Week 50 U.S. Chart News

[STING]

Just 76,000 more copies until 3,000,000 in soundscan sales USA!

 

[doctorwho]

Many of us look at Hits Daily Double to get an idea of the upcoming charts; however, Hits Daily Double often seems "off" compared to Billboard.

I want to compare Hits Daily Double with actual SoundScan data. Below are the Top 50 listing on Hits Daily Double (last week's rank/this week's rank/artist/album title/this weeks sales). I then listed the Top 55 (to include U2) albums from SoundScan (last week's rank/this week's rank/artist/album title/this weeks sales).


Hits Daily Double Data

LW/TW/Artist/Album/Sales

1/1/JA RULE/PAIN IS LOVE/227,418
3/2/ENYA/DAY WITHOUT RAIN/161,705
-/3/BUBBA SPARXXX/DARK DAYS BRIGHT NIGHTS/ 153,214
4/4/NICKELBACK/SILVER SIDE UP/118,440
2/5/JAY-Z/BLUEPRINT/110,175
6/6/VARIOUS/TOTALLY HITS 4/109,757
7/7/LINKIN PARK/HYBRID THEORY/103,383
8/8/USHER/8701/99,140
5/9/ALICIA KEYS/SONGS IN A MINOR/95,713
12/10/SYSTEM OF A DOWN/TOXICITY/75,693
9/11/P.O.D./SATELLITE/75,071
10/12/STAIND/BREAK THE CYCLE/69,772
-/13/CHARLOTTE CHURCH/ENCHANTMENT/67,179
15/14/VARIOUS/NOW VOL.7/63,456
14/15/MARY J. BLIGE/NO MORE DRAMA/62,813
17/16/NSYNC/CELEBRITY/58,245
16/17/JENNIFER/J. LO/56,362
22/18/O BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU?/SOUNDTRACK/51,003
13/19/ELTON JOHN ROCKET/SONGS FROM THE WEST COAST/49,385
18/20/DIANA KRALL/LOOK OF LOVE/48,531
11/21/GARBAGE/BEAUTIFULGARBAGE/47,303
25/22/NELLY FURTADO/WHOA NELLY/45,853
27/23/PUDDLE OF MUDD/COME CLEAN/45,828
19/24/FABOLOUS/GHETTO FABOLOUS/45,555
-/25/BONES/SOUNDTRACK/43,901
23/26 ALIEN ANT FARM/ANTHOLOGY/43,489
26/27/AALIYAH/AALIYAH/43,448
20/28/MAXWELL/NOW/42,102
24/29/TOBY KEITH/PULL MY CHAIN/41,196
21/30/MARTINA MCBRIDE/GREATEST HITS/39,709
28/31/GORILLAZ/GORILLAZ/39,091
31/32 MACY GRAY/THE ID/36,949
30/33/AFROMAN/GOOD TIMES/36,329
39/34/SUM 41/ALL KILLER NO FILLER/35,927
50/35/TRAINING DAY/SOUNDTRACK/34,406
36/36/DISTURBED/SICKNESS/32,912
29/37/BILLY JOEL/ESSENTIAL BILLY JOEL/32,298
40/38/DESTINY'S CHILD/SURVIVOR/31,259
-/39/O'JAYS/FOR THE LOVE/31,236
32/40/BOB DYLAN/LOVE & THEFT/29,845
33/41/BRIAN/SUPERHERO/29,663
38/42/MARIAH CAREY/GLITTER/29,447
41/43/TORI AMOS/STRANGE LITTLE GIRLS/27,790
48/44/GINUWINE/DIFFERENCES/26,573
-/45/U2/ALL THAT YOU CAN'T LEAVE BEHIND/26,491
-/46/LEE GREENWOOD/AMERICAN PATRIOT/25,200
-/47/MICHELLE BRANCH/SPIRIT ROOM/24,331
49/48/TRAIN/DROPS OF JUPITER/24,237
43/49/TRICK DADDY/THUGS ARE US/24,196
47/50/SLIPKNOT/IOWA/24,156

SoundScan Data

LW/TW/Artist/Album/Sales

1/1/JA RULE/PAIN IS LOVE/220,793
3/2/ENYA/DAY WITHOUT RAIN/162,257
-/3/BUBBA SPARXXX/DARK DAYS BRIGHT/132,174
2/4/JAY-Z/BLUEPRINT/128,180
5/5/NICKELBACK/SILVER SIDE UP/113,465
6/6/VARIOUS/TOTALLY HITS 2001/103,462
4/7/ALICIA KEYS/SONGS IN A MINOR/103,381
7/8/LINKIN PARK/HYBRID THEORY/103,011
8/9/USHER/8701/96,307
9/10/P.O.D./SATELLITE/81,550
12/11/SYSTEM OF A DOWN/TOXICITY/74,500
10/12/STAIND/BREAK THE CYCLE/69,915
11/13/VARIOUS/VOL. 7-NOW/68,933
14/14/MARY J.BLIGE/NO MORE DRAMA/68,181
-/15/CHARLOTTE CHURCH/ENCHANTMENT/66,469
17/16/N SYNC/CELEBRITY/61,232
16/17/JENNIFER LOPEZ/J. LO/57,251
18/18/FABOLOUS/GHETTO FABOLOUS/51,581
22/19/O BROTHER WHERE ART THOU/SOUNDTRACK/49,511
20/20/DIANA KRALL/LOOK OF LOVE/48,008
15/21/ELTON JOHN/SONGS FROM THE WEST/47,191
23/22/AALIYAH/AALIYAH/46,770
19/23/MAXWELL/NOW/46,606
27/24/NELLY FURTADO/WHOA NELLY!/43,795
25/25/TOBY KEITH/PULL MY CHAIN/41,872
21/26/MARTINA MCBRIDE/GREATEST HITS/41,767
26/27/ALIEN ANT FARM/ANTHOLOGY/41,744
30/28/PUDDLE OF MUDD/COME CLEAN/41,236
24/29/MACY GRAY/THE ID/39,631
13/30/GARBAGE/BEAUTIFULGARBAGE/39,623
28/31/GERALD LEVERT/GERALD'S WORLD/38,938
32/32/GORILLAZ/GORILLAZ/36,269
33/33/AFROMAN/GOOD TIMES/32,977
31/34/MARIAH CAREY/GLITTER/32,751
49/35/TRAINING DAY/SOUNDTRACK/32,370
38/36/DESTINY'S CHILD/SURVIVOR/31,895
34/37/BRIAN MCKNIGHT/SUPERHERO/31,419
29/38/BILLY JOEL/ESSENTIAL BILLY JOE/31,306
-/39/BONES/SOUNDTRACK/30,189
35/40/BOB DYLAN/LOVE & THEFT/29,870
36/41/STEVEN CHAPMAN/DECLARATION/29,382
44/42/SUM 41/ALL KILLER NO FILLER/28,999
37/43/ISLEY BROTHERS/ETERNAL/27,077
42/44/GINUWINE/LIFE/26,926
45/45/DISTURBED/SICKNESS/26,089
46/46/TRICK DADDY/THUGS ARE US/25,016
51/47/MICHAEL W SMITH/WORSHIP/24,737
40/48/JUVENILE/PROJECT ENGLISH/24,473
47/49/BABYFACE/FACE 2 FACE/24,238
-/50/TURN UP THE MUSIC/PROUD TO BE AMERICAN/23,983
41/51/TORI AMOS/STRANGE LITTLE GIRLS/23,975
56/52/VARIOUS/THE GOODLIFE/23,532
-/53/O'JAYS/FOR THE LOVE.../23,261
43/54/VA-PULSE/PULSE/22,164
57/55/U2/ALL THAT YOU CAN'T LEAVE BEHIND/21,955


As you can see, while, at times, Hits Daily Double did get the rank right, the sales numbers were still "wrong" (wrong as compared to SoundScan, which has been accepted in the industry). In some cases the ranks were VERY off as well (look at the "Bones" soundtrack in the two charts).

Therefore, I think we can only loosely use Hits Daily Double numbers. Seeing U2 in their Top 50 is a good sign, but as shown by this week's SoundScan data, it doesn't necessarily indicate a huge jump in sales.

[This message has been edited by doctorwho (edited 10-17-2001).]

 

[doctorwho]

Melissa sent me the SoundScan data for this week, so I can report some U.S. chart news early.

In Week 50, ATYCLB rises slightly from #57 to #55 in the U.S.

Position #55 in mid-October is a great position for this album. "Stuck..." continues to rise on the charts (as of last week) and with the tour now on-going, this should keep the album relatively stagnant on the charts for the next month or so. That may be just enough time for holiday sales to pick up, which may give the album another boost.

The first 50 weeks for ATYCLB on the U.S. Billboard charts are:

3-5-12-22-23-24-20-18-22-16
19-19-25-33-37-35-11-15-25-31
38-40-42-45-45-48-50-48-50-58
60-53-50-66-74-82-81-89-88-99
105-106-108-104-78-66-53-50-57-55

"POP" was out of the Top 100 after 19 weeks and "Zooropa" was out of the Top 100 after 31 weeks. ATYCLB fell out of the Top 100 after 40 weeks, however, it has now returned for an additional 6 weeks. It has spent 46 out of 50 total weeks in the U.S. Top 100.

Approximate weekly sales for the first 50 weeks of ATYCLB are (rounded to nearest thousand):

428,000 + 176,000 + 119,000 + 125,000 + 100,000 + 113,000 + 154,000 + 259,000 + 108,000 + 66,000 + 59,000 + 57,000+ 47,000 + 44,000 + 41,000 + 49,000 + 85,000 + 74,000 + 54,000 + 48,000 + 43,000 + 39,000 + 37,000 + 39,000 + 30,000 + 29,000 + 26,000 + 29,000 + 25,000 + 24,000 + 27,000 + 30,000 + 31,000 + 24,000 + 22,000 + 18,000 + 19,000 + 17,000 + 17,000 + 15,000 + 14,000 + 14,000 + 13,000 + 13,000 + 16,000 + 19,000 + 21,000 + 23,000 + 22,000 + 22,000

Estimated total U.S. sales after 50 weeks are: 2,924,000.

In Week 45, when ATYCLB charted at #78, sales would typically be around 18-19,000 copies. However, Billboard claimed only a 19% increase in sales for ATYCLB. The SoundScan data from the week before (kindly sent to me by Melissa) showed sales of a little over 13,000 copies. This meant that with a 19% increase, sales could be no more than 16,000 copies for the week, which seems low (remember, this occurred before the tragedy). Nonetheless, I will use this sales estimate in my calculations.

In Week 46, at #66, sales would typically be around 22,000 copies. I took off 15% from that number due to the tragedy and estimated sales at 19,000 copies. Since ATYCLB was also listed as a "Pacesetter," I felt this estimate was solid.

In Week 47, the album jumped up to #53. Popmartijn saw an article that reported sales for the #50 album that week at 22,000 copies. Therefore, I estimated sales for this week to be 21,000 copies.

In Week 48, the album was at #50, so I estimated sales at 23,000 copies. This may seem high, but Week 49 chart data (see below) suggests that 22,000 copies may be too low.

In Week 49, the album dropped to #57, but I felt that this may not necessarily be due to a huge drop in sales. My guess here proved to be true. Melissa sent me SoundScan data that showed sales to be at exactly 21,578 copies (which rounds to 22,000 copies).

In week 50, the album gains slightly in sales, with 21,955 copies sold (again, rounds to 22,000 copies).

This puts sales at 2.924 million copies in the U.S. This may be off by a few thousand, but I feel it is fairly accurate. Please note that while many weeks were estimates of sales based on chart positions, many other weeks Melissa sent me actual SoundScan data, so we have the exact number of copies sold.

If one estimates that stores have approximately 5x weekly sales in stock, that would put the shipment figures at over 3 million copies. Therefore, while it's not official, ATYCLB, for all intents and purposes, has gone 3x Platinum in the U.S.

The "official" certification should come within the next month.

It seems that Hits Daily Double is rather generous with their numbers. I'm not sure where they collect data, but they routinely seem a bit high - especially in the lower part of their chart. For example, they had ATYCLB at #45 with over 26,000 copies sold. Based on SoundScan and Billboard, this is not correct.

The #1 album in the U.S. this week is by Ja Rule ("Pain Is Love") with slightly over 220,000 copies sold. Enya does indeed see a substantial increase in sales as her album goes to #2 with 162,000 copies sold (an increase from 129,000 copies sold last week). N'Sync's "Celebrity" rises to #16 on the charts (from #17) but decreases in sales. "Celebrity" sells 61,000 copies this week, down from 63,000 copies last week.

A few more artists you can add to your list Womanfish are Jay-Z and Madonna. While Jay-Z's current album is holding strong at #4 this week with sales of 128,000 copies (down from 148,000 copies last week), the album he released with U2's album a year ago is nowhere to be found in the Top 200. Madonna's "Music" is also out of the Top 200, despite be released just six weeks before U2's album.

Whitney Houston's version of the "Star Spangled Banner" is selling incredibly well. It zoomed up on the Billboard Hot 100 charts last week thanks to sales of almost 60,000 copies (easily making it the #1 selling CD in the U.S.). This week, the single sells nearly 78,000 copies, which keeps it at #1. The #2 CD single on the sales chart, "AM to PM," sold a bit under 25,000 copies. Lately, CD singles do not sell that well in the U.S. or Canada, which may be the reason for U2 not releasing CD's in the U.S. For example, the #10 CD single on the sales chart, "Don't Mess with the Radio," sold approximately 3,500 copies. The #100 CD single, "Separated" by Avant, sold a mere 611 copies.

That's all the information I have for now. More data (on "Stuck..." in particular) when the full charts are up on Thursday.

------------------

A proud member of the "No BEALs Club."

[This message has been edited by doctorwho (edited 10-17-2001).]

 

[u2opia]

Still no sign of Stuck in the US top 50 - I am getting a little bit frustrated as to why it is taking so long to enter the charts. Must be 51 or 52 or something. Maybe it will be a slow grower, but gee it deserves to make the top 40.

Stuck is still number 13 on the Adult Singles Chart so unchanged from last week. However it does have the gold background indicating more airplay so this is consistent with Gavin.com which also has indictated more airplay (however rise not as pronounced as last week). Maybe this is indicating the single is getting close to its zenith.

Good news that the album rose from 57 to 55. Good analysis from Dr Who on the Chart differential b/w Hits and Billboard - this is the biggest gap in the charts between the two that I recall which at 10 spots is significant. Womanfish - you magnificent bastard you were pretty close again - keep trusting those sources and your instinct mate.

Still double platinum but I think when they next do the round of certifications later this month, the album should receive the 3x platinum. It has been a long road to go from 2x to 3x - but the fact it has got there indicates the album's and group's popularity in the US is still on the rise. Maybe that's why U2 are talking about releasing another album. Not only because they have material, but it is their time again to shine on the world stage - we certainly need their type of music more than ever at the moment.

As for Canada - you guys rock. The album I think Dr Who last reported was 23 or something which is probably the highest place in the world at the moment. For all countries apart from Ireland of course (their biggest - but it is their homeland) after the Netherlands - Canada just might be U2's biggest market in per capita terms , just head of my country Australia and Italy. Must be getting close to 5X platinum in Canada.

 

[womanfish]

Pretty disapointing being right this week

I really was hoping for the album to pop up in the top 50 again, but hey a small increase is ok. It doesn't look really good for U2 for the coming week either from what I am seeing. This definitely could be U2's last stand with the initial tour buzz dying down, Stuck peaking at radio, and the Christmas debut rush on the horizon. I think the tour will keep the album in the top 75 for a little while, but once the glut of new releases come, I just don't think they will be able to withstand it, unless they somehow release Wild Honey or IALW and it does really well, but that's a long shot.

It really bugs me that Stuck is still not in the top 50 and nsync's song "gone" is rising pretty quickly. that has to be one of the worst songs I have ever heard aside from Britney's new one. Ugh

anyway, good to see a slight rise, but it's the last one that I see for now. Hopefully Bono and Edge will perform something really cool on the concert for NY saturday, and we will see another little rise in a couple weeks on the chart

crossing my fingers.

 

[voxson]

Stuck In A Moment remains for a second week at #52 but this time loses its gold background. This might mean that this is the highest position this song will have or at best maybe even rise a couple of places and then drop. What is not optimist is that all of the songs from #50 to #60 (except stuck of course) receive a gold background as an indication of increased airplay so things look tough for stuck next week.

Anyway, it's still a success in comparision to Walk On or Elevation and especially considering the situation in the US charts nowadays.

Andy

 

[womanfish]

I can't say enough bad things about Creed. Horrible, awful, dispicable. I haven't heard their new song either, AND, now that I think about it they are missing off my list of new Christmas releases. I wonder when their new, pathetic, over-blown, messianic, holier-than-thou, over-played,
over-praised, piece of shit will hit the shelves?

 

[Zoomerang96]

i agree about creed. you know what else gets me? gone by nsync. that song sucks assshit. worst song ever. but ofcourse that automatically means that it will get on the radio...

------
in canada

ok, stuck rises to number 4 in canada, from number five. 1 is my girlfriend, and wife-to-be - alicia keys. 2 is nickeback, while number 3 is eeeeech... blu cantrell.

the album rises to number 20! wow, this is incredible, seriously.

------

what may i ask, is the new radiohead release? can you tell me more please, womanfish? also about pink floyd, are they coming out with a new album?!

------------------
-death bear

 

[Se7en]

I disagree about Creed...
but I'm with you ten fold when it comes to N'Sync sucking ass shit!

 

[anitram]

Yaaay Canadians!

We're a proud people with great taste.

 

[MacFly2]

Creed new single "My Sacrifice" debuts at #50 on the Hot 100??? What the shit is that?
I haven't heard the song yet, but damn to debut that high?? Must have received alot of airplay last week! To top it off there higher than U2!! When will the Creed popularity end? It was bad enuf we had to hear "With Legs Wide Open" on every radio station last fall!! Oye Vaye.....

 

[DoctorGonzo]

Yaaay Canadians!

We're a proud people with great taste.

Then how do you explain the continued success of The Barenaked Ladies?

 

[SkeeK]

Originally posted by DoctorGonzo:
Then how do you explain the continued success of The Barenaked Ladies?

Taste differentiation. I'm not a fan by any means, but I don't hate them or anything like that. They're the crazy fun guys.

 

[mike63]

------
in canada

ok, stuck rises to number 4 in canada, from number five. 1 is my girlfriend, and wife-to-be - alicia keys. 2 is nickeback, while number 3 is eeeeech... blu cantrell.

the album rises to number 20! wow, this is incredible, seriously.

------

what may i ask, is the new radiohead release? can you tell me more please, womanfish? also about pink floyd, are they coming out with a new album?!

[/B][/QUOTE]

And on the `World Stage' we should note that Elevation is still doing the business in certain territories e.g. at number 4 in Peru.
- which means this week it is at 30 in the World Chart.

Mike

 

[anitram]

Originally posted by DoctorGonzo:
Then how do you explain the continued success of The Barenaked Ladies?

Yeah, but we did manage to expel Celine Dion to Florida.