The NFL Thread Part IV: Super Bowl Edition.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Your Super Bowl Odds for 2007...
Team - Opening Odds / Odds as of 2/6
Indianapolis Colts 7/2 4/1
Seattle Seahawks 5/1 5/1
New England Patriots 7/2 4/1
Carolina Panthers 6/1 6/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1 6/1
Dallas Cowboys 10/1 10/1
San Diego Chargers 10/1 10/1
Denver Broncos 15/1 10/1
New York Giants 15/1 15/1
Chicago Bears 15/1 15/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15/1 15/1
Cincinnati Bengals 18/1 18/1
Washington Redskins 20/1 20/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 22/1 22/1
Kansas City Chiefs 22/1 22/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1 25/1
Philadelphia Eagles 25/1 20/1
Miami Dolphins 25/1 20/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1 25/1
Green Bay Packers 35/1 35/1
Baltimore Ravens 40/1 40/1
Cleveland Browns 50/1 50/1
St. Louis Rams 50/1 50/1
Buffalo Bills 50/1 50/1
Oakland Raiders 60/1 60/1
Arizona Cardinals 60/1 60/1
Detroit Lions 60/1 50/1
Houston Texans 75/1 75/1
New Orleans Saints 75/1 75/1
San Francisco 49ers 100/1 100/1
Tennessee Titans 100/1 100/1
New York Jets 125/1 100/1

 

[popacrobat]

Pats.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

what? no love for the J-E-T-S-JETS-JETS-JETS?

 

[redsoxfan]

How do they come up with those odds?

 

[ljclary]

what? no love for the J-E-T-S-JETS-JETS-JETS?

With Herm gone I just cannot see how the have a shot.


Do the oddmakers look at the Colts record in the off season? Or, like the NFL, just love to lick Peyton's ass.


I am already pissed off about next season by this.













damn it.

 

[speedracer]

what? no love for the J-E-T-S-JETS-JETS-JETS?

Yeah, really. Losing Herm Edwards has to bump them up a bit, doesn't it?

 

[Hewson]

How do they come up with those odds?

There are professional oddsmakers who develop them as well as the daily point spreads/odds on football/basketball/baseball/hockey games. Some work directly for casino sportsbooks, some are consultants. These guys have been doing it for years. Its not so much about being right as in the favorite (Colts again, puhleeze) winning its about getting the odds to where the casinos won't lose money. For example the SuperBowl, the biggest betting event, they don't want a pointspread that reflects the outcome of the game, they want one where equal money comes in on both teams, so the casinos will collect the vigorish aka "juice", the 10% extra you lay to place a bet (example 110 to win 100).

Example:
In a perfect world The Hewson Headache Casino and Entertainment Complex would have taken say 2 million in bets on both the Steelers and Seahawks.
Collecting $2.2mil from Seahawks bettors and paying out $2mil to Steelers bettors.
$200,000 profit. Apply same formula to the over/under, and list as many proposition bets as possible (these are a boon to sportsbooks), and the casino turns a nice profit on super Sunday.

As for the futures bets, because there are 32 teams, casinos will always win here, even if a longshot wins the SuperBowl, so many more people will have bet on the top favored 5 or 6 teams that casinos will always win.


And for those who care to wager on futures...Hewson's tip: Playing the Colts, Pats, Steelers, Seahawks or Panthers isn't really worth it as the odds are low.
These are gimmicky bets, so you should look for a team with decent odds who may have a shot.
Hewson's future play recommendation for next year's SuperBowl is the Washington Redskins at 20-1. That is the best combination of value and realistic shot at getting the job done.

 

[Hewson]

what? no love for the J-E-T-S-JETS-JETS-JETS?

The NY betting contingent is always a major factor in Vegas, and they have already laid enough money on the Jets to drop them from 125-1 to 100-1.
Expect the G-men to drop from their 15-1 and settle around 10-1 or 12-1, so if you want to take a shot, do it early.
NY bettors are a large contingent in Vegas sportsbooks.

 

[Hewson]

Do the oddmakers look at the Colts record in the off season? Or, like the NFL, just love to lick Peyton's ass.


I am already pissed off about next season by this.

Like I said, oddsmakers don't care who wins, they set these odds based on where the public will put their money, and the Colts will get a lot of interest once again because already 2/3 of the ESPN staff has predicted they will finally win the Superbowl next year.
The public love offensive teams, like the 80's Niners, the 90's Rams and the 2000's Colts.
Lots of money will go on Indy.
Not necessarliy the smart money, the average Joe money.

 

[randhail]

These odds need to be taken with a grain of salt given that we haven't had any free agency movement, the draft is still 2.5 months away, and salary cap cuts haven't taken place yet.

 

[Imarocker]

Pats.

dream on patsies are all done...getting old & no secondary...

Steelers are a good bet at 6:1 I'll put $500 on that.

 

[speedracer]

These odds need to be taken with a grain of salt given that we haven't had any free agency movement, the draft is still 2.5 months away, and salary cap cuts haven't taken place yet.

No kidding. I guess if Vegas can bring in money on those odds for the Colts when Edgerrin James is practically out the door, good for them.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

this whole "the pats are getting old" thing makes me laugh.

last i checked brady was 28, and bellichick wasn't going anywhere.

besides, besides brady, it's not like they were a team of stars anyway... they just fill the gaps and move on.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

In a perfect world The Hewson Headache Casino and Entertainment Complex would have taken say 2 million in bets on both the Steelers and Seahawks.

i love the hewson headache casino entertainment complex

still have a place in my heart for the original headache hewson center, though...

 

[speedracer]

H&H have done nice things with the old Bellagio since acquiring it from MGM Mirage. Now if they'd just get rid of the auto-shufflers at the blackjack tables, I'd head out there every weekend.

 

[Hewson]

H&H have done nice things with the old Bellagio since acquiring it from MGM Mirage. Now if they'd just get rid of the auto-shufflers at the blackjack tables, I'd head out there every weekend.

We're working on that, trying to hire voluptuous college coeds to shuffle the cards instead.

 

[phanan]

Ah, the original Hewson Headache Center...

 

[randhail]

wow you guys even alternate who's name is first on the building. It's no wonder why you are so successful.

 

[popacrobat]

i spent many-a-hours standing in front of where that headache hewson center picture was taken this year.

 

[phanan]

U2 rocked the Hewson Headache Center a lot last year.

 

[Chizip]

We're working on that, trying to hire voluptuous college coeds to shuffle the cards instead.

stealing ideas from the new Hooters casino

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

U2 rocked the Hewson Headache Center a lot last year.

they did, but not nearly as often as they rocked Headache Square Garden...

 

[popacrobat]

i spent many-a-hours at the headache square garden too.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

did you make sure to follow all the rules posted around the arena?

 

[popacrobat]

yes, yes i did. i cant believe i missed that the first time. nicely done.

 

[ljclary]

Seeing since I can not even get a picture with my name on this site...your computer skills Headache astonish me...well done!!

 

[Imarocker]

I believe U2 also played 7 nites in Boston

May 24 Boston, MA - Fleet Center, Sold Out
May 26 Boston, MA - Fleet Center, Sold Out
May 28 Boston, MA - Fleet Center, Sold Out
03rd October Boston - Fleet Center, Sold Out
04th October Boston - Fleet Center, Sold Out
04th December, Boston, TD Banknorth Garden, Sold Out
05th December, Boston, TD Banknorth Garden, Sold Out

1 less show than the msg

 

[Hewson]

Peyton is also not welcome at the casino.
Patrons feel he's a jinx, Peyton the mush if you will, and don't want him in the building while they are gambling.

However for our less than high rollers, we do offer the Peyton Manning suite at a discounted rate of $69/night. It has our version of the Murphy Bed, the Manning Bed, to allow for more space during the day. Just apply a little pressure up the middle and instantly folds.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Peyton is also not welcome at the casino.
Patrons feel he's a jinx, Peyton the mush if you will, and don't want him in the building while they are gambling.

However for our less than high rollers, we do offer the Peyton Manning suite at a discounted rate of $69/night. It has our version of the Murphy Bed, the Manning Bed, to allow for more space during the day. Just apply a little pressure up the middle and instantly folds.

zing!

 

[Hewson]

Its temperature sensitive as well, folds extremely easily in January.
We've yet to be able to test it in February.