Mathemetician in the house? What are actual odds of getting GA tix?

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u2wedge

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Assuming that only fans could get GA tix (no scalpers), and that there is an internet population that can get tickets online just as easily as the guy standing in line at the box office, what are the actual probable odds of an average fan getting a pair of general admission tickets to any given U2 concert.

Let's assume there are 2000 GA tickets for a given venue.

Anyone? Bueller?

And if anyone wants to get ambitious and compute the odds when factoring in scalpers, have at it! (zero is not a correct answer...)
 
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I know you said average fans, but

Brokers 4:1
Joe Shmoe 1,000,000:1

Let's just say if you got 2 GA's during a general sale, you should consider playing Mega Ball more often.
 
I think you had a better shot if you went for a single ga. I didn't try for a pair just a single and got 1 for 5/26 (phone) and 10/14 (tm.com) during a general sale.
 
Anyone want to take a stab at the actual statistical possibility?

19,000 seat venue
2000 General Admission tix
Approx. 500,000 trying for tickets (not sure if this is a realistic number)
 
There's no point in trying for 1 GA. You might as well try for 2. They are sold in sequential order. Like 99-100 and 555-556. The chances of you getting the single last GA is slim.
 
U2fan05 said:
There's no point in trying for 1 GA. You might as well try for 2. They are sold in sequential order. Like 99-100 and 555-556. The chances of you getting the single last GA is slim.

huh? :huh:

Did you read my first post? It would be very possible to buy 1 GA, btw.
 
Assuming that 25% of the 500,000 fans trying for tickets are trying specifically for GAs, and that 50% of these people are trying for the tickets within 10 minutes of the tickets going onsale, the odds of getting your GA order filled, assuming the average order is 1.7 GAs, is 2000 / (62,500 x 1.7), or 1.88%. Of course, this is assuming that you place your order within 10 minutes of public onsale. If you are earlier, your odds will increase, and vice versa.
 
cmb737 said:
There is no way to figure the odds, every single part of the equation is an unknown.


hint: that is why I gave the numbers of the equation... it was HYPOTHETICAL.

2000 is an accurate number for GA tix, btw. Elevation was 300 inside the heart, 1700 outside for arena shows.

jeesh.
 
All I know is that not long after I got a pair of GA's, I went and bought a lottery ticket. Of course, at that point I had already won the lottery! :happy:

Anyway, I'll give this a shot. Lets say there are 2000 GA's and a capacity of 20000 in the arena. So 10% of the total tickets sold were GA's. At one local ticketmaster outlet about 1/4 of people in line got tickets, so if that was representative of everywhere, then the answer would be 1/4 of 10%, or 2.5% of fans got GA's.

But this was Toronto, where there were 4 shows. Some areas had more people going for fewer tickets. On the other hand, I think the odds might be a little bit better on the internet compared to lining up. And Toronto is also a big city. If these factors roughly balance out, we're back to 2.5%. Which is still a very small number!

All of this assumes no scalpers, doesn't consider pre-sales, etc., etc.
 
u2wedge said:



hint: that is why I gave the numbers of the equation... it was HYPOTHETICAL.

2000 is an accurate number for GA tix, btw. Elevation was 300 inside the heart, 1700 outside for arena shows.

jeesh.

What the hell is your problem dude? What I was stating was that there are million things that you do not know. And what is the poing of having odds based on hypotheical situations? Does that give you any clearer idea? No..it is just a guess.

Here are some more things you would need to factor in:

People accessing the ticketmaster website
People accessing the phone system
People standing in line at TM outlets
People standing in line at Box Offices
Employees with tickets on hold at the venue
Employees with tickets on hold at TM
Promoter held tickets for media
Server limitations
Connection speed of the average fan
Onsale time for every venue
Market size of that venue

Those are just a few of the factors that would need to be computed, to give you an estimate. Not sure what the odds tell anyone without factoring in these variables.

My guess: Odds are not good.

My response to your overall tone towards me: Surprise.

Man, you are starting all kinds of threads every day so don't be surprised when people respond to you in different ways. If you don't want responses from people with different viewpoints, don't start so many damn threads. As for me, I am going to stop responding to them and bumping them up each time. I think you and I look at the world very differently and I have a feeling this goes back to our Ebay debate (and I see on your blog that you have changed your mind). Regardless, let's just keep it civil and keep the comments like "jeesh" and "spoonfed" for someone else. If you want to talk about it further, PM me.
 
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OldTimerU2Fan said:
I know you said average fans, but

Brokers 4:1
Joe Shmoe 1,000,000:1

Let's just say if you got 2 GA's during a general sale, you should consider playing Mega Ball more often.

I think the odds are good except in the following markets which are Boston, New York, Philly, Chicago, and LA. The rest you can obtain through the phone and internet. New York there is no chance in hell . Only way is to be first at a ticketmaster outlet.
 
GA is just lucky usually if u log in quick.. actually ny is not that hard to get tix.. i got 3 or 4 tix to a couple of the shows
 
cmb737 said:


What the hell is your problem dude? What I was stating was that there are million things that you do not know. And what is the poing of having odds based on hypotheical situations? Does that give you any clearer idea? No..it is just a guess.

Here are some more things you would need to factor in:

People accessing the ticketmaster website
People accessing the phone system
People standing in line at TM outlets
People standing in line at Box Offices
Employees with tickets on hold at the venue
Employees with tickets on hold at TM
Promoter held tickets for media
Server limitations
Connection speed of the average fan
Onsale time for every venue
Market size of that venue

Those are just a few of the factors that would need to be computed, to give you an estimate. Not sure what the odds tell anyone without factoring in these variables.

My guess: Odds are not good.

My response to your overall tone towards me: Surprise.

Man, you are starting all kinds of threads every day so don't be surprised when people respond to you in different ways. If you don't want responses from people with different viewpoints, don't start so many damn threads. As for me, I am going to stop responding to them and bumping them up each time. I think you and I look at the world very differently and I have a feeling this goes back to our Ebay debate (and I see on your blog that you have changed your mind). Regardless, let's just keep it civil and keep the comments like "jeesh" and "spoonfed" for someone else. If you want to talk about it further, PM me.

cmb, my frustration is not stemming from the fact that you pose opposing viewpoints to my posts, but that
your tone and attitude is almost troll-like, and you don't back anything up with hard facts only your opinion. You also inaccuarately
generalize and mischaracterize my comments, and post things just to dillute a thread. For instance, I created a post asking someone
to calculate the odds of getting GA tix. Now I am well aware of the fact that this would be almost impossible
to do based on the number of variables involved in the 'real world', but it would be interesting to many to know what the GENERAL
odds were based on a given set of conditions, which I subsequently provided. Simple enough. Then you make a post
that says something like, 'This is impossible to figure out, there are too many variables...'coming across as though you
didn't even read my original post. It was a hypothetical question seeking some general odds, very simple concept.

Another example... I post a thread reminding everyone about the possibility of the 'audio spotlight' technology
that was discussed well before the Vertigo Tour was called 'The Vertigo Tour', and that it might be something
to look forward to in the upcoming shows. Very simple comment, not intended to become a technical discussion,
just something to be excited about. You then post something like "I don't think this is something that would work
in an arena... that you couldn't imagine someone hearing silence while another person is hearing BTBS?" and generally dismissing
it as something that would serve no function. This is after I post a link to the article explaining that the band
loved the technology, flew the manufacturer to a venue to test/measure, and would like to try to incorporate it into their shows, if possible.

Example 3... In another member's post about their frustration with their inability to get tickets and only
being able to get overpriced tickets from the broker who, as I replied pointing out the irony, is a sponsor of
this forum, you simply make a post, not addressing what the original poster was talking about, referencing another
debate that we had about tickets over a week ago in a completely different thread. Your insinuation that because it was discussed
once, that it should not be discussed again was unnecesary.

Example 4.. I make a light hearted comment that the best thing about Canadian tickets is that they are $40US for GA. Then you make a
comment that says, 'Yeah, too bad the dollar is as weak as it is..' which makes entirely no sense in regard to what I posted, and
again, would have been humorously sarcastic if it was relevant to what I had posted. But it came across as someone just making an irrelevant comment to illicit a flame response.

And you again mischaracterized my anti scalper position. On my blog I clearly state that I 'reluctantly take the position of endorsing eBay sales as long as the seller is a fellow fan and they have positive feedback, of course.' I do not endorse broker scalping, nor condone their sponsorhip of this forum.

So, in general, I am frustrated with what, in essence, are troll-like responses and an apparent glass-half-empty attitude. I have not
seen one post from you that shows any excitement or anything positive about the upcoming tour. You don't seem
to have anything to say unless it's in response to someone's post (in this case, mine) and then just dump negativity all over
it. Someone else commented about the nature of your posts as well, so I know I am not the only one who perceives your
comments rooted in some sort of pessimistic bitterness. Please, correct me if you think I'm wrong or off base, but that is the way
I see it. Are you excited about the tour? What are you looking forward to? What does U2 mean to you? My posts are rooted in a passion about the band and the fans that make the U2 experience the amazing experience that it is. I get upset at scalpers taking advantage of fellow fans, and that is the root of my anti scalping argument. Everything else is about the experience that U2 provides and they ways that they accomplish that. Simply said.

You are a u2 fan, so I'm trying to have an open mind about where you are coming from, but it just seems to be a pattern with your replies to my posts. It may just be easier if we each look the other way when we see each other on the boards.

Peace.
 
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u2bigfans said:
GA is just lucky usually if u log in quick.. actually ny is not that hard to get tix.. i got 3 or 4 tix to a couple of the shows

We are talking about General Admission tickets not reserved seats.
 
u2wedge said:
Anyone want to take a stab at the actual statistical possibility?

19,000 seat venue
2000 General Admission tix
Approx. 500,000 trying for tickets (not sure if this is a realistic number)

Using your scenario (and to put this in perspective):

There are three possible outcomes:
1. Get a GA ticket (2000)
2. Get a non-GA ticket (19000-2000=17000)
3. Get no ticket (500000-19000=481000)

If there are 500,000 unique instances of people trying to get one ticket until the time the show sells out then there will be 500,000 valid outcomes. Defining the odds as number of positive outcomes divided by number of total valid outcomes, then:

Odds to get GA = 2000/500000 = 0.4% = 1:250
Odds to get non-GA = 17000/500000 = 3.4% = 1:29
Odds to get no ticket = 481,000/500,000 = 96.2% = essentially even.

The X-factor is determining the total valid outcomes. This is the total number of individual “tries” to get tickets before the sellout. (All the tries after the show sells out are meaningless because a sellout means it is now statistically impossible to get any tickets). Then you just divide the number of positive outcomes by the total valid outcomes to get the probability.

If you increase the total outcomes by an order of magnitude (to 5,000,000) you get 0.04%. 0.34% and 99.62%. 0.04% is 1 in 2500 people. You need about 500 million unique “tries” prior to sellout before you even start to approach a one in million chance to get GA’s.

Compare this to odds of hitting the NY MegaMillions (1:135,145,920).

/end bored-at-work, commence clock watching.
 
esselte said:


Using your scenario (and to put this in perspective):

There are three possible outcomes:
1. Get a GA ticket (2000)
2. Get a non-GA ticket (19000-2000=17000)
3. Get no ticket (500000-19000=481000)

If there are 500,000 unique instances of people trying to get one ticket until the time the show sells out then there will be 500,000 valid outcomes. Defining the odds as number of positive outcomes divided by number of total valid outcomes, then:

Odds to get GA = 2000/500000 = 0.4% = 1:250
Odds to get non-GA = 17000/500000 = 3.4% = 1:29
Odds to get no ticket = 481,000/500,000 = 96.2% = essentially even.

The X-factor is determining the total valid outcomes. This is the total number of individual “tries” to get tickets before the sellout. (All the tries after the show sells out are meaningless because a sellout means it is now statistically impossible to get any tickets). Then you just divide the number of positive outcomes by the total valid outcomes to get the probability.

If you increase the total outcomes by an order of magnitude (to 5,000,000) you get 0.04%. 0.34% and 99.62%. 0.04% is 1 in 2500 people. You need about 500 million unique “tries” prior to sellout before you even start to approach a one in million chance to get GA’s.

Compare this to odds of hitting the NY MegaMillions (1:135,145,920).

/end bored-at-work, commence clock watching.

esselte, thank you! that is the type of response this thread was supposed to generate.

Thanks again for your calculations.
 
Mr U2wedge

Please forgive me for being troll like and inflammatory. My view of the situation is quite different, but you are entitled to your opinion, as am I. Reading your response I feel that you have only read a portion of my recent posts, and only in the Tours section of the board. You really have no idea how I feel, and your entire response is based on conjecture and your personal interpretation of my responses. Personal opinion is, in fact, the bulk of what is posted in Interference, and when needed I have backed up my response with facts. I also have extensive personal and professional knowledge of both the corporate workings of Ticketmaster and the music both live and recorded. I make my living that way.

I am not posting this to defend myself, as I feel no need. I am entitled to post in any way that I feel fit or necessary as long as I do not go outside the parameters set forth by the forum moderators and owners. I defy you to tell me that I am doing so, and will prove so if necessary.

I would like to respond to your several examples in kind, to allow you some insight into my responses. This is a one-time occurrence, and will not happen in the future. If you feel the need to post threads, my response may be present and you are not in the position to either judge or respond to it it by any other means than debate. I will not allow name-calling and general slander of my reputation in the forum.

1. My comment about your odds thread was that to me the representation of odds given none of the actual variables hold little to no value. What good is it to know a hypothetical odd other than for general conversation that adds nothing to the actual real dialog going on about the upcoming tour? My argument is that the post was flawed in the first place and did not better the community, but was posted for the sake of posting. I did not say this in the post, but I tried to express that there really is no way to make an accurate computation without knowing SO much more information.

2. The audio spotlight discussion was fine until you dismissed my asking for a real example of an application (for the good of the conversation) by virtually saying “we’ll see in a few days”. If we aren’t going to discuss real applications and what might be cool and what might not be cool, again what is the point of the thread? Basically to say, “hey remember this? This might be cool…no comments please.” Trivial thread, if there is no meaty discussion of what might actually be done with it. My contention is that their use might be different than the one you envisioned, but you did not allow this thread to flow that way.

3. The forum owner has clearly stated in many, many threads at length his stance on being a sponsor of a ticket broker. There have been dozens of debates about this. You haven’t read them, so you can’t judge how sick some of us might be of this debate. Elvis feels one way, and it is that way. The debate has already happened. My comment had absolutely nothing to do with you, except that you started the debate over again. Anyone could have posted it.

4. My comment about the Canadian tickets was an attempt to point out that the Canadian dollar is significantly stronger than it was last tour against the US dollar. More to the point, many Americans (myself included) are finding it too expensive to travel abroad to see U2 this tour, as the dollar is so weak against foreign currency. I traveled to Hamilton last tour and thought the comment had EVERYTHING to do with the thread. Just because you don’t see the connection doesn’t make it so. Again, I didn’t say anything…but also a trivial thread started by you, but it was my choice to respond.

5. You never understood my perspective on the Ebay situation. My point is simply this. U2 owes no one anything. No one has a God given entitlement to U2 tickets, or anything in general. My concern was, and continues to be the language that frames the scalping/resale debate. I argue not the legality or morality of reselling tickets, but U2 fans saying things like “I was screwed” and “Ebay sucks”. It is a worldview that I don’t subscribe to. I make the good things, and the bad things happen in my life…not some outside force. I feel that it is the very spirit of the band in question, and that most of the fans on this board that speak in this way don’t understand the band at all. I am tired of reading about people being sorry for themselves. The world is not fair, and neither is an U2 onsale. I secured 12 tickets, all GA’s, for 6 different shows through legal means. It wasn’t easy, but I did it. I care that much, but I don’t expect U2 to hand me anything on a silver platter. U2 is not about entitlement.


Regarding your perception of me, you are wrong and off base. I am as exited about the tour as I can be. I met my wife at a U2 show. We combined to see over 30 shows on the last tour. I have GA’s for opening nights in San Diego. Your limited viewing of my most recent posts does not give you the proper perspective to judge my motives or my general attitude. I refuse to be the bubbly “oh my god” U2 fan, as I have been a fan way too long for that. Everything doesn’t need a glossy U2 icing on it. Many of us use Interference for interaction with other fans that are able to see past the shiny lights and discuss and debate some deeper concepts. If you want the “yeah!!! I’m so excited!!!!” kind of stuff, use Zootopia.

In closing, I will not view your posts again so please don’t feel that I will rain any more on your parade. I would PM this but you do not receive them and it is regret that I subject other readers to this as I do not wish to debate you in public and/or bump your posts. This is not a personal attack on you, or your threads. I would however suggest that you stop starting what seems to be 5 or 6 threads a day about not very significant points. Use other threads to share your comments, we don’t all have to read about them and sift through them to get to other threads. If you have something that is real worth saying, by all means say it…but not every thought that comes to your head has to be a thread starter.

If you feel that any of this is unfair, I apologize, as this is an imperfect way of communication. You and I will have to agree to steer clear of each other. But your perspective is a minority one, and one that I will not adhere to or self censor because of. Enjoy the tour.

Please do not respond in here, we have both had our say in public, email me at cburke737@comcast.net if you have anything else to say. I will no longer respond to you in the forum.
 
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I went to an internet thread and a fight broke out -- wow. Another virtual first.

Here's my answer to your stats question:

1. If you have written letters to rich community members named Warren Buffett, a friend of Bono's, that lives in Omaha.

2. If you were a total dork in 1992 and organized a petition to bring U2 to your town of Omaha and sent six ridiculous binders to key U2 managment.

3. If you don't get upset and remain calm at your TM failure the day of the general sale.

4. If you log in to TM six hours later on a whim and try for 1 GA, then another; your chances are 100% of getting two GAs for Omaha.

All the positive karma from 1,2, and 3 adds up to 100% statistical probablity that you can, and will, get GA tickets.

However, one must factor that these conditions will never ever be replicated again, so the REAL answer is that you have just a bit more of a snowball's chance in hell of getting GA tickets to any U2 show.
 
cmb737 said:
Please do not respond in here, we have both had our say in public, email me at cburke737@comcast.net if you have anything else to say. I will no longer respond to you in the forum.

I've been reading the posts between you two lately and I think this would be wise.
 
A couple things and then we can be done with this. And I will post in this thread as I started it and I have the right to finish it. Thank you in advance, Sicy, for letting me post my final thoughts. I will also continue to post whatever thoughts that come to mind that I want to discuss with other U2 fans. After all, this is a public forum and while you may dislike 'sifting' through what you consider to be irrelevant posts, some people actually find some of the things I post to have merit (see my MSG thread that got over 6500 views). Personally, I'd also rather skip the 'What's the bands best makeout song' myself, as that is not my bag. But I would never tell someone not to post that sort of thing, that's just not the way democracy works.

You're right, U2 is not about entitlement, I never said it was (yet another mischaracterization of my remarks), however I do believe that every U2 fan IS entitled to a fair OPPORTUNITY to get tickets. If, given the fair opportunity, they cannot get tickets, well, then it is a matter of 'survival of the fittest', but at least they had a valid shot. However, when there are corrupt practices in place that do not provide a level playing field, then there is a problem that cannot be denied or rationalized any way you slice it. This does not only apply to U2 tickets, but also to such other matters as civil rights, poverty, etc. I am simply an advocate of the concept of the level playing field and those who champion its merits. The pink banner at the top of this forum is not about fair opportunity and is an insult to every passionate U2 fan who could not get a ticket this tour. Interest in the band, and the scope of this forum will always outweigh any chance of fighting for its removal. Not only do fans have to pay to use basic features of this site (i.e. your inability to send me a PM because I choose not to pay), but there seems to be editorial control over what links can and cannot be posted that may pose a competitive threat to the site owner. What kind of forum devoted to a band preaching fairness and equality would not provide those same things to its members? I find it ironic at best, and fraudulent at worst. But I know I can't change that by myself, because I am a pragmatist and understand that someone, somewhere is making a buck with this site and that buck is considered more important than ethical integrity. But while I don't agree with it, there is useful information on the boards here, so it is my choice to visit, ethical differences aside. I haven't read any of Elvis' posts regarding his position on the matter, I can only judge by what I see. We all make choices when we come here. I don't necessaryliy like it, but that's the way it is.

I, personally, don't like sifting through posts that I feel are fluffy either, such as the 'What is U2's Bohemian Rhapsody?' thread, or 'What is the bands best makeout song?' thread. But you know what, I don't lambaste those people for having those interests. Are they my interests? No. Are they valid interests? Sure they are, that's what music fans do, they ask silly questions because it's fun to do, they like to laugh and have fun with things. If you don't want to read anything but dry analytical posts about the technical merits of a lyric or whatever is the opposite of what you dislike, suggest a forum just for that. Change the channel, if you will. I won't complain if you do. Everyone here has a right to post questions regarding anything pertaining to the band. Anything from 'How's Edge's daughter doing?' to 'What color were his shoelaces?' I'm sure censorship exists, but to tell someone not to say something is a pretty bold thing to do, especially for the sake of personal convenience.

cmb, I don't have any personal issues with you, I really don't. Like you said, I don't even know you. It's obvious we have different points of view and that's what makes the world go round. I guess what I'd ask of you is for a little respect and to not insinuate that someone is not as good as another because they hold a different point of view that you may consider 'beneath' you or not worthy of your time. If I have crossed that line, I sincerely apologize, it was never my intention.

We can be civil, of course! I'm not here to make an enemy, but to get to know what makes others tick. And I think we can say, of eachother, that we've done that fairly well.

See you on the road, my friend. If I see you at a show, I'd certainly buy you a beer or whatever your flavor is.
 
u2wedge said:
See you on the road, my friend. If I see you at a show, I'd certainly buy you a beer or whatever your flavor is.

Strawberry, do they have strawberry beer? Or perhaps elderberry.

Wedge, let's hold each other to the standard you proposed. Perhaps we can both allow Bono the last words:

"You don't have to put up a fight, you don't have to always be right...let me take some of the punches, for you tonight."

Cheers mate, okay, so strawberry beer doesn't work. Note to self. :wink:
 
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cmb737 said:

Wedge, let's hold each other to the standard you proposed. Perhaps we can both allow Bono the last words:

"You don't have to put up a fight, you don't have to always be right...let me take some of the punches, for you tonight."

Cheers mate, okay, so strawberry beer doesn't work. Note to self. :wink:

Well said.

btw, I'm looking forward to your report from the tour opener.

And thanks cmb, for a spirited debate. We must both have some of that Irish stubborness in us.
 
If you're online with a good connection right when the sale starts in your area (excluding the aformentioned Chicago, LA, NY, Philli and Boston) you can easily get them it seems.
 
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