Australia's odds are kinda poor because you're going to have to get past permanent favourites New Zealand to just reach the final, let alone win. I think New Zealand could have lost every game in the Tri-Nations and they'd still go in favourites, but I think the reason no-one's really rating your victory over us is due to a few reasons:
1. Different squad. New Zealand at present can essentially field two teams. And you guys are now looking at some injuries.
2. That game is being viewed as an anomaly, plus it had a really close result where Australia had the home ground advantage. Not to mention the fact New Zealand really should have won - putting aside the unjust red card, the All Blacks inexplicably faded in the second half, despite the fact that in every other game this year, they have worn out their opponent and dominated the second half.
3. It is also being viewed as the loss that needed to happen, the loss that came at just the right time to snap the All Blacks back to reality and make them get their basic skills nailed down. In other words, we're not rocking in as cocky as we did in 2003, having not lost a game.
4. Further to that, we came back and beat you in the most recent meeting (and by a bigger margin than we lost).
5. And we hold the Bledisloe and Tri-Nations.
6. Oh yeah, and all of New Zealand wants revenge for the 2003 semi!
I think Argentina will be a threat - I'm picking them to go through second in Group D rather than Ireland, and if they play a blinder, they could even upset France. But the thing is, if they go through as Group D's runner-up, they face New Zealand in the quarters. They have never beaten New Zealand, and excluding games played in Argentina, the All Blacks have always won by 20+ points. In other words, if I were an Argentine, I would be praying to go through first and face Scotland or Italy!