Originally, I thought that if ATYCLB could "survive" through this past holiday season, that this could give it sales around 3.3 million before the album slowly fell from the charts.
The first part of that prediction came through. I estimate sales at 40,000 copies in the U.S. in Week 61. This may seem high, since it was "post-Christmas" but last year, Christmas week still saw strong sales. This is due to some last minute holiday shopping (recall, Christmas was on a Tuesday, meaning Monday's sales counted for Week 61) and kids were off from school and people from work. As such, sales don't drop quite as much as expected from the pre-Christmas week to Christmas week. The true post-Christmas week, which will be this week (or Week 62 in the U.S.) will see sales return to normal levels.
Therefore, with my estimate of 40,000 copies sold in the U.S., this puts U.S. sales at 3.3 million copies.
However, instead of the album now slowly fading from the charts, it appears U2 will give the album a new life, by their appearances at the Super Bowl and at the Grammies. Plus, sales this week might be strong because U2 was featured on some New Year's TV celebrations.
And now that U2 has received a whopping 8 Grammy nods and will most likely win at least a few Grammies, and with the Rolling Stone magazine sweep as well as SPIN magazine's "Band of the Year" titles, ATYCLB may stay strong, floating between positions #50-85 through March. That's another 12 weeks with sales of at least 20,000 copies per week, meaning another 250,000 copies sold. There may also be a few spikes in there after the Super Bowl and Grammies. This could very well put ATYCLB at 3.6 million copies sold before it finally starts to fall from the Top 100.
Now, if there is another hit song from the album, ATYCLB may linger even longer in the Top 100. If so, this should bring it to the 3.7 to 3.9 million mark - hopefully enough to obtain 4x Platinum status before the album truly falls out of the Top 200. If this happens, I will be incredibly elated. While I wanted 3x Platinum, I truly hope ATYCLB hits 4x Platinum before it falls off the charts. And there's a chance - albeit with a bit of luck - that this could happen.
However, rather that push for that 4x Platinum mark just yet, for now, I'll stay conservative and state that I predict another 250,000 copies sold by the end of March, bringing total U.S. sales to just under 3.6 million copies.
