Earnie Shavers said:
Yes it was rare then, but while it was exceedingly difficult and rare then, I'd call it impossible now. The ceiling has dropped. The peak is lower.
You are correct about the industry, while suffering a decent decline, it's not faltering as such. That's not what I'm suggesting. It's why I was talking about a triangle. It's not just total figures that are changing. Where sales are occuring is shifting. The average #1 album requires a far lower number of sales then it did 10 years ago. The % drop in that regard in any given week is out of sync with the overall % drop in any given week for total album sales across the market. For anyone who doesn't understand, put it this way: In 1997 the average sales you needed to hit #1 on the charts may have been 10 copies sold, and the average number of albums sold across the whole market by everyone totalled 100 units. In 1997 you need 8 sales to hit # 1, a 20% decrease. However the average sales across the market sits at 90, only a 10% decrease. These stats and percentages are obviously not factual, they are there just as an illustration, however the trend is real. What it shows is that people are buying a wider range of stuff. There is less flocking to the pointy end of the charts.
With access to so much online instantly, satellite radio stations, blogs, with the way communities such as Interference work, you are not limited to the recommendations of a radio station playlist, nor just your circle of friends, but thousands of people telling you, sharing with you. Both expanding your knowledge within your existing tastes, and opening your mind to new ones. Making you aware of great new stuff, and giving you a history lesson. The musical tastes and playlists of the average person are expanding rapidly, and often outside of what is currently charting and being promoted.
This does of course not mean that there aren't huge sellers, mega sellers even. It just means that on the one hand, $X that make up the market are being spread more thinly now across a wider range of titles/artists, and that the perfect storm necessary to create a U2 or Police or Rolling Stones type sensation is far less likely to happen, with the channels of promotion and purchasing far less favourable to such an event. Where it is still available is within communities where being a part of the crowd is important: teenagers.
The real shift within the music industry in this internet/digital age is a shift towards diversity and away from "popularity rules." The share of the pie at the pointy end is getting smaller, while it's getting larger at the flat end. Hence why Tower goes broke while Amazon and iTunes go from strength to strength. Tower used to make most of their money off the very top end of the charts, now they can't compete with the vast range and availability people expect, along with the 'browsing' habits we now want and enjoy.
Arcade Fire are a small band on the grand scale of things, but they are 10,000 times as large in 2007 as they would have been in 1997 thanks to this trend. Meanwhile, it's holding a huge band with a universal sound and appeal like Coldplay back, compared to where they could/would have been a decade ago.
That's true. There are trends though, but I haven't really thought too hard about this one. There do seem to be more festivals these days, and tours in general seem to be in smaller venues (I'm talking from my Australian viewpoint here). It's not just that no bands are breaking out into the stadiums, it seems like less are breaking out into the arenas as well. If you look at those that consistently sell out arenas and stadiums, they all seem to be a generation or two ago. Bands that broke out 5 or more years ago for arenas, and 10 or more for stadiums. Again, this is just anecdotal, not based on anything I've read or seen.
If it's true, it probably has a lot to do with the diversity in tastes that I'm talking about, mixed with a bunch of other factors. If 10 years ago the 10 people in the room here at work with me now all were more likely to have one of the last 10 albums we bought in common, we are also more likely to be buying a ticket to a common concert. Today though we are far, far less likely to have a similar purchase in our recent history, despite all being from an almost identical demographic and all having very similar musical tastes. Therefore, not surprisingly (and this is actually true of the 10 people I am currently sharing this room with) we are more likely to all go to a common concert from a generation where we were also more likely to be making common album purchases. Of the 10 people in this room right now, we all regularly attend concerts. In the coming week alone a few of us will be attending a variety that includes the Beastie Boys, Snow Patrol and Damien Rice. The last concert we all had in common? U2 last November. Is what I'm trying to get across making sense?
Again, I simply think that due to the environment they are currently in, it is and will be for the foreseeable future, almost impossible for an artists to break out into being a huge stadium staple. Diversity strikes again.
They are not an 'event' act? They haven't earned a strong live reputation? Forget U2, how did Coldplays last tour go against, say, the Red Hot Chili Peppers? I don't think Coldplay are ever going to break into stadiums, even if those album sales creep up a little further.
Yes, I think Greendays resurgance was a flash not a stayer, unless the next one is something really special.
Coldplay will be the closest thing to a universal band that we'll get in this generation, but as I've said, due to trends in a bunch of different areas, they simply won't make it to U2 size and I sincerely doubt we will ever see anyone else do so.
The problem with this theory of fragmentation is that artist at every level in the business are being impacted by low sales. Consider the following sales statistics for a week on the Billboard 200 in 2002, and week on there in 2007:
March 2002
#1 album sold 419284
#10 album sold 71269
#20 album sold 54226
#40 album sold 30434
#50 album sold 25587
#100 album sold 13483
#150 album sold 8672
#200 album sold 6327
January 2007
#1 album sold 60,064
#10 album sold 35,423
#20 album sold 28,825
#40 album sold 17,419
#50 album sold 14,872
#100 album sold 7,621
#150 album sold 5,130
#200 album sold 3,743
This translates into a roughly a 40% to 50% drop in ALL album sales in under 5 years, at just about every level.
Here are the top 10 selling albums in the United States for 1996, 2000, and 2006:
2006:
1. High School Musical: 3.72 million
2. Rascal Flatts/Me and My Gang: 3.48 million
3. Carrie Underwood/Some Hearts: 3.02 million
4. Nickelback/All the Right Reasons: 2.69 million
5. Justin Timberlake/Futuresex/Lovesounds: 2.38 million
6. James Blunt/Back to Bedlam: 2.14 million
7. Beyonce/B'day: 2.01 million
8. Hannah Montana: 1.99 million
9. Dixie Chicks/Taking the Long Way: 1.86 million
10. Hinder/Extreme Behavior: 1.82 million
2000:
1. N Sync- No Strings Attached- 9.936.104
2. Eminem- The Marshall Mathers LP- 7.921.107
3. Britney Spears- Oops!...I Did it Again- 7.893.544
4. Creed- Human Clay- 6.587.834
5. Santana- Supernatural- 5.857.824
6. The Beatles- 1- 5.068.300
7. Nelly- Country Grammar- 5.067.529
8. Backstreet Boys- Black and Blue- 4.289.865
9. Dr Dre- 2001- 3.992.311
10. Destiny's Child- The Writing's on the Wall- 3.802.165
1996
1. Jagged Little Pill Alanis Morissette: 7,400,000
2. Falling Into You Celine Dion: 6,000,000
3. The Score The Fugees: 4,500,000
4. Tragic Kingdom No Doubt: 4,400,000
5. Daydream Mariah Carey: 3,000,000
6. All Eyez On Me 2Pac: 3,000,000
7. Load Metallica: 3,000,000
8. Secrets Toni Braxton: 2,900,000
9. The Woman In Me Shania Twain: 2,800,000
10. What’s The Story Morning Glory? Oasis: 2,600,000
So despite all of the huge decreases in album sales, Coldplay is still achieving album sales of 3 to 4 million in the USA, plus a total of over 11 million worldwide which is very impressive in any time period. Coldplay's album sales 10 years ago would likely have only been about 3 million higher worldwide at most. Coldplay has achieved, despite worse odds, the albums sales level required for the most popular bands in the industry. What they have not achieved though is a strong concert drawing ability to go with their huge album sales. Their still not where U2 was in concert drawing ability at the end of the Unforgettable Fire tour. They are about even with the Red Hot Chilli Peppers worldwide. Thing is, they sell about twice as many albums as the Chilli Peppers on the latest releases, which makes them the more popular band.
Another thing to look at is, the difficulty for new artist to get recognition and stay with a record company, make money etc. Its much harder for these bands to survive in this environment, but if things were really so fragmented as you claim, it should be easier for new artist to get into the industry, but it isn't.
At the Rock In Roll Hall of Fame awards, Bono said that if U2 were coming up today, they would have been dropped after their first album.