Wait until next week
ybird3k said:
doesnt seem much point having a HITS thread anymore, as it doesnt look like HTDAAB will be making the top50 for some time.
You may be right, but I really think that the album drop over the last two weeks in the U.S. is due in part to 1) U2 finishing up in Seattle & then heading to Canada, and 2) U2 taking about a 1-week break. The industry may be down across the board, but that may make it even easier for U2 to bounce back onto the charts once the tour starts hitting major markets. So here is what we have left on the 1st leg:
United States Of America (1 - 20) next
Thu, 05/12/05
07:30 PM U2
United Center
Chicago, IL Find Tickets
Sat, 05/14/05
07:30 PM U2
Wachovia Center
Philadelphia, PA Find Tickets
Tue, 05/17/05
07:30 PM U2
Continental Arena
East Rutherford, NJ Find Tickets
Wed, 05/18/05
07:30 PM U2
Continental Arena
East Rutherford, NJ Find Tickets
Sat, 05/21/05
08:00 PM U2
Madison Square Garden
New York, NY Find Tickets
Sun, 05/22/05
07:30 PM U2
Wachovia Center
Philadelphia, PA Find Tickets
Tue, 05/24/05
07:30 PM U2
Fleetcenter
Boston, MA Find Tickets
Thu, 05/26/05
07:30 PM U2
Fleetcenter
Boston, MA Find Tickets
Sat, 05/28/05
07:30 PM U2
Fleetcenter
Boston, MA Find Tickets
When the Top 25 to 75 albums are separated by very few sales, it doesn't take much to push the album up a bit or down a lot. 4 shows in Chicago might result in U2 selling an additional 3000 albums this week in that market...which could be as many as 15 chart positions. Follow up Chicago with Philly, NY/NJ, and Boston, and I think we should see a similar bounce for the following two weeks. In short, I predict the album will be at 59 on BB tomorrow (for last week), but then I expect a run of 43-39-35-40 over the next 4 weeks.
After that, COBL will have to carry the album in the U.S., and I don't have a good feel for what it can do on radio. It sure seems to have that "magic" live, but that happens to many of U2's songs as they evolve through a tour. I think the R.O.W. sales over the summer will make up for the U.S. drop and the album should stay in the Top 40 on the Global chart for a while. I just hope that U2 somehow changes direction after the 1st leg and continues to release singles - for radio and download and for sale - in the U.S. If COBL is it until U2 returns to Chicago on September 20, then HTDAAB will indeed fall a lot on the BB Hot 200. For once I'd like Bono to follow through on one of his bold album predictions..."We've got 11 singles on this album" being one of his early statements about the Bomb. Well, then release OOTS & Miracle Drug (made for Pop radio IMO), A man and a woman (AC), & LPOE & Crumbs (Rock Format). Release Fast Cars on an EP, as it's a catchy, edgy song that would also do well on radio. Yeah, this is radical, but I agree with people who feel that the Bomb is more of a collection of great songs rather than a flowing album. So, I say get those songs on the radio.
P.S. With a tour set up to last another 12 months potentially, U2 may end up releasing 3 more singles after COBL, just not as fast as I would like and for different reasons, too. Either way, end of rant. I promise to try not to write any more posts about U2 singles, strategies, marketing (lack of), etc. Chart watching is fun and interesting, but I got to see them live last Friday, and that is what it's really all about.