2008 U.S. Presidential Campaign Discussion Thread-Part 10.

[hiphop]

Originally Posted by Bluer White

C'mon now.

It was cocky old fighter pilot talk. Clearly not racism.

First, I don´t what pilots have to do with whips. Do they normally whip their planes?

Second, are you Afro-American? If not, please will you test your assumptions by asking the next ten Afro-Americans you meet on the street whether they think that comment is racist or not.

[toscano]

Originally Posted by hiphop

First, I don´t what pilots have to do with whips. Do they normally whip their planes?

Second, are you Afro-American? If not, please will you test your assumptions by asking the next ten Afro-Americans you meet on the street whether they think that comment is racist or not.

I asked my African American colleague in the office next to mine : Not racism.

[anitram]

I think it was just an unfortunate word choice.

[JOFO]

I posted that 3 pages ago.

I'm white, and maybe it's not racist, but it certainly is a bad choice for words, because obviously, some will draw the connection and find it offensive.

I found it to be in poor judgement, something McCain has shown time and time again in this campaign.

I don't blame any afro americans for being offended by the comment.

[diamond]

Originally Posted by hiphop

First, I don´t what pilots have to do with whips. Do they normally whip their planes?

.

Well you never know what "maverick" pilots will do to their planes when in a heated momment.



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[Irvine511]

devastating for McCain. in the small print, especially.

Obama Up by 10 Points as McCain Favorability Ratings Fall

By Anne E. Kornblut and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, October 13, 2008; A01

With just over three weeks until Election Day, the two presidential nominees appear to be on opposite trajectories, with Sen. Barack Obama gaining momentum and Sen. John McCain stalled or losing ground on a range of issues and personal traits, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Overall, Obama is leading 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and for the first time in the general-election campaign, voters gave the Democrat a clear edge on tax policy and providing strong leadership.

McCain has made little headway in his attempts to convince voters that Obama is too "risky" or too "liberal." Rather, recent strategic shifts may have hurt the Republican nominee, who now has higher negative ratings than his rival and is seen as mostly attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues that voters care about. Even McCain's supporters are now less enthusiastic about his candidacy, returning to levels not seen since before the Republican National Convention.

Conversely, Obama's pitch to the middle class on taxes is beginning to sink in; nearly as many said they think their taxes would go up under a McCain administration as under an Obama presidency, and more see their burdens easing with the Democrat in the White House.

The poll was conducted after Tuesday night's debate, which most voters said did not sway their opinions much. Still, voters' impressions of Obama are up, and views of McCain have slipped.

Nearly two-thirds of voters, 64 percent, now view Obama favorably, up six percentage points from early September. About a third of voters have a better opinion of the senator from Illinois because of his debate performances, while 8 percent have a lower opinion of him. By contrast, more than a quarter said they think worse of McCain as a result of the debates, more than double the proportion saying their opinion had improved. McCain's overall rating has also dipped seven points, to 52 percent, over the past month.

With the final debate set for Wednesday at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., McCain faces a narrowing window in which to reverse course.

Among the reasons McCain's path to victory seems steeper is that the percentage of "movable" voters continues to shrink. Thirteen percent of all voters are now either undecided or may change their mind before Election Day, down somewhat from recent polls.

Relatively high numbers of movable voters this year have led to poll swings. While McCain and Obama ran nearly even in Post-ABC polling for months, the financial crisis began to accelerate in mid-September -- and so did Obama, stretching to a nine-point lead. That lead narrowed slightly, to four points, after the first presidential debate, then widened again to its current 10 points.

Adding to McCain's burden as the standard-bearer for the party in power is an unprecedented grim view of the country overall: Ninety percent of Americans now see the country as headed in the wrong direction, the worst rating in polls dating to 1973.

There is also near-universal concern for the direction of the nation's economy over the next few years, growing fear that the stock market will perform poorly, and worry that household finances will suffer, factors that contribute to President Bush's approval rating hitting another low.

Twenty-three percent of all adults -- and 18 percent of political independents -- gave the president good marks, putting him within a point of Harry S. Truman's record low in a February 1952 Gallup poll. The low ratings continue to have a dampening effect on McCain: More than half of voters, 51 percent, said that McCain, if elected, would largely continue to lead the country in the direction Bush has, and those voters overwhelmingly prefer Obama.

While there are few signs of progress for McCain in the poll, recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable, although turning around a late double-digit deficit would be unprecedented in the modern era. At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points.

After weeks of international financial turmoil and a steep Wall Street plunge, there continues to be remarkable consensus among voters that the economy is the campaign's top issue. More than half of all voters, 53 percent, volunteered in an open-ended question that the economy and jobs constituted the most important issue in their choice for president.

Obama is winning "economy voters" by 62 percent to 33 percent, nearly a 2-to-1 ratio.

The next most important issue, health care, was offered by 7 percent of voters. A combined 11 percent of respondents chose terrorism or Iraq -- national security issues on which McCain is relatively stronger -- as their driving issues.

With the airwaves in battleground states reaching saturation level and coverage of the campaign intensifying, 59 percent of voters said that McCain is mainly on the attack, a marked increase over the 48 percent who said the same in August. And 35 percent of respondents said McCain is addressing the issues, in stark contrast with the 68 percent who said Obama is doing so.

That follows a report issued last week by the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project that found that nearly all of McCain's television spots in early October were negative ads, compared with about a third of Obama's.

On taxes, an issue that often benefits Republicans and that McCain has worked aggressively to highlight, Obama holds a significant lead for the first time as voters gave the Democrat an 11-point edge on whom they trust to handle tax policy.

Nearly as many said they think McCain would raise their federal taxes as said so of Obama, an apparent repudiation of Republican efforts to portray Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal and one that follows an intense advertising barrage by Obama asserting that McCain would tax health-care benefits.

Nor has there been evident progress for the GOP campaign to label Obama as an extreme liberal: Fifty-five percent of voters see the Democrat as "about right" ideologically, and although 37 percent see him as "too liberal," that is about the same as it was in June. By contrast, the percentage seeing McCain as "too conservative" is up to 42 percent, higher than it was four months ago.

Obama continues to dominate on the question of who better understands the economic problems facing the country. Both candidates have sought to connect with voters on the issue, and 58 percent said Obama is more in tune with their beliefs, more than double the number who said the same of McCain.

More broadly, there were few signs that McCain's attempts to reinvigorate his standing on economic matters have gained traction. McCain lags 17 points behind Obama on protecting the Social Security system, 28 points behind on helping the middle class and 29 points behind on health care.

McCain's efforts to portray Obama as a risky choice do not appear to have worked, either. In fact, voters are likelier to describe the Republican candidate that way, and although 29 percent said they consider Obama a "very safe" choice for president, 18 percent said the same for McCain. Voters were evenly divided on the question of whether McCain is safe or risky; 55 percent said Obama is safe, while 45 percent described the Democrat as risky.

McCain did make progress in two areas. He reclaimed ground on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, nearly matching Obama on that question after trailing by 11 points three weeks ago. And he cut into Obama's lead on the issue of standing up to lobbyists and special interest groups.

McCain has also retained his strong support among white Catholic voters, up 13 points over Obama in that group, the same margin that Bush held in 2004.

Yet on the broader question of leadership, voters gave Obama a 14-point advantage, saying, by 54 percent to 40 percent, that he is a "stronger leader" than McCain. The two were about tied on that question in late September, and McCain held a 13-point edge on strong leadership in early March before the Democratic nomination battle wound down.

Obama also continues to stay above the 50 percent mark on the key question of his experience: 54 percent in the new poll said he has enough experience to serve effectively as president, putting him about even with where Bill Clinton was on this question in early October 1992.

The poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 8 to 11, among a random national sample of 1,101 adults, including interviews with 945 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for the full sample, and 3.5 points for the sample of 766 likely voters.

[diamond]

Originally Posted by Earnie Shavers

Diamond, do you agree with the sentiment expressed in the written commentary? Believe any of it?

A small part of it.

I recoil when they present themselves as "patriots".

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[toscano]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

devastating for McCain. in the small print, especially.

You're forgetting McCain has him where he wants him and will kick his butt in the next debate................



Overconfidence and lack of focus/concentration is what could still do in Obama

[anitram]

My Mom said to me this weekend that she always thought McCain would lose, but that she KNEW he'd lose the day he chose Palin.

I think Mitt would have kept it closer in some of the battleground states.

[anitram]

Obama up 45-43 in North Dakota.

Brutal.

Obama leads in ND |  INFORUM | Fargo, North Dakota - Moorhead, Minnesota

[Utoo]

Originally Posted by toscano

You're forgetting McCain has him where he wants him and will kick his butt in the next debate................

I know...I can't imagine what McCain can do in the debate that's going to whip Obama's butt. What can he bring out in this debate that he hasn't already? Are his debating skills going to improve? His platform has pretty much stayed the same since the first debate, so I can't see much of a change in his answers or statements. Does he have some tidbit zinger that he's going to pull out? If so, why wait until the debate? And how can he use it in a way that doesn't look like pure desperation?

I see his speech to his campaign office more as a pep talk from a coach who thinks that his underdog team can still win, but who doesn't really have any new plays to add to the playbook.

[namkcuR]

Obama is even doing some damage in the plains/mountain states - Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas, etc are untouched but he's got Colorado, Missouri is in play, and now even North Dakota.

He's even looking better and better in Virginia, which hasn't gone Democrat since before the 60s, and he's ahead by a little in North Carolia, which hasn't gone Democrat since Carter won it in 76.

Oddly enough, he's still having a hard time erasing McCain's slim lead in Indiana. Why? Even when Clinton dominated the electoral collage two times, Indiana was red sandwiched between blue Illinois and blue Ohio and blue Michigan. What is it about Indiana? It hasn't gone Democrat in a long time but it's not like it's the deep south. If Democrats can win Ohio and Illinois and Michigan, why not Indiana?

[ntalwar]

That North Dakota Obama lead is a shocker. NC is also leaning Obama.

[anitram]

If ND is really in play then I think we might see a shift in Montana next door as well.

New SUSA poll now has Obama up by 8 in Missouri.

[namkcuR]

Originally Posted by Utoo

I know...I can't imagine what McCain can do in the debate that's going to whip Obama's butt. What can he bring out in this debate that he hasn't already? Are his debating skills going to improve? His platform has pretty much stayed the same since the first debate, so I can't see much of a change in his answers or statements. Does he have some tidbit zinger that he's going to pull out? If so, why wait until the debate? And how can he use it in a way that doesn't look like pure desperation?

I see his speech to his campaign office more as a pep talk from a coach who thinks that his underdog team can still win, but who doesn't really have any new plays to add to the playbook.

Remember, McCain supporters still think Palin kicked Biden's butt in the VP debate

[Vincent Vega]

Originally Posted by anitram

If ND is really in play then I think we might see a shift in Montana next door as well.

That'd be awesome. So far, Missoula is a liberal island in a firm Republican state.
Though even if that were to change and Montana would become a battleground state, it's such an unimportant state electoral college-wise that it wouldn't bring any interesting campaigning this way.

[financeguy]

Originally Posted by Vincent Vega

That'd be awesome. So far, Missoula is a liberal island in a firm Republican state.
Though even if that were to change and Montana would become a battleground state, it's such an unimportant state electoral college-wise that it wouldn't bring any interesting campaigning this way.

Off topic, but is it true there are no speed limits on the highways in Montana?

[Irvine511]

getting blown off by Charlie Crist? damn.

Florida Republicans cast blame as McCain trails in polls
John McCain's plunging poll numbers in Florida have top Republicans second-guessing and starting to distance themselves from the campaign.

BY MARY ELLEN KLAS AND MARC CAPUTO

For the first time in more than a decade, Florida Republicans are considering the almost unthinkable: Their presidential nominee could lose the state.

The economy, an unpopular president, a strong opponent, and the inability of John McCain to reverse poll numbers despite repeatedly revising his strategy has top state Republicans looking for someone to blame.

''There are a lot of folks who have never been in a foxhole before and are clearly nervous,'' said Brian Ballard, a major McCain fundraiser. ``There is some finger-pointing going on a little bit too soon.''

Even Gov. Charlie Crist, who helped deliver Florida for McCain during the primary, said he will be spending more time minding the state's weak economy than campaigning for the Arizona senator in the final weeks before Election Day.

''When I have time to help, I'll try to do that,'' Crist said last week, after he flew around the state with McCain running mate Sarah Palin. Saturday, he skipped a McCain football rally and instead went to Disney World.

Once considered a potential running mate, Crist had pledged to do all he could for McCain and spent several days this summer campaigning for the Republican nominee in and outside Florida. He faults the tough economic times for McCain's difficult time in Florida, where he trails rival Barack Obama by about 5 percentage points in the polls.

No Republican has won the White House in modern times without carrying Florida. The last to lose the state was McCain's former colleague, Sen. Bob Dole, in 1996. Some Republicans say the state party hasn't done enough, while others blame McCain's national campaign.

Roger Stone, a longtime McCain supporter, said the state party and the national campaign bear almost equal blame.

''This effort lacks coordination and a cooperative spirit and it's showing,'' Stone said. ``But it's more than mechanics. The campaign has no consistent message.''

Over the summer, the Obama camp spent at least $10 million on Florida television ads -- 4,000 of the spots attacking McCain -- while McCain spent nothing.

The failure by the party and McCain's campaign to respond to an Obama radio ad in Florida that bashed McCain over embryonic stem-cell research was ''a perfect example of them not being on the ball in Florida,'' Stone said, echoing numerous Florida Republicans. But national campaign officials said McCain is within striking distance of Obama in the polls, has ample time to turn things around, and had a winning strategy until Wall Street's crash.

''It's a little early for Monday-morning quarterbacking.'' said McCain's southeast regional director, Buzz Jacobs.

[anitram]

Well the poor man had to go and get engaged to a woman and for what? You'd be bitter too.

[Utoo]

Here's a more interesting take on the Gallup from the last week & a half:

The percentage of registered voters favoring Obama has been 50%, 51%, or 52% in each Gallup Poll Daily tracking report since Oct. 4. Support for McCain has been a steady 41% to 43% across the same time period. Thus, although the gap between the two candidates has varied from seven to 11 points in recent days, voter preferences have, in fact, been quite stable.

Gallup Daily: Obama Ahead, 51% to 41%