Some Sales Information for Nov. 16, 2004

[doctorwho]

Sadly I no longer have access to SoundScan data. I haven't heard from my source in ages.

Fortunately, we have other places to get chart data. HitsDailyDouble and SoundScan usually differ in their exact amounts sold in a give week, but in lieu of SoundScan data, Hits figures are very close.

Here are the Hits' numbers for the Top 10 from this past week, where Eminem debuted on top.

TW/ LW / artist / album / sales / % change

1. / -- / EMINEM / ENCORE / 737,250 / --
2. / -- / SHANIA TWAIN / GREATEST HITS / 530,333 / --
3. / -- / TOBY KEITH / GREATEST HITS 2 / 433,449 / --
4. / -- / BRITNEY SPEARS / GREATEST HITS:MY PREROGATIVE / 252,381 / --
5. / 1 / VARIOUS / NOW THAT WHAT I CALL MUSIC! VOL. 17 / 232,389 / -43%
6. / -- / FABOLOUS ATLANTIC / REAL TALK / 187,471 / --
7. / -- / JA RULE / R.U.L.E. / 169,215 / --
8. / 4 / USHER / CONFESSIONS / 104,414 / -5%
9. / 3 / NELLY / SUIT / 101,697 / -13%
10. / 6 / GEORGE STRAIT / 50 #1'S / 98,599 / +6%

Eminem's last album debuted with 1,328,000 copies sold, so this is a rather sharp decline for him, clearly reflecting the lack of strength of his lead of single, "Just Lose It". While that was a top 10 hit in the U.S. (peaking at #6), after just 8 weeks it is already falling down the charts, currently at #15. U2's "Vertigo" hasn't hit such lofty heights, but at least it is gaining in popularity. With the exception of "Discotheque", typically U2's songs slowly rise up the charts. This contrasts U2's albums, which tend to debut high and then drop.

One interesting observation is that all of top 10 releases had sales of nearly 100,000 copies or greater. Years ago, this was standard. Given that the holiday season is rapidly approaching, these types of sales will be observed through New Years. The week before Christmas, often the top 35 releases have sales of 100,000 copies or more! Still, the stronger sales in early November does suggest two things: (1) that the music industry is recovering and (2) holiday sales are starting.

U2 faces considerable competition next week. As we all may recall, ATYCLB sold 428,000 copies its first week in the U.S. This was the best first week sales for U2 in the SoundScan era. The album went on to sell 4.17 million copies and win a mind-boggling 7 Grammy awards.

Besides facing competition from the artists listed above, U2 also have to face not one, not two but three American Idols! These artists should not be dismissed lightly - especially given that an American Idol holiday show will be on TV next week, featuring all 3 winners to date. Clay Aiken will then have his own show shortly thereafter! Ruben Studdard, the season two winner, sold an amazing 417,000 copies of his first album the first week. It has gone on to sell 1.72 million copies to date (rapidly approaching the Double Platinum mark). Therefore, he is a threat against U2. Fantasia, the season three winner, releases her debut album next week. Clay Aiken's debut album (Clay was runner-up in season two), sold an amazing 617,000 copies its first week (2.58 million total). This new release from Aiken is a Christmas album. Given the time of year and the extra push from his TV special, this could mean big sales.

Other competition comes from Norah Jones, whose album sold over 1 million copies its first week earlier this year. Creed is also releasing an album, however, given the band has disbanded, they are no longer a real threat. Of course, let's not forget Destiny's Child. Their last album sold 663,000 copies its first week (4.14 million total). Fortunately, their album comes out a week before U2's.

Still, it'll be interesting to see if U2 can hold off the American Idol kids to debut at #1. They benefit from having Eminem's and Destiny's Child's albums already out, giving some breathing room for U2.

Watching the charts on the 29th and 30th will be interesting. Will the online leak hurt sales? Will the online or radio streams hurt sales? Or will all of this increase demand? Can U2 break their own SoundScan era record? Can U2 once again have a #1 album?

 

[womanfish]

It will be fun to watch. Remember as well that the decrease in Eminems numbers also came from the fact that the album only had 4 or 5 days of sales to tally those numbers, not a full week. So if he had, had a full week, a million would not be out of the question. Also, Destiny's album sales got all split up as well. As you can see they debuted (on the Hits chart) at #24! with only around 56,000 in sales. But they only had anywhere from 1 to 3 days to get this amount depending on when the stores put out the disc. I think it may also reflect that this won't be as a big of a hit as we once thought.

I'm not too worried about the American Idols. Only Clay poses the real threat because he is loved by young giggly girls and middle aged and older giggly ladies alike. Hopefully because it's a Christmas album, it will have softer sales, but if not, it definitely could spell trouble.

Good luck to U2. We only have about a week and a half to see how it all plays out!

 

[doctorwho]

Good point Womanfish! I forgot that Eminem's album had a shorter time to collect sales compared to his other albums. That said, I would imagine that most of his fans would rush to buy the album on the first 2 days anyway (especially as they were weekend days). As such, I'm not really sure he'd see an increase of 300,000 copies over those last 2-3 days to clear a million, nor the 600,000+ copies he'd need to slightly beat the first week sales of his last CD. But I could be wrong.

In contrast, I'm thinking the bulk of Destiny's Child's sales will be reflected this week. However, I concur, the lower sales of the album so far *could* indicate that this won't me a monster first week seller. We'll know in a few days.

Regardless, with those two bing albums out of the way (relatively speaking), I still say Norah Jones and the American Idol kids present the biggist threat to U2 being #1.

HTDAAB may set yet another record for sales for U2, yet still not hit #1. Could be interesting.

 

[womanfish]

Well doctorwho, this article from Hits may just answer your doubts about Eminem. Good thing his album got moved up, that's all i can say.


Clay, Snoop Also Debut in a Crowded Field

November 17, 2004
After a 737k three-day #1 performance, what’ll Eminem do for an Encore?

At this point, it looks like he’ll sell even more records this week. According to early reports from national accounts, Encore (Shady/Interscope) should move another 750k or so this week. Is 800k out of the question? We’ll have to wait and see, but at any rate, the album will have done upwards of 1.5 million in its first 10 days and is a lock for a second week at #1

Meanwhile, Destiny’s Child’s Destiny Fulfilled (Columbia) looked a little soft over the weekend and charted yesterday at #24 on 53k in sales after some retailers broke its scheduled street date of 11/15, but the album has bounced back in a big way. Indeed, early reports indicate it should sell over 400k for the week and could potentially have a shot at 500k. That’ll do for #2.

And then there’s Lil’ Jon and the Eastside Boyz’ Crunk Juice (TVT), which came on the chart yesterday at #36 on almost 35k in sales following that wacky street-date-breakin’ weekend. That was just a taste, apparently, as projections now have the album selling over 350k this week. That should be good for another skit on Chapelle’s Show, as well as the #3 slot on next week’s chart.

Hitting the streets yesterday, Clay Aiken’s Merry Christmas with Love (RCA/RMG) should sell well over 200k for the week, and could trend up, depending on whether all the “Claymates” came out on the first day, which saw huge sales in Aiken’s native North Carolina. Will this one grow as we approach Christmas?

 

[anitram]

I can't believe there are 2.58 million desperate housewives who have forced Clay Aiken on the rest of us. For shame!

 

[mikeuk]

According to Hits Daily.... Eminem has sold more than 530k copies, with only 53.68% of sales yet logged ! Therefore probably heading for close to 1m - so number 1 for our boys the week after will probably take sales of around 600k

Mike

 

[MadelynIris]

According to Hits Daily.... Eminem has sold more than 530k copies, with only 53.68% of sales yet logged ! Therefore probably heading for close to 1m - so number 1 for our boys the week after will probably take sales of around 600k[/qoute]

Yikes.

Maybe, maybe... 600k?

 

[doctorwho]

With Eminem having sold 1.5M+ albums in 2 weeks, one could *hope* things will slow down a bit for him.

However...

'Tis the start of the holiday season. CD's, even if they are slowly becoming outdated, are still great to have and make fantastic gifts (stocking stuffers). So I can see Eminem going strong for another week - and maybe through the holidays.

Of course, if this works for Eminem, it could also work for U2.

If the hype is real - and I hope it is - we might very well be looking at a record first week for U2. Will it be enough for U2 to debut at #1? If U2 hit this magical "million sold in one week" mark, definitely yes! But I still think 400,000-500,000 is a more realistic number. This is a very strong first week, but not enough for #1. Still, with the holidays, HTDAAB may continue to have strong weeks through December.

I guess we'll know come next Monday/Tuesday.

 

[mikeuk]

Doc

I should have already said this, but good to have you back here - my previous handle here was mike63 (so many more posts than 150 +)!

I do stick by my prediction on this forum that `Bomb' will sell more than 2 million in it's first week, and I expect 650,000 (or more) to come from US sales - probably meaning a number 1 album.

Mike

 

[ssviland]

With the several different releases of HTDAAB, are they tabulated seperately? Of course, the sale of the standard US release will probably dwarf the Special Edition and DVD edition, but, for the charts, do they count as one?
I remember a Paul McCartney album that was released in two formats and both charted, although one was way down the chart.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

All the editions will probably count as the same version I think....they're labeled exactly the same (CD version and CD/DVD version)....so I'm confident they will count towards the same chart placing.

 

[womanfish]

All the editions will probably count as the same version I think....they're labeled exactly the same (CD version and CD/DVD version)....so I'm confident they will count towards the same chart placing.

This is not true. look at the barcodes. They are numbered
reg. version - ##########00
collecters - ##########01
CD/DVD - ##########02

 

[victor_f]

eminem is counting dirty and clean version in only one?

 

[kakvox]

I think I'll go buy another album to give the boys a little push.

 

[STING2]

This is not true. look at the barcodes. They are numbered
reg. version - ##########00
collecters - ##########01
CD/DVD - ##########02

If they were not counted as the same, it would mean there would be 3 different versions of the album charting. That is not going to happen. McGuinness is confident the album will hit #1 in the USA. But will see what happens on Wendsday or Thursday.