BonosSaint
Rock n' Roll Doggie
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2004
- Messages
- 3,566
I think FYM leans left. However, I am more inclined to think that FYM leans maverick more and that is the attraction of McCain.
STING2 said:
But there is a place where Bush is even more unpopular than Massachusetts, and its called FYM.
So the fact that McCain, a conservative, is crushing Clinton in a place like FYM I think is significant.
phanan said:
I think it's very relevant. Polling a small number of people and then using those results to say they are more liberal than an entire state doesn't work. What if next week, 10 people here changed their minds? The percentage would be significantly altered. But if 10 people in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts had a change of heart, there wouldn't be any difference.
Perhaps I'm not saying it well enough.
phanan said:
That's right, but trying to compare it to an entire state is, in my mind, not a very good comparison.
anitram explained it better than me
U2DMfan said:
I think Bush is so unpopular on this forum because you have a decidedly international taste on this forum.
and when the election cycle rolls around, I doubt the match-up is McCain vs Clinton, and even if it is, I doubt you'll be seeing these numbers in 2008 on FYM or anywhere else in a "blue state".
McCain will have to get off the centrist fence to win his consitituents. When he does this, he'll alienate dissaffected liberals and Dems, and those people will suddenly remember why they don't like Republicans, including McCain. It's the nature of the beast. He's got to play the game to win. It's the only reason the Republicans won in 2004, they play the game better because they know the game better, why?
Because they consistently define the game, they make the groundrules for debate, they orchestrate the discussions around their strengths. It's amazing Clinton won twice in a row, shows you how much people really liked him. So if it's his wife in 2008, do you think it's going to be hard to win over some people with a Clinton on the ticket, a female, who even if she carried the same states that Kerry did would need only 1 relatively smaller state to win the election?
Oh, if you think this FYM poll means diddly squat, I have to laugh.
BonosSaint said:But if McCain does what he has to do to win the Republican nomination--which might be move right--will he then lose the popularity he has among people who lean left?
STING2 said:
I find it interesting that McCain is doing so well in a poll in a forum that has a stronger anti-Bush, anti-right, anti-Republican bias than the strongest democratic held state in the Union based on the presidential polls done in here. I think its interesting and a possible indicator of the overall strength of McCain in 2008. I'm claiming its how the election will go or that its an accurate scientific prediction of election in 2008.
If anything, the American people as a whole are more attracted to interesting individuals than they are to a political party. That is why Reagan won every single state in the Union in 1984 with the exception of Minnosota. Reagan lost Minnosota by less than 4,000 votes.
After 2008, there may be much talk of the McCain Democrats, just as their was of the Reagan Democrats in the 1980s.
Clinton's victory in 1992 was do to Ross Perot. Had Perot stayed out of the race, Bush Sr. would have won a narrow victory based on the type of people who voted for Perot.
Clinton's victory with only 43% of the popular vote in 1992 two years later would bring about the first Republican controlled congress in 40 years! Clinton's move to the right have the 1994 congressional elections set him up for a strong win in 1996. Had Clinton stayed where he was politicaly prior to the election in 1994, and the Republicans had elected a stronger candidate, Clinton would have lossed in 1996.
In a McCain vs. Clinton election in 2008, McCain would clobber Clinton in the states that Kerry barely won in 2004 like Pennsylvania and several of the mid-western states and would indeed have an opportunity to have a victory the size that Reagan had in 1984.
STING2 said:The North Eastern United States especially the state of Massachusetts has had a far left bias for several decades now when it comes to US Presidential politics. FYM though, is further to the left of Massachusetts in this regard.
FizzingWhizzbees said:
No, Massachusetts is more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for President than the Republican candidate for President. (For that matter, doesn't MA currently have a Republican governor? Hardly indicative of a state that's "far-left".) Being likely to vote for a Democrat for President is not an indicator of "far-left" views, particularly not when the Democrat in question is as moderate as John Kerry.
FizzingWhizzbees said:
No, Massachusetts is more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for President than the Republican candidate for President. (For that matter, doesn't MA currently have a Republican governor? Hardly indicative of a state that's "far-left".)
jay canseco said:There was that Keating Five controversy.
Dreadsox said:
Governor Weld defeated John Kerry when he was running for Governor in 1996.
Dreadsox said:
In my opinion, Mr. Romney, if he does not run for President will be reelected. However, I expect Mr. Romney to run, and challenge McCain in the Northest. I expect Romney to win NH making it difficult for McCain who will hang around until the South votes and Ohio/MICHIGAN.
phanan said:
I don't know if you just typed it wrong, but Weld, while Governor, ran against Kerry for his senate seat in 1996 and LOST, not won.
Dreadsox said:
You can see that MASSACHUSETTS since 1972 has only voted for a Republican TWICE....for Regan in 1980 and for Reagan in 1984. Both times Regan ran against the Carter administration beating Carter (1980) and his vice-President Mondale (1984). The Carter Administration was probably the MOST unpopular administration in my lifetime, other than LBJ who was President when I was born.
phanan said:
Living in NH, I disagree. McCain was tremendously popular here when he ran for President in 2000, and quite decidedly trounced Bush. I wish the country had followed us. In any event, he is still very popular and well-liked in this state, and despite Romney being just to the south, he does not have the same appeal as McCain. McCain would easily beat Romney in the primary here.
phanan said:
Well, I wouldn't necessarily word it that Reagan beat the Carter administration both times, since it didn't exist in 1984. Mondale ran on his own with his own team.
phanan said:
Going back to McCain and Romney, I've already stated that I think McCain would still win NH, but I would even go as far to say that he'd give Romney a real run for his money in MA as well, although Romney would probably take his own state still.
However, despite McCain's crossover appeal, I still can't see him beating Clinton in a national election in MA.
Dreadsox said:
Typo...sorry
Dreadsox said:
I am still sitting here trying to remember who he beat for Gov. in 1994. Or did he run unopposed
phanan said:I still don't think it indicates anything in terms of the entire country, because the sampling, despite usually being left of center, is just too small to give an accurate portrayal of what the overall voting population would do three years from now.
Personally, I can't see McCain coming close to a landslide victory. However, he would easily have a more resounding win than either Bush, perhaps similar to Clinton in 1996.