Looking to week 47 in the U.S.

[womanfish]

Well, since my last post didn't make the server switch, I thought I would post again with a quick look at what may happen this week on the U.S. charts.

U2 has risen 42 spots on the chart over the last 4 weeks. Do they have any upward lift left? I say they have some small upward movement left for the next 2 to 3 weeks, but anything after that depends on the success of Stuck. The other thing to look at is that there are 9 new debuts this week. There were 12 last week and U2 rose dramatically even then. So I think they will still rise slightly, up to around 60-63. They will recieve a small boost from the America United TV special, which will be reflected slightly this week, but mostly next week. With the tour and Stuck, and the heavy play of Walk On and Stuck at MTV and VH1, things are looking pretty good right now.

Other good news!!! currently at hitsdailydouble with almost all the numbers in, nsync has dropped from # 17 to #33! Their newest single debuted on the Hot 100 lower than Stuck and stayed at the same position 2 weeks in a row.
After 8 weeks they are just over 3.1 million copies sold, but at the rate they are going it will take a LONG time for them to sell the 5 million they had shipped to stores.

Also a final question: do you think it's possible that ATYCLB could be certified 4 times platinum the next audit? or just 3. I mean they have sold almost 3 to consumbers right now, do you think they would ship out a million more, or is that way too much to be sitting in stores?

[This message has been edited by womanfish (edited 09-25-2001).]

 

[womanfish]

It looks like Enya could answer a few questions for us this week. Her album popped way up in the charts this week, and it looks like U2 may also (this according to hitsdailydouble). Here is hitsdaily's report on the Enya phenomenon:

And then there's the Enya story. This week, the album jumped 18-5. Wow. Reprise has pushed 3 million units out the door since its November release, with OTC sales around the 2 million mark. And this one's only getting bigger.

That said, it's clear that the events of 9/11 have contributed to the popularity of Enya's track, "Day Without Rain." Numerous radio stations have created their own "tribute" mixes, using news bites against an Enya soundbed. According to one programmer, "tribute mix" or not, Enya's music could hardly be more appropriate for these troubled times.


So it looks like the effects of the tragedy on the music buying public is hitting the charts this week. I assumed it was more in effect last week, but I think I was wrong, which bodes well for U2's chart position, as they have gotten quite a bit of airplay since the tragedy, because their music is soulful, emotional and uplifting. It's cool to see that there are other people out there looking to U2's music to help ease their pain like I did.

This article also shows that U2 could indeed be certified 4x's platinum in the U.S. next time they are audited. it says Enya has sold around 2 million to consumers and the record company has shipped 3 million. Well U2 is closing in on the 3 million mark to consumers! Very cool indeed.

Can't wait to see where they land on Billboard on Thursday

[This message has been edited by womanfish (edited 09-25-2001).]

 

[vox626]

WOMANFISH- I am very sure that U2 will increase yet again since hitsdailydouble has them at #50. I know its tough to use "hits" as an accurate source but since they were not on the list last week and they are this week it shows that some sort of increase has happened. I feel, and tell me what you think, that there are a few major factors left-
1)Tribute show in which they performed Walk on
2)Stuck in a moment has begun to show very positive air play signs
3)The tour, which according to pollstar has already sold out the first 13 dates to go on sale, will level sales off or hold them still for october and november.
4)If u2 could some how be in the top 50 for thanksgiving then they will feel the huge sales push that normaly occurs for that week and the few weeks leading up to xmass.
5)The grammy nominations come out in january and if they are nominated and win(knocking on wood as I write) then sales will surge yet again.
6) The last hope would be for another hit single like wild honey or kite to be sent to radio.
7)U2 scores the title song for the star wars movie that comes out next summer....Im thinking Grace or Elevation. Wishful thinking, I know! what do you think friend!!!!

 

[womanfish]

yes! I like the way you think. I agree that they have a very good chance to hold in the top 50 or so through November. I think it depends a LOT on Stuck. The tour will definitely help a bit.

I am hoping for Wild honey I think. I like IALW better, but for radio, I think WH could do well.

I am not placing any bets on the Grammys. I have a feeling they will get burned this year.

But of course I keep all my thoughts optimistic! Here's hoping they make Billboard top 50!

 

[doctorwho]

Based on some radio charts I saw, I think "Stuck..." might sadly

drop this week on the Billboard charts! I hope I am wrong and this song at least becomes a Top 40 hit, but...

 

[Zoomerang96]

what makes you think that it dropped?? is your hunch a reliable one??

------------------
-death bear

 

[womanfish]

doctorwho, I must say that I wouldn't be totally surprised at Stuck decreasing a little. So many stations are playing songs like Peace on Earth, Walk On, One, etc... that if they were playing Stuck, they probably played it a lot less to get in other U2 songs. It's unfortunate because it most likely won't rise again. A single usually only has one tragectory, up and then down. Singles don't bounce around like albums.

 

[STING]

Womenfish,
Enya's album has been at over 2 million to consumers for some time now. With the boost into the top 10 recently, its easy to say why it has now shipped 3 million. It had already sold over two million soundscan, perhaps 2.5 million, and the recent boost forced record stores to order more. Top 10 means 100,000 or more sales per week often. Since record stores do their orders based on what they think they will sell in the next 4 to 5 weeks, I can see why Enya has shipped 3 million.
U2 on the other hand is improving, but are not anywhere close to hitting 4 million shipped. For an album out as long as U2s you can usually figure out the shipment figure by adding the soundscan total for the album 2,837,000 in U2s case to 5 times the current sound scan figure for the week. That would put the shipment figure at 2,962,000 copies shipped and 2,862,000 copies sold to consumers with about 25,000 of those copies for this week.
I predict U2 will recieve the Triple Platinum award right before the start of the 3rd leg tour on October 10.