This won't happen, but...
I agree with Beal, but here's to hoping U2 decide to actually release a commercial single in the U.S. for the 3rd leg AND because their music is just SOOOO much better than what does make it big on U.S. radio.
First, I believe COBL will be another modest radio hit, ala Sometimes. There are 4 formats for Rock Radio in the U.S. now: Rock, Active Rock, Triple A Rock, and Alternative Rock. COBL has moved up very fast on the Rock Chart, going from 47 to 20 is 11 days. After watching this chart since January, I can tell you that is a very unusual jump. Here is the chart as it stands updated just an hour ago:
Mainstream Rock
Mediabase - All Stations
Past 7 Days - by Overall Rank
Currents And Recurrents Currents Only
Charts Menu | Taking Off | Jump!
LW: Jun 3 - Jun 9 TW: Jun 10 - Jun 16 Updated: Fri Jun 17 12:54 PM PST
Rank Mediabase Sortable Stats™ - Click any Blue Header Spins Aud.
/mill
lw TW Artist Title TW lw Move
1 1 AUDIOSLAVE Be Yourself 735 770 -35 4.109
2 2 FOO FIGHTERS Best of You 694 639 55 3.654
3 3 SEETHER Remedy 675 633 42 3.246
4 4 GREEN DAY Holiday 599 620 -21 3.511
5 5 ROBERT PLANT Shine It All Around 533 522 11 2.621
8 6 STAIND Right Here 512 462 50 2.191
6 7 GREEN DAY Boulevard of Broken ... 509 495 14 2.576
9 8 NINE INCH NAILS The Hand That Feeds 461 444 17 2.246
11 9 THEORY OF A DEADMAN No Surprise 449 434 15 1.882
10 10 3 DOORS DOWN Behind Those Eyes 441 439 2 1.882
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7 11 VELVET REVOLVER Fall To Pieces 427 484 -57 2.197
12 12 MUDVAYNE Happy? 333 316 17 1.744
13 13 SYSTEM OF A DOWN B.Y.O.B. 329 281 48 1.436
15 14 AUDIOSLAVE Your Time Has Come 282 245 37 1.001
14 15 NO ADDRESS When I'm Gone (Sadie... 245 281 -36 0.725
16 16 PAPA ROACH Take Me 186 193 -7 0.922
17 17 DARK NEW DAY Brother 180 179 1 0.575
18 18 OFFSPRING Can't Repeat 177 174 3 0.618
22 19 CROSSFADE Colors 164 128 36 0.420
26 20 U2 City of Blinding Lig... 161 87 74 0.942
mediabase shows you the radio stations they cover, and the "jump" and "taking off" features show that COBL is by far the hottest song on Mainstream Rock. Here are those charts:
7 Day
Jump! Mainstream Rock
Mediabase - All Stations
Past 7 Days
Jump! Menu | 7-Day Chart | Taking Off
LW: Jun 3 - Jun 9 TW: Jun 10 - Jun 16 Updated: Fri Jun 17 12:54 PM PST
Artist Title Move Stations
Playing Format Reports
U2 City of Blinding Lights +60 12 Leaders Starters
FOO FIGHTERS Best of You +50 26 Leaders Starters
SYSTEM OF A DOWN B.Y.O.B. +46 19 Leaders Starters
SEETHER Remedy +37 26 Leaders Starters
STAIND Right Here +31 25 Leaders Starters
CROSSFADE Colors +31 15 Leaders Starters
AUDIOSLAVE Your Time Has Come +26 22 Leaders Starters
NINE INCH NAILS The Hand That Feeds +21 22 Leaders Starters
VELVET REVOLVER Come On, Come In +19 8 Leaders Starters
WEEZER Beverly Hills +16 7 Leaders Starters
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MUDVAYNE Happy? +16 17 Leaders Starters
GODSMACK Faceless +15 1 Leaders Starters
10 YEARS Wasteland +14 10 Leaders Starters
INCUBUS Make A Move +13 8 Leaders Starters
MADSIDE Enemy +12 3 Leaders Starters
COLDPLAY Speed of Sound +12 3 Leaders Starters
Here are the "Leaders" and "Starters" for COBL
7 Day
Format
Leaders
Interscope U2
City of Blinding Lights
by Spins This Week
Show Format Starters | 7-Day Chart | Taking Off | Jump!
LW: Jun 3 - Jun 9 TW: Jun 10 - Jun 16 Updated: Fri Jun 17 12:54 PM PST
Station Market Format Spins by daypart Aud/Mill
TW lw +/- ovn am mid pm eve
WBBB-FM Raleigh Mainstream Rock 21 19 2 6 0 6 6 3 0.112
WMMR-FM Philadelphia Mainstream Rock 19 17 2 6 1 4 3 5 0.268
WZZO-FM Allentown Mainstream Rock 18 14 4 6 2 3 0 7 0.092
WRCQ-FM Fayetteville, NC Mainstream Rock 17 2 15 4 1 5 2 5 0.023
KDKB-FM Phoenix Mainstream Rock 15 15 0 6 1 5 3 0 0.143
WHJY-FM Providence Mainstream Rock 15 6 9 7 0 0 1 7 0.072
WHEB-FM Portsmouth, NH Mainstream Rock 12 4 8 6 0 0 0 6 0.008
WDHA-FM Morristown, NJ Mainstream Rock 10 1 9 4 2 1 2 1 0.101
WBZT-FM Greenville, SC Mainstream Rock 9 0 9 7 0 0 0 2 0.007
WRQK-FM Canton, OH Mainstream Rock 7 3 4 4 0 0 2 1 0.013
7 Day
Format
Starters
Interscope U2
City of Blinding Lights
by Spins This Week
Show Format Leaders | 7-Day Chart | Taking Off | Jump!
LW: Jun 3 - Jun 9 TW: Jun 10 - Jun 16 Updated: Fri Jun 17 12:54 PM PST
Station Market Format Spins by daypart Aud/Mill
TW lw +/- ovn am mid pm eve
WBZT-FM Greenville, SC Mainstream Rock 9 0 9 7 0 0 0 2 0.007
WWDG-FM Syracuse Mainstream Rock 4 0 4 1 0 1 1 1 0.010
WONE-FM Akron Mainstream Rock 3 0 3 1 0 1 0 1 0.014
KLAQ-FM El Paso Mainstream Rock 2 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0.009
WAPL-FM Appleton Mainstream Rock 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0.002
The "taking off" chart tells a similar story. Just this afternoon, COBL debuted in the Top 20 on Triple A radio. It is also the hottest song on that format.
7 Day
Charts AAA Rock
Mediabase - All Stations
Past 7 Days - by Overall Rank
Currents And Recurrents Currents Only
Charts Menu | Taking Off | Jump!
LW: Jun 3 - Jun 9 TW: Jun 10 - Jun 16 Updated: Fri Jun 17 12:54 PM PST
Rank Mediabase Sortable Stats™ - Click any Blue Header Spins Aud./mill
lw TW Artist Title TW lw Move
1 1 COLDPLAY Speed of Sound 632 670 -38 3.021
2 2 DAVE MATTHEWS BAND American Baby 496 532 -36 2.346
3 3 SNOW PATROL Chocolate 479 465 14 1.937
6 4 JACK JOHNSON Good People 446 395 51 2.045
5 5 WALLFLOWERS Beautiful Side Of So... 432 434 -2 1.514
4 6 U2 Sometimes You Can't ... 381 465 -84 1.748
10 7 KEANE Everybody's Changing 298 289 9 1.010
9 8 RINGSIDE Tired of Being Sorry... 271 292 -21 1.013
11 9 AUDIOSLAVE Be Yourself 266 269 -3 1.076
16 10 LOW MILLIONS Statue 262 244 18 0.744
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15 11 KYLE RIABKO What Did I Get Mysel... 259 247 12 0.844
12 12 JASON MRAZ Wordplay 258 262 -4 0.793
8 13 ROBERT PLANT Shine It All Around 252 295 -43 1.157
14 14 BLUE MERLE Burning In The Sun 238 252 -14 1.217
7 15 JACK JOHNSON Sitting, Waiting, Wi... 235 313 -78 1.321
19 16 KATHLEEN EDWARDS Back To Me 222 209 13 0.831
22 17 MIKE DOUGHTY Looking At The World... 207 180 27 0.742
31 18 U2 City of Blinding Lig... 206 135 71 1.018
The reason I show this is because this is the fastest "rise" of the 3 2005 singles, so far, off of HTDAAB. However, it's taken off by itself, with no commercial release and to this point, no video. This is what happens to U2 singles that aren't released in the U.S. Usually, the video kicks things off. Then, Rock radio picks up the song. On those formats, the songs often reach #1, and then begin to fall. Now ABOY was a hard enough rocker to get significant airplay on all 4 formats, which is why it made it to #6 on Billboard's Modern Rock (Alternative format) and Mainstream Rock (Active Rock & Rock). Triple A seems to go into a void, although there are over 50 stations monitored by mediabase covering the whole U.S.
On the strength of it's performance on all 4 rock formats, ABOY did make it to 101 on Billboards Hot 100 (or 125, whatever you want to call it). However, the song did not cross over to Pop Formats and didn't do much on Adult Top 40, so it never really did anything according to Billboard.
Sometimes was another beautiful ballad by our boys but once again, it didn't "fit" nicely into any particular format beside Triple A. For a brief time, it was gaining airplay on 3 of the 4 Top Rock Formats, resulting in it getting to 29 on BB's Modern Rock. Then the song was picked up by Adult Top 40 (Hot AC), and it looked like it was destined to break through on Billboard. It spent 2 weeks at 109 on the BB Hot 125 and then jumped to 99. That's when Alternative (BB's Modern Rock) dropped the song. Hot AC picked up the slack, as well as a start on Pop radio (made it to 87 on BB), which brought Sometimes back onto the Hot 100 briefly at 97. The song went on to spend many weeks at #1 on Triple A rock (doesn't help BB at all) and many weeks at 15 on Adult Radio, which was reflected on BB.
What I'm getting at is that with no official release/promotion, radio picks up singles for airplay only at their discretion. Rock Formats still like U2 and play their songs a lot...and if the song creates enough of a buzz, then Adult Top 40 and maybe Pop Radio will pick it up. The result, though, is that the songs peak at very different times on the different formats, making it difficult for any one song to break out big on Billboard.
This is where U2 really messes up with respect to hit singles being able to help with album sales. The audiences that end up hearing their singles, a lot, are the ones who are the most likely to already have the album. Also, given U2's lack of singles strategy in the U.S., the Rock formats are more likely to try to be "first to market" with what they 1) think will be the next single, or 2) what they think sounds good on radio & makes them unique. For example, COBL was heavily played in the Northeast just a month after Sometimes showed up on the charts. Sirius Satellite had Fast Cars in their Moderate Rotation for 4 weeks back in Feb/March, and another Satellite station had OOTS in Heavy Rotation for about a month, too. These are songs that have potential to gain new audiences, but they are restricted to the formats that traditionally play to U2 audiences, anyway. It's a no-win situation.
Just to further illustrate this format-only issue in the U.S., here are some Year to Date Charts showing the most played songs of 2005 on certain formats:
Year to Date
(Updated Weekly)
Charts by Format
Ranked by Total Plays Mainstream Rock
by Total Spins
Currents & Recurrents
Mediabase - All Stations
Home | Charts Menu
January, 2005 through June, 2005
Rank Artist Title Total
Spins Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
1 GREEN DAY Boulevard of Broken Dreams 18975 725 2625 3399 4427 4146 3653
2 VELVET REVOLVER Fall To Pieces 13818 698 2204 2343 2579 2734 3260
3 SHINEDOWN Burning Bright 11273 316 1169 1827 2388 2732 2841
4 AUDIOSLAVE Be Yourself 9654 1092 3358 3494 1710 0 0
5 THREE DAYS GRACE Home 8881 233 959 1491 2097 2063 2038
6 3 DOORS DOWN Let Me Go 8626 284 872 1061 2101 2157 2151
7 MOTLEY CRUE If I Die Tomorrow 8255 78 284 817 1940 2542 2594
8 JET Cold Hard Bitch 7431 380 1240 1437 1544 1379 1451
9 ROBERT PLANT Shine It All Around 7200 767 2385 2251 1713 84 0
10 U2 Vertigo 6980 261 784 899 1143 1381 2512
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11 THREE DAYS GRACE Just Like You 6972 363 1101 1295 1257 1298 1658
12 BREAKING BENJAMIN So Cold 6737 317 902 1127 1328 1229 1834
13 VELVET REVOLVER Dirty Little Thing 6709 96 490 1122 1854 1677 1470
14 PAPA ROACH Scars 6594 186 713 952 1451 1672 1620
15 THEORY OF A DEADMAN No Surprise 6530 616 1854 1492 1415 911 242
16 BREAKING BENJAMIN Sooner Or Later 6414 342 1238 1687 1463 1015 669
17 PAPA ROACH Getting Away With Murder 6192 225 774 800 1052 1285 2056
18 NICKELBACK Figured You Out 5990 340 1097 1105 1126 1055 1267
19 CROSSFADE Cold 5806 333 985 1016 1067 998 1407
20 VELVET REVOLVER Slither 5705 258 819 965 1116 1147 1400
21 BILLY IDOL Scream 5588 133 759 1390 1557 1162 587
22 GREEN DAY Holiday 5534 883 2373 1678 515 42 43
23 U2 All Because of You 5227 65 249 567 1313 1725 1308
Year to Date
(Updated Weekly)
Charts by Format
Ranked by Total Plays AAA Rock
by Total Spins
Currents & Recurrents
Mediabase - All Stations
Home | Charts Menu
January, 2005 through June, 2005
Rank Artist Title Total
Spins Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
1 JACK JOHNSON Sitting, Waiting, Wishing 11306 456 1778 2543 2789 2169 1571
2 U2 Sometimes You Can't Make It... 8835 658 2495 2667 2151 735 129
3 GREEN DAY Boulevard of Broken Dreams 8645 231 797 1221 1714 2143 2539
4 BLUE MERLE Burning In The Sun 8155 363 1371 1913 2026 1518 964
5 DAVE MATTHEWS BAND American Baby 7020 772 2629 2552 1067 0 0
6 JET Look What You've Done 6903 213 693 1069 1575 1710 1643
7 TORI AMOS Sleeps With Butterflies 6890 174 836 1433 1913 1475 1059
8 SNOW PATROL Chocolate 6506 667 1740 1530 1386 840 343
9 MADELEINE PEYROUX Don't Wait Too Long 6230 236 828 1201 1617 1276 1072
10 MOBY Beautiful 5958 378 1475 1643 1594 772 96
11 KEANE Somewhere Only We Know 5887 243 775 713 956 1391 1809
12 LOW MILLIONS Eleanor 5496 105 404 739 1029 1331 1888
13 MARC BROUSSARD Home 5437 172 704 1042 1364 1188 967
14 U2 All Because of You 5352 94 338 337 801 1722 2060
15 LENNY KRAVITZ Lady 5328 133 507 683 1038 1368 1599
16 COLLECTIVE SOUL Better Now 5232 210 995 1267 1495 958 307
17 HOWIE DAY Collide 5106 217 712 772 1121 1139 1145
18 JOHN BUTLER TRIO Zebra 5010 315 1116 1218 1221 796 344
19 COLDPLAY Speed of Sound 4919 959 2883 1077 0 0 0
20 KEANE Everybody's Changing 4691 413 1433 1352 1079 387 27
21 JOSS STONE Right To Be Wrong 4458 99 507 960 1252 935 705
22 ANNA NALICK Breathe (2AM) 4297 165 585 926 1106 793 722
23 ROBERT PLANT Shine It All Around 4228 417 1459 1378 955 19 0
24 RAY LAMONTAGNE Trouble 4173 145 430 490 714 975 1419
25 BECK E Pro 4094 139 798 1133 1240 784 0
26 JOHN MAYER Daughters 4057 83 306 371 608 1056 1633
27 WALLFLOWERS Beautiful Side Of Somewhere 3942 620 1691 1362 269 0 0
28 U2 Vertigo 3848 147 434 523 717 761 1266
If you look at FMBOQ's retail and consultant charts, what I've described IS U2's singles strategy in the U.S. For example, Sometimes was "made available for airplay" (i.e., got explicit permission and a promo single) in late January, while ABOY was the U.S. single at the time and had been released to all 4 rock formats. A month later, Sometimes was finally released for airplay on all the Rock formats, and then still 3 weeks later, it was released for Airplay on Adult Top 40. I never saw these supposed release dates for Pop Radio, but the song was picked up by enough stations to make it onto some playlists and charts.
With the commercial release of Vertigo, it became available for all formats at roughly the same time and it made a lot of news due to it's 200,000+ downloads. That was enough publicity to get the song onto rotation on every format that it could fit onto, and we all know the song could have done much better on the BB Hot 125 - seemingly everyone's standard - had downloads counted towards their chart calculations. What U2 did, though, is really fundamentally change the BB Hot 125, as once downloads were counted as any other CD single sale, we started seeing singles debuting high on the BB Hot 100, in some cases with very little airplay, and then fall off. However, that creates quite a buzz about a song. Take Speed of Sound for instance. It rode the strength of some 49,000 downloads when it was commercially released, which resulted in a #8 debut on the Hot 100. It fell steadily for a while, with enough downloads to keep it on the Hot 100. Now, the Coldplay marketing machine at full-throttle, the song is gaining airplay and STILL has a healthy number of downloads to cause it to rise on BB. That is today's recipe for success, IMO.
Finally, to the point. In the U.S., we didn't get Fast Cars, and I personally think the song is one of the best from HTDAAB. OOTS is a radio-friendly single. It's not like their saving Fast Cars for another album...and Are You gonna Wait forever has already been released as a b-side outside of the U.S. If U2 wants a "smash hit" in the U.S., they need to release OOTS, with perhaps Fast Cars and Are you gonna wait.. as b-sides. Or come up with better b-sides, or a DVD single, whatever. Release it commercially. At the same time, this 3 or 4 song single needs to be available for download. Publicize it...get the video and airplay going some 3 weeks in advance...then release it for sale. Do this in early August. OOTS A side, with Fast Cars, AYGWF, and a live version of OOTS. Easily a Top 40 hit IMO.
Same formula for early November. Release Miracle Drug in the same fasion, with Mercy, Smile, and maybe a live version as well. Top 20 hit IMO. Singles sales or download sales are irrelevant, but it would get good music on the radio and help album sales. I just don't understand why U2 can't do something like this...it's not like it takes a lot of work or any more studio time. Sadly, I don't think they'll every release singles in the U.S. unless it's a lead-off. What a shame.
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