Years ago, 45 rpm records (vinyl) sold very well - better than albums. Singles were the big thing. Billboard would base their singles chart on sales, radio play and jukebox play (yes, you read correctly). In the 50's and 60's, jukeboxes were huge and played a role in the charts.
However, as time progressed, not only did jukeboxes fade out somewhat (they still exist everywhere, but no longer play a role in charts), but albums started outselling singles.
These days, barring a few exceptions, CD singles sell horribly in the U.S. As I said, there are always a few token exceptions a year, but often the #1 selling CD single might only sell 3000 or so copies in a given week. In contrast, the top selling CDs sell 100,000 to 1 million+ copies a week (depending on the artist and time of year).
With this in mind, how does one rate the popularity of songs? By their radio airplay.
Radio airplay has been a factor on the charts for ages, but with the decline in CD singles sales (and this was happening WELL before file sharing networks existed, so the RIAA can't blame them there). Therefore, Billboard revamped how the did the singles (Hot 100) charts. While sales still play a role, the bulk of song's ranking depends on its airplay.
"Vertigo" will be a hit on Modern Rock and Mainstream Rock stations. If it's a HUGE hit on these stations - meaning #1 for weeks - it may have a decent run in the Hot 100. However, if it just breaks into the Top 10 (even Top 5) on those charts, it won't be enough to give the song a great ranking on the Hot 100 charts. "Vertigo" needs to crossover a bit so that it's played on Top 40 stations or Adult stations. This is what happened with "Beautiful Day". It was a hit on the rock stations, but didn't really start going up in the Hot 100 until it crossed over.
"Beautiful Day" worked well on all the Adult stations. I'm not sure if "Vertigo" will or won't - time will tell. But at least its initial response is light years from "Discotheque". The demand for new U2 created an initial rush for "Discotheque". But then that song received some nasty buzz - people just didn't like it. Back then, Billboard only charted a song once it was released as a CD single (that has since changed). Based on its sales and that initial rush, it debuted at #10 on the Hot 100, but dropped quickly thereafter. In contrast, "Beautiful Day" became the type of song that slowly worked its way up the charts. And while it failed to reach even the Top 20 (peaking at #21), I would call it a far bigger hit simply because it spent months and months in the Hot 100.
Bottom line: if you want "Vertigo" to be hit, make sure it gets played on the radio. Start those requests now!
