MLB 2008: The World Series

[Got Philk?]

If Manny had stayed, who knows what would have happened in Boston. Bay did very well. He's not Manny, but what if Manny had stayed and stopped working hard and became a problem in the clubhouse? What if he hit .200 and didn't hustle on plays? Would they have beaten the Angels? Who knows.

I don't think you can say, "Boston would be in the World Series if they still had Manny." If they still had a happy Manny, yes. But he's surely capable of going the other way too and taking his team with him.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

If Manny had stayed, who knows what would have happened in Boston. Bay did very well. He's not Manny, but what if Manny had stayed and stopped working hard and became a problem in the clubhouse? What if he hit .200 and didn't hustle on plays? Would they have beaten the Angels? Who knows.

I don't think you can say, "Boston would be in the World Series if they still had Manny." If they still had a happy Manny, yes. But he's surely capable of going the other way too and taking his team with him.

yea i hear this in the media from like everyone except for mike francesa, who shares the same man love for manny that i have.

manny has a track record of tanking prior to the deadline, asking for a trade, then performing like the same old manny ramirez once the deadline passed. other than the year when the yankees took that huge sweep in boston and pretty much eliminated the sox 3 weeks before the season, manny ALWAYS performed after his "i hate it here trade me" whines.

why anyone believes that this time would be different, i do not know. it's like everyone's ignoring the past history. manny is a goofball. he's a primadona. he's also the best RBI guy any of us have ever seen, and for whatever reason, i honestly believe he's underrated.

case in point.

alex rodriguez - 7860 at bats, .306 avg, 553 homers, 1606 rbi, .578 slugging
manny ramirez - 7610 at bats, .314 avg, 527 homers, 1725 rbi, .593 slugging

 

[speedracer]

Series to go 7 games +380

For such long odds to be correct, Tampa Bay would have to be roughly a 67% favorite in each game. I'm pretty sure Tampa Bay isn't that good.

 

[speedracer]

yea i hear this in the media from like everyone except for mike francesa, who shares the same man love for manny that i have.

manny has a track record of tanking prior to the deadline, asking for a trade, then performing like the same old manny ramirez once the deadline passed. other than the year when the yankees took that huge sweep in boston and pretty much eliminated the sox 3 weeks before the season, manny ALWAYS performed after his "i hate it here trade me" whines.

why anyone believes that this time would be different, i do not know. it's like everyone's ignoring the past history. manny is a goofball. he's a primadona. he's also the best RBI guy any of us have ever seen, and for whatever reason, i honestly believe he's underrated.

case in point.

alex rodriguez - 7860 at bats, .306 avg, 553 homers, 1606 rbi, .578 slugging
manny ramirez - 7610 at bats, .314 avg, 527 homers, 1725 rbi, .593 slugging

Everything you say here is true. We know this. The Red Sox players and management know this as well, having gone through this same song and dance the last 7 years. But apparently the guys who have to play with him and share a clubhouse with him day in and day out thought things were different this time (with Manny's impending free agency being an issue as well).

Did they make the right decision? Who knows, but it seems to be based on information that we don't have.

 

[Hewson]

alex rodriguez - 7860 at bats, .306 avg, 553 homers, 1606 rbi, .578 slugging
manny ramirez - 7610 at bats, .314 avg, 527 homers, 1725 rbi, .593 slugging

But you didn't put up their post season numbers where Arod rules over Manny...Ok I can't type that with a straight face.

Arod: 147 AB, .279 avg, 7 hr, 17 RBI, .483 slugging
Manny: 378 AB, .286 avg, 28 hr, 74 RBI, .550 slugging

Granted Manny has had 2.5 times the AB as Arod, but he has 4 times the HR and 4.3 times the RBI

 

[Hewson]

Series to go 7 games +380

For such long odds to be correct, Tampa Bay would have to be roughly a 67% favorite in each game. I'm pretty sure Tampa Bay isn't that good.

You mean in each of their home games?
If they were 67% favorites in all games then the odds would be way less for a 7 game series statistically. (In fact in that scenario odds would favor a sweep).

In one of those wonderful anomalies, the Rays are favored to win the series (TB -140, Phi +120, the exact price I predicted in the Worls Series long shot thread in my hedge scenario to Headache, though I've also seen -145/+125 which Headache should pounce on if he's inclined to hedge), yet the Phils are small favorites (-110) to win game 1 on the road.
In any other sport this is a clear indicator to take Philly in the series at a very favorable price, but in baseball where so much is dependent on starting pitching, Moyer going in game 3 and potentially game 7 tips the scales in TB's favor statistically.
I think Manuel should flip Blanton and Moyer, giving Blanton 3 and 7 and leaving Moyer in the game 4 only slot.

 

[Hewson]

As for the MVP prop, there are 3 guys as "co favorites" at +650, Kazmir, Coles(way down from +1650 in the NLCS) and Longoria.

I see better value in Upton at +800 if you like TB or Utley at +750 or Lidge at +1000 if you like Philly.
Interestingly the only TB reliever in the mix is David Price at +850, so apparently the assumption is that he is now the de facto closer for them and Wheeler is on the scrap heap.

NSW, did you enjoy this discussion?

 

[speedracer]

You mean in each of their home games?
If they were 67% favorites in all games then the odds would be way less for a 7 game series statistically. (In fact in that scenario odds would favor a sweep).

In one of those wonderful anomalies, the Rays are favored to win the series (TB -140, Phi +120, the exact price I predicted in the Worls Series long shot thread in my hedge scenario to Headache, though I've also seen -145/+125 which Headache should pounce on if he's inclined to hedge), yet the Phils are small favorites (-110) to win game 1 on the road.
In any other sport this is a clear indicator to take Philly in the series at a very favorable price, but in baseball where so much is dependent on starting pitching, Moyer going in game 3 and potentially game 7 tips the scales in TB's favor statistically.
I think Manuel should flip Blanton and Moyer, giving Blanton 3 and 7 and leaving Moyer in the game 4 only slot.

No, I mean 67% across the board. I didn't believe it at first, but I did the math and that's what I came up with. Obviously if Stephen Colbert gets bombed in game 1 I like my wager a lot less.

And yeah, Moyer needs to go in Game 4 across Andy Sonnansuck, but either way he only goes once in the first six games, so for the purposes of the 7-game wager I don't care too much.

 

[Hewson]

You know maths better than me (and I'm not bad at it), so I'll take your word for it.

 

[Varitek]

If only he spent that valuable time taking BP.

win!

 

[Varitek]

Oh, no, it's great to be an Angels fan.

Most of us are happy the Sox got eliminated from a series they had no business being in in the first place. A WS with the Rays will be much more interesting. And smug Red Sox fans everywhere will now keep their mouths shut.

No, no we won't. We never have (at least in my lifetime, even while we were still huge losers) and we never will. There's shit in our water, or something.

 

[Varitek]

Also, I wasn't joking when I said I miss Manny. I was gone from regular news while the bullshit and the trade went down, and I was truly sad to see him go for various reasons, including that it was not an even trade.

But without Manny, what it came down to for me is that we had tons of injuries to overcome, and we just couldn't quite get there. Seriously, 3-1? No run support.

 

[phillyfan26]

Vazza, just ignore John, he's kind of an idiot.

 

[MrPryck2U]

Vazza, just ignore John, he's kind of an idiot.

As, much as we don't agree with the guy, you can't call him an idiot.



Btw, this is the "World Series" thread. Fuck Manny! He ain't in the World Series.

 

[lazarus]

There's always a reason to talk Manny:

Could Manny Ramirez join the Cubs? -- chicagotribune.com

Make it happen, Hendry.

 

[No spoken words]

As for the MVP prop, there are 3 guys as "co favorites" at +650, Kazmir, Coles(way down from +1650 in the NLCS) and Longoria.

I see better value in Upton at +800 if you like TB or Utley at +750 or Lidge at +1000 if you like Philly.
Interestingly the only TB reliever in the mix is David Price at +850, so apparently the assumption is that he is now the de facto closer for them and Wheeler is on the scrap heap.

NSW, did you enjoy this discussion?

Every second of it.

What would be interesting is a thread dedicated to sports gambling, and you keep us updated, let's say weekly, on where you're at season to date......

 

[No spoken words]

There's always a reason to talk Manny:

Could Manny Ramirez join the Cubs? -- chicagotribune.com

Make it happen, Hendry.

"Tommy, I'd like you to meet the kid, Henry."

"How ya doin' Hendry?"

 

[speedracer]

Every second of it.

What would be interesting is a thread dedicated to sports gambling, and you keep us updated, let's say weekly, on where you're at season to date......

I'm sure you'll be fascinated to know that there's approximately a 1 in 1200 chance of Taco Bell not giving away free tacos.

 

[No spoken words]

Always bet on black.

 

[Nate Dogg]

Going to the game tonight! Got tickets late yesterday and I'm so pumped...GO PHIILIES!

 

[Hewson]

"Tommy, I'd like you to meet the kid, Henry."

"How ya doin' Hendry?"

"Hendry got pinched"

 

[Hewson]

What would be interesting is a thread dedicated to sports gambling,
......

Feel free to start it up.

 

[phillyfan26]

My prediction: Rays in 6.

 

[No spoken words]

"Hendry got pinched"

Thank you for getting that!

 

[Got Philk?]

Ooo, let's give Manny a 8 year multi-million dollar contract. Then we'd have 2 highly paid left fielders. And...we could keep Manny until he's like 45 years old!

 

[DaveC]

World Series. Holy fuck. Let's go Phillies.

Prediction: Phillies split in TB, then sweep in Philadelphia. Phils in 5.

 

[GirlsAloudFan]

My prediction: Rays in 6.

To me, that is ridiculous. I understand you're trying to look at it objectively and maybe you have other motives for saying this...but I just don't understand how your team could be in the friggin World Series and you pick against them.

It's your team. They've made it this far. Have a little faith. Or even a little confidence. Enlighten me if you want to but that just baffles me.

To each his own, I suppose.

 

[phillyfan26]

I'm rooting for them all the way and absolutely think they can win.

I just think the AL is so much better than the NL, and that the Phils will have a tough time hitting off any of Tampa's starters.

Ideally, I want the Phils to win it all and win it at home.

When the game's are going on, this prediction won't matter.

 

[GirlsAloudFan]

Cool, I gotcha.

By the way I'm really looking forward to watching this tonight. And the whole series for that matter. Even though Tropicana Field is the pinnacle of annoying sports arenas.

I've got a fever and the only prescription is less cowbell.

 

[phillyfan26]

Philadelphia Phillies
Game 1 Lineup

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Switch
2. Jayson Werth, RF, Right
3. Chase Utley, 2B, Left
4. Ryan Howard, 1B, Left
5. Pat Burrell, LF, Right
6. Shane Victorino, CF, Switch
7. Pedro Feliz, 3B, Right
8. Chris Coste, DH, Right
9. Carlos Ruiz, C, Right

SP: Cole Hamels