Grammys Sales Predictions

[u2opia]

All,

Thanks for updating everyone on the Grammys -I followed these treads on a Thursday afternoon in Australia and felt the pain and joy of their wins.

Dr Who - I am without speech that an album can win so many awards (Record of the year twice)and not get the big gong for Album of the Year (you stated this as well in the Grammys thread). The Rock vote was split and the organisers moved things around to avoid embarrassment by having it as the last award. Walk-On is nice compensation though and at least they got one of the big three.

Which leads me to sales prediction. From my memory of last year awards, the keys to sales success at the Grammys are (in no order)

1. Play live one of your songs off your album
2. Win at least one of the big three awards
3. Win at least 3 awards or more.

U2 have delivered on all the above and should share the same sales surge that O Brother and Alicia Keys will have. Importantly, opening the show will get them maximum publicity as that is when most people are watching on TV as well.

If they won Album of the year - maybe they would have got to 100,00 copies. Instead - I predict 75,000 copies for next week or roughly double on what they did last week

 

[doctorwho]

I still find it highly unbelievable that ATYCLB failed to win "Album of the Year" considering ATYCLB won 7 Grammies, including consecutive awards for the highly prestigious "Record of the Year", with every single released from the album (to date) winning a Grammy. It just doesn't make sense. Of all the awards, I thought that one was a sure-thing.

Nevertheless, U2 won 4 awards, including perhaps the "biggest" award, namely "Record of the Year." U2 were on stage 3 times and they performed a powerful opening number. The combination of the "big win," the televised power performance and the numerous stage appearances leads me to believe that ATYCLB will see a significant sales spike this coming week.

The album is almost exactly where it was, chart-wise (it charted at #28 this week - week 69 - with 36,086 copies sold in the U.S. giving it a total of 3,521,142 copies sold), when it won 3 Grammies last year (which, in itself, is uncanny). Therefore, just like last year, I expect a sales spike into the Top 20. Will it reach the Top 10? Most likely not - only because it failed to win "Album of the Year." Also, the album will be in its 70th week of release next week. Last year, ATYCLB was a fairly new album with the tour yet to start and with only one single really getting airplay. This year, the album has seen 3 more singles released and a very successful tour. As such, I think the market has been saturated - that is, those who were going to buy ATYCLB probably already bought it. Hence, the sales spike will probably be short-lived.

As stated above, ATYCLB has now crossed the 3.52 million copies sold barrier in the U.S. A surge in sales - say to 70-80,000 copies, would put them close to 3.6 million copies sold. Then, the album will start to fall. If it slips slowly down the charts, we should see it hit 4x Platinum before it drops out of the Top 100. If it plummets off the charts, ATYCLB might have to struggle a bit to reach the 4x Platinum plateau.

[This message has been edited by doctorwho (edited 02-27-2002).]

 

[the_rehearsal]

Well, as of right now, it is already obvious what the Grammy wins are doing for O, Brother and what they arent doing as much as for U2. Amazon.com sales rank at this moment, 12:43am Central Time:
O, Brother #1
ATYCLB #4

i'll never understand what happened...

aaron

 

[spinninghead77]

This just proves that people are sheep. Why would you go out and by the O' Brother album today????

 

[womanfish]

Actually, O'brother is pretty much a staple in the top ten at Amazon.com, it's just the clientelle. Just like U2 is usually somewhere in the top 25 at Amazon.com for the past 70 weeks. Actually O'brother was number one there for the past few days, so it's hard to say what effect has actually happened.

BUT - I will say this. With the horrible decision of having O'Brother win Album of the year, U2 will sadly fail to hit the top ten. In fact I had predicted them to hit the top 3 if they had won album of the year.

I think their sales will about double, putting them at about 72,000 copies and ending up just outside the top ten. I think O'Brother may go to either number 1 or number 2. This is the same album that would bounce into the top ten every time the slightest little thing happened to "promote" it. When the DVD came out, when the golden globes were on, etc... Hitsdailydouble made a funny comment one time saying something like - this week George Clooney sneezed and the album jumped up 12 spots.

So watch for this one to go to the top.

Also think Alicia will hit top 5.

I am just sooooo pissed about the whole damn thing. Worst yet, the album really didn't get recognized at all! As they somehow felt it appropriate to not even award best rock album on the air!

Oh well, what's done is done. I just can't believe that the Academy would pull another somewhat embarrassing win. I mean last years album of the year was embarrassing, but at least somewhat understandable as ALL of the nominees were weak.

[This message has been edited by womanfish (edited 02-28-2002).]

 

[mike63]

Originally posted by doctorwho:
I still find it highly unbelievable that ATYCLB failed to win "Album of the Year" considering ATYCLB won 7 Grammies, including consecutive awards for the highly prestigious "Record of the Year", with every single released from the album (to date) winning a Grammy. It just doesn't make sense. Of all the awards, I thought that one was a sure-thing.

Nevertheless, U2 won 4 awards, including perhaps the "biggest" award, namely "Record of the Year." U2 were on stage 3 times and they performed a powerful opening number. The combination of the "big win," the televised power performance and the numerous stage appearances leads me to believe that ATYCLB will see a significant sales spike this coming week.

The album is almost exactly where it was, chart-wise (it charted at #28 this week - week 69 - with 36,086 copies sold in the U.S. giving it a total of 3,521,142 copies sold), when it won 3 Grammies last year (which, in itself, is uncanny). Therefore, just like last year, I expect a sales spike into the Top 20. Will it reach the Top 10? Most likely not - only because it failed to win "Album of the Year." Also, the album will be in its 70th week of release next week. Last year, ATYCLB was a fairly new album with the tour yet to start and with only one single really getting airplay. This year, the album has seen 3 more singles released and a very successful tour. As such, I think the market has been saturated - that is, those who were going to buy ATYCLB probably already bought it. Hence, the sales spike will probably be short-lived.

Actually, ATYCLB is No 26 this week on Billboard, not 28.

Mike

 

[doctorwho]

Originally posted by mike63:
Actually, ATYCLB is No 26 this week on Billboard, not 28.

Mike

You're looking at the wrong week, Mike. Check Billboard again. Last week it was #26, this week (Week 69 of its release) it is #28.

 

[mike63]

Originally posted by the_rehearsal:
Well, as of right now, it is already obvious what the Grammy wins are doing for O, Brother and what they arent doing as much as for U2. Amazon.com sales rank at this moment, 12:43am Central Time:
O, Brother #1
ATYCLB #4

i'll never understand what happened...

aaron

Me neither, but 4 (7 in total) is pretty good going. Anyway, ATYCLB now at 2 on Amazon !

Mike

 

[U24me]

Well,

I am stuck in a hospital room, and have been watching TV pretty much around the clock since the Grammies. Just about every news channel. I also have probably surfed the entire web.

I was on that same roller coaster last night...it started off awesome, then I got sick of the Marmaladies and Keys, was mildly entertained by the tunes played from O Brother, stunned by the Album award, but then happy again when U2 won at the end. In fact, my wife said it just seemed like a U2 awards show. They started it off, played by far the best song live, won a few more in the middle, and then ended the show as well.

So I tried to objectively watch the news today. It pretty much came across the same way all day - U2, Keys, and O Brother steal the grammies. Not always in that order, but pretty balanced just the same. I've found many articles on the web along those same lines. What's interesting, and I guess to be expected, is that U2 headlines almost all the Grammy headlines outside of the U.S.

So, in the end, 7 grammies for this album is well deserved. If this thread is really about predictions, then I'll make one here. Last year, I think the 3 grammies for BD bumped them all the way to 11. This year, I think the 4 grammies will take them one spot higher, maybe two. Not bad, not bad at all.

P.S. The best article is the ESPN diary over on youtwo.net. Those guys are always cracking me up, and even with their jabs at Bono, you can tell they are big fans.

 

[Danospano]

After the Superbowl, which was watched by over 80 million Americans, U2 only managed to reach #25. What makes anyone think they'll enter the Top 10, let alone the Top 15, when the Grammy television ratings are usually around 25-30 million viewers? I think they'll go up about 5-10 spots, but that's all.
Had they won Album of the Year, the press would have deemed the event, "U2 Mania", and their name would be published in every article's title and headline. That would have propelled them to the Top 10, but the same people who watched this year's Grammys are the ones who watched LAST year's Grammys. Dr. Who is correct in believing that U2 has already saturated the market.

 

[womanfish]

In reply to Danospano. The grammys are whole other ballgame than the Superbowl (no pun intended)

People watch the Superbowl for the game, and maybe some funny new commercials. They aren't watching it too see who the cream of musical crop is. Most people watching the superbowl halftime could really care less about U2, and well it did seem to convince some people to check out the new album. With just them playing to a bunch of everyday joes watching the game in jumped them up 41 spots. They were sitting in the 60's and jumped into the 20's!!! Now they are still at number 28 and they not only performed in front of a huge TV audience but they won 4 awards.

A lot of us here are BIG music fans. We know what we like and we own what we like. But a big portion of people out there watch the grammys to figure out what they will buy next. Wow U2 won record of the year and rock album of the year, maybe I should get that album. Much more direct than the Superbowl IMO.

I do agree with you that their jump will not be as big as we would have hoped. Actully I somewhat agree with you on chart placement too. I think they will be just outside the top ten. Maybe, just maybe number 9?? But we have Alanis, Kylie Mynogue, Creed, J.Lo, Alan Jackson, Linkin Park, O'Brother, and Alicia Keys, and maybe a couple others all jamming up the top ten.

 

[STING2]

One comment about "saturation" in the USA. I do not consider having radio airplay, where the first single reaches #21, the second and third fail to chart and the fourth peakes at #52, to be saturation in the USA. Sustained radio airplay is the key to album sales and I do not think U2 recieved a saturating radio airplay level during 2001. Despite that fact the album has more than doubled the sales of POP. My point is there is room for more exposure of the album and that a new single needs to be promoted at radio.

 

[Danospano]

Womanfish, I understand you comment, and I take back what I said.

I still highly doubt U2 will make it to the Top 10. Considering that U2 won four awards, including Record of the Year, I'd say they'll jump about 10-15 spots. #12-#16.

 

[mike63]

Some early iundications of sales, although I expect that today is the big one in terms of sales:

Amazon - still at 2 (Best Of 60)

Wal*Mart - 6 (Best Of 66)

HMV - 4

Virgin - 9

Being in the UK I have no idea how representative these retailers are of the overall sales - but interesting anyway.

Mike