Republican alliance vs. Democratic alliance....after the South adjusted to the Republicans after the 1960s/1970s.

[deep]

posted by Strongbow


In terms of the popular vote in the United States, here are the margins of victory in each election from 1824, the earliest election with complete popular vote data available, all the way up to 2004. The list is ranked based on the largest margins of victory down to the smallest in the popular vote.

1. 1920 Harding 60.32% Cox 34.15% +26.19%
2. 1924 Coolidge 54.04% Davis 28.82% +25.22%
3. 1936 Roosevelt 60.80% Landon 36.54% +24.26%
4. 1972 Nixon 60.67% McGovern 37.52% +23.15%
5. 1964 Johnson 61.05% Goldwater 38.47% +22.58%
6. 1904 Roosevelt 56.42% Parker 37.59% +18.83%
7. 1984 Reagan 58.77% Mondale 40.56% +18.21%
8. 1832 Jackson 54.74% Clay 36.93% +17.81%
9. 1932 Roosevelt 57.41% Hoover 39.65% +17.76%
10. 1928 Hoover 58.21% Smith 40.80% +17.41%
11. 1956 Eisenhower 57.37% Stevenson 41.97% +15.4%
12. 1912 Wilson 41.84% Roosevelt 27.40% +14.44%
13. 1836 Van Buren 50.79% Harrison 36.59% +14.2%
14. 1828 Jackson 55.93% Adams 43.68% +12.25%
15. 1856 Buchanan 45.29% Fremont 33.09% +12.2%
16. 1872 Grant 55.58% Greeley 43.78% +11.8%
17. 1952 Eisenhower 55.18% Stevenson 44.33% +10.85%
18. 1824 Adams 30.92% Jackson 41.36% +10.44%
19. 1860 Lincoln 39.65% Douglas 29.52% +10.13%
20. 1864 Lincoln 55.03% McClellan 44.95% +10.08%
21. 1940 Roosevelt 54.74% Willkie 44.78% +9.96%
22. 1980 Reagan 50.75% Carter 41.01% +9.74%
23. 1908 Taft 51.57% Bryan 43.04% +8.53%
24. 1996 Clinton 49.23% Dole 40.72% +8.51%
25. 1988 Bush 53.37% Dukakis 45.65% +7.72%
26. 1944 Roosevelt 53.39% Dewey 45.89% +7.5%
27. 1852 Pierce 50.83% Scott 43.88% +6.95%
28. 1900 McKinley 51.64% Bryan 45.52% +6.12%
29. 1840 Harrison 52.87% Van Buren 46.82% +6.05%
30. 1992 Clinton 43.01% Bush 37.45% +5.56%
31. 1868 Grant 52.66% Seymour 47.34% +5.32%
32. 1848 Taylor 47.28% Cass 42.49% +4.79%
33. 1948 Truman 49.55% Dewey 45.07% +4.48%
34. 1896 McKinley 51.02% Bryan 46.71% +4.31%
35. 1916 Wilson 49.24% Hughes 46.12 +3.12%
36. 1892 Cleveland 46.02% Harrison 43.01% +3.01%
37. 1876 Hayes 47.92% Tilden 50.92% +3%
38. 2004 Bush 50.73% Kerry 48.27% +2.46%
39. 1976 Carter 50.08% Ford 48.02% +2.06%
40. 1844 Polk 49.54% Clay 48.09% +1.45%
41. 1888 Harrison 47.80% Cleveland 48.63% +.83%
42. 1968 Nixon 43.42% Humphrey 42.72% +.7%
43. 1884 Cleveland 48.85% Blaine 48.28% +.57%
44. 2000 Bush 47.87% Gore 48.38% +.51%
45. 1960 Kennedy 49.72% Nixon 49.55% +.17%
46. 1880 Garfield 48.31% Hancock 48.22% +.09%

that list has an error

I will correct it


1. 1920 Harding 60.32% Cox 34.15% +26.19%
2. 1924 Coolidge 54.04% Davis 28.82% +25.22%
3. 1936 Roosevelt 60.80% Landon 36.54% +24.26%
4. 1972 Nixon 60.67% McGovern 37.52% +23.15%
5. 1964 Johnson 61.05% Goldwater 38.47% +22.58%
6. 1904 Roosevelt 56.42% Parker 37.59% +18.83%
7. 1984 Reagan 58.77% Mondale 40.56% +18.21%
8. 1832 Jackson 54.74% Clay 36.93% +17.81%
9. 1932 Roosevelt 57.41% Hoover 39.65% +17.76%
10. 1928 Hoover 58.21% Smith 40.80% +17.41%
11. 1956 Eisenhower 57.37% Stevenson 41.97% +15.4%
12. 1912 Wilson 41.84% Roosevelt 27.40% +14.44%
13. 1836 Van Buren 50.79% Harrison 36.59% +14.2%
14. 1828 Jackson 55.93% Adams 43.68% +12.25%
15. 1856 Buchanan 45.29% Fremont 33.09% +12.2%
16. 1872 Grant 55.58% Greeley 43.78% +11.8%
17. 1952 Eisenhower 55.18% Stevenson 44.33% +10.85%
18. 1824 Adams 30.92% Jackson 41.36% +10.44%
19. 1860 Lincoln 39.65% Douglas 29.52% +10.13%
20. 1864 Lincoln 55.03% McClellan 44.95% +10.08%
21. 1940 Roosevelt 54.74% Willkie 44.78% +9.96%
22. 1980 Reagan 50.75% Carter 41.01% +9.74%
23. 1908 Taft 51.57% Bryan 43.04% +8.53%
24. 1996 Clinton 49.23% Dole 40.72% +8.51%
25. 1988 Bush 53.37% Dukakis 45.65% +7.72%
26. 1944 Roosevelt 53.39% Dewey 45.89% +7.5%
27. 1852 Pierce 50.83% Scott 43.88% +6.95%
28. 1900 McKinley 51.64% Bryan 45.52% +6.12%
29. 1840 Harrison 52.87% Van Buren 46.82% +6.05%
30. 1992 Clinton 43.01% Bush 37.45% +5.56%
31. 1868 Grant 52.66% Seymour 47.34% +5.32%
32. 1848 Taylor 47.28% Cass 42.49% +4.79%
33. 1948 Truman 49.55% Dewey 45.07% +4.48%
34. 1896 McKinley 51.02% Bryan 46.71% +4.31%
35. 1916 Wilson 49.24% Hughes 46.12 +3.12%
36. 1892 Cleveland 46.02% Harrison 43.01% +3.01%
37. 1876 Hayes 47.92% Tilden 50.92% +3%
38. 2004 Bush 50.73% Kerry 48.27% +2.46%
39. 1976 Carter 50.08% Ford 48.02% +2.06%
40. 1844 Polk 49.54% Clay 48.09% +1.45%
41. 1888 Harrison 47.80% Cleveland 48.63% +.83%
42. 1968 Nixon 43.42% Humphrey 42.72% +.7%
43. 1884 Cleveland 48.85% Blaine 48.28% +.57%
44. 1960 Kennedy 49.72% Nixon 49.55% +.17%
45. 1880 Garfield 48.31% Hancock 48.22% +.09%
46. 2000 Bush 47.87% Gore 48.38% -.51%

[Strongbow]

Originally Posted by deep

that list has an error

I will correct it


1. 1920 Harding 60.32% Cox 34.15% +26.19%
2. 1924 Coolidge 54.04% Davis 28.82% +25.22%
3. 1936 Roosevelt 60.80% Landon 36.54% +24.26%
4. 1972 Nixon 60.67% McGovern 37.52% +23.15%
5. 1964 Johnson 61.05% Goldwater 38.47% +22.58%
6. 1904 Roosevelt 56.42% Parker 37.59% +18.83%
7. 1984 Reagan 58.77% Mondale 40.56% +18.21%
8. 1832 Jackson 54.74% Clay 36.93% +17.81%
9. 1932 Roosevelt 57.41% Hoover 39.65% +17.76%
10. 1928 Hoover 58.21% Smith 40.80% +17.41%
11. 1956 Eisenhower 57.37% Stevenson 41.97% +15.4%
12. 1912 Wilson 41.84% Roosevelt 27.40% +14.44%
13. 1836 Van Buren 50.79% Harrison 36.59% +14.2%
14. 1828 Jackson 55.93% Adams 43.68% +12.25%
15. 1856 Buchanan 45.29% Fremont 33.09% +12.2%
16. 1872 Grant 55.58% Greeley 43.78% +11.8%
17. 1952 Eisenhower 55.18% Stevenson 44.33% +10.85%
18. 1824 Adams 30.92% Jackson 41.36% +10.44%
19. 1860 Lincoln 39.65% Douglas 29.52% +10.13%
20. 1864 Lincoln 55.03% McClellan 44.95% +10.08%
21. 1940 Roosevelt 54.74% Willkie 44.78% +9.96%
22. 1980 Reagan 50.75% Carter 41.01% +9.74%
23. 1908 Taft 51.57% Bryan 43.04% +8.53%
24. 1996 Clinton 49.23% Dole 40.72% +8.51%
25. 1988 Bush 53.37% Dukakis 45.65% +7.72%
26. 1944 Roosevelt 53.39% Dewey 45.89% +7.5%
27. 1852 Pierce 50.83% Scott 43.88% +6.95%
28. 1900 McKinley 51.64% Bryan 45.52% +6.12%
29. 1840 Harrison 52.87% Van Buren 46.82% +6.05%
30. 1992 Clinton 43.01% Bush 37.45% +5.56%
31. 1868 Grant 52.66% Seymour 47.34% +5.32%
32. 1848 Taylor 47.28% Cass 42.49% +4.79%
33. 1948 Truman 49.55% Dewey 45.07% +4.48%
34. 1896 McKinley 51.02% Bryan 46.71% +4.31%
35. 1916 Wilson 49.24% Hughes 46.12 +3.12%
36. 1892 Cleveland 46.02% Harrison 43.01% +3.01%
37. 1876 Hayes 47.92% Tilden 50.92% +3%
38. 2004 Bush 50.73% Kerry 48.27% +2.46%
39. 1976 Carter 50.08% Ford 48.02% +2.06%
40. 1844 Polk 49.54% Clay 48.09% +1.45%
41. 1888 Harrison 47.80% Cleveland 48.63% +.83%
42. 1968 Nixon 43.42% Humphrey 42.72% +.7%
43. 1884 Cleveland 48.85% Blaine 48.28% +.57%
44. 1960 Kennedy 49.72% Nixon 49.55% +.17%
45. 1880 Garfield 48.31% Hancock 48.22% +.09%
46. 2000 Bush 47.87% Gore 48.38% -.51%

Its not an error. The popular vote margin of victory for Gore in 2000 was +.51%.

[Strongbow]

Some of this would be apples and oranges though, with results from the 1800s in the mix. I think a decent point to evaluate would be since 1980. All elections since then have had roughly the same party political alignment and have been less then a 10% margin. I would personally use ~7% of the vote (admittedly, very arbitrary) as the cutoff between a successful campaign and a blowout win.

Actually, not all elections have had a popular vote victory that was less than a 10% margin since 1980.

Remember this election:

7. 1984 Reagan 58.77% Mondale 40.56% +18.21%

Also, the 1984 election was the classic definition of a landslide in terms of the popular vote. I would say anything from 15% of the popular vote and up is the border line between simply a significant or big win and a blowout or landslide.

Saying that any margin of victory that is 7% or more is a blowout would mean that most US elections are blowouts. Most historians don't view US elections that way.


This is just a list of the margins of victories in US elections with the popular vote data that is available. There is no need to have any sort of a cut off date since the simple margin of victory is the only thing that is being looked at here. There is nothing that suggest certain margins of victory were more common at different points in time. Different levels of victory are well distributed throughout all the time periods.

[Strongbow]

The average margin of victory in the popular vote over the entire course of US Presidential election history has been 9.71%.

[LMP]

Harding really railed against Cox to win. Oh man, who knew two names could bring such comedy?

[corianderstem]

Gosh, the thread is off to a rousing start. Lists of numbers!

[Irvine511]

i guess my concern now is, after Obama so clearly and cleanly wiped the floor with Grandpa Walnuts, what is the McCain campaign going to do next? what will be this week's self-aggrandizing self-immolation? who will they kill? who will they threaten? what virgins will be tossed into the volcano?

[Earnie Shavers]

The closer it gets, the more worried I’d be if I were an Obama supporter.

[diamond]

Grandpa Walnuts

[diamond]

This just in from Zogby:


Released: October 08, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll:
Obama 47%, McCain-aka GrandpaWalnuts 45%



I don't trust Zogby.

<>

[mobvok]

I plugged all these values into a TI-83 graphing calculator and did an r squared regression (advanced!)

Overall, there's almost literally no correlation of reduced popular vote victory margin as time passes- with all data the r squared is .001. If I have this right, 0 means no correlation, 1 means a perfect correlation, -1 means a perfect inverse correlation.

I did it for all data from 1928 (don't ask) onwards and the r squared is still only .2. Huh. Guess my assumption was wrong.

So far as "landslide" goes in the electoral college (538.com defines it as 375+) Obama has a 33% chance of pulling it off as of today. Not too shabby....

[MrsSpringsteen]

Cindy McCain makes appearance at Children's Hospital | www.tennessean.com | The Tennessean

McCain, who stopped to visit a half-dozen children at the Monroe Carell Jr. Children’s Hospital at Vanderbilt today, said the presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama has "waged the dirtiest campaign in American history,” and her husband Sen. John McCain will use tonight’s debate to correct the distortions.

[JOFO]

What's that smell?

Oh yeah, it's desperation......

[toscano]

Originally Posted by JOFO

What's that smell?

Oh yeah, it's desperation......

There's a month to go.........it's an eternity in politics.

Obama has to be very careful, and not let up.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by toscano

There's a month to go.........it's an eternity in politics.

Obama has to be very careful, and not let up.

yes, indeed.

[U2democrat]

I'm so glad to see Biden back on the campaign trail...the man's on fiyah.

27 days out I'm feeling cautiously optimistic...

[U2isthebest]

Biden's speech at the Tampa rally was awesome. I that man.

[U2democrat]

Originally Posted by U2isthebest

Biden's speech at the Tampa rally was awesome. I that man.

He really had the passion going...and man did he call out McCain-Palin on their BS...or Malarky as he puts it. I loved his line about McCain seeing the presidency slipping from his grasp. He's fantastic. (I highly recommend his book Promises to Keep for anyone who has an interest in politics. It's funny and fascinating.)


I hope I get to see him again before Nov 4.