Predict 1st Week Sales of HTDAAB

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ChangeTheTemperature

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Predict 1st week sales of How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb:

(It has been confirmed that U2 will not push up their release date - www.nme.com )

US: 675,000 (increased hype, Thanksgiving week, iPod ads)
Canada: 85,000

UK: 120,000
Rest of Europe: 700,000

Aust & NZ: 70,000

Rest of World (Africa, South America, Asia): 300,000

Overall 1st week sales: ~ 2 Million


I predict #1 in US (Eminem is being released on the 12th), UK, Canada, Aust, NZ and across most european countries.
 
I'll venture a guess for U.S. numbers although there are way too many variables at this point.

So, assuming the release date is remaining on the 23rd....

I will say 510,000 if the regular and special editions are counted as one.

470,000 if the regular and special editions are counted seperately.

I'm also giving U2 the edge for the number one spot.
 
the content here is the same as an earlier thread, in response to an article in an Australian newspaper that advised opening week sales of 3 million expected - which would, by some distance, make it the biggest opening week this year.

Mike
 
First week: 450,000 units sold
Second week: 375,000
Third week: 300,000
Fourth week: 350,000
Fifth week: 250,000
Sixth week: 175,000
Seventh week: 150,000
 
Ok... let's get specific :D.... I reckon 503,912 in the first week if all versions of the album are counted as the same release.

Probably around 446,580 if they are counted separately.

Lol so yah I really don't have a clue, but might as well count all the jellybeans in the jar :).
 
In Australia it will go twice platinum in the first week. Thats 140,000. ATYCLB and the last two Best ofs did the same too.
 
I think to project sales in the 400 thousands is underestimating the album

This one is going to at least debut in the 500's .....and I'd go so far as to say that it may have a crack at early 600's....

..this album and relating news are EVERYwhere at the moment. They have never covered all of their bases so comprehensively as this time.... the last album was coming off Pop and it still gave them a personal best....they sold over 4 million of 'All that..' in the states....AND...the marketing and extra publicity has been HUGE for this one.....

..I think its gonna be big....

est: 615,000 copies.
 
anything between 500k and 600k...oh, and i don't think it'll hit #1 spot: there's Creed and Norah Jones (who moved 1 million copies in the 1st week with the previous album) also releasing albums that week...and we should also take count of eminem's 2nd week that should be around 500k
 
I'm sticking to my original thread guess: 650,000 or more in N.A.

Yeah, it's high, but it's the biggest music shopping week of the year.
Even 5-6th place moves 175-200,000 on this week most years...

Creed is dead, and is not a concern...(what do they have out?)

I can't find any info on a new Norah Jones CD, is it live or something? She's been on tour all summer and fall, when did she put together a new disc? Her last album is only 8 months old...

Em got moved back to this friday, so he'll be out a full week and a half before U2...

D. Child got moved back to the 15th, so they will be out a week before U2...
 
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The only main concern for U2 now is still Eminem even if he was moved forward 4 days, but it DOES give U2 a better chance at #1. However this is probably overshadowed by the fact that the new album is now available for free as an illegal download, so I'm sure U2'll lose around 10,000 to20,000 in sales.
Although I must say, that if people who download the album aren't going to buy it, it's very likely that they wouldn't have bought the album in the first place but waited til it got onto the Internete later if the leak hadn't occurred... I hope I made sense just there :scratch:.

WHYWHY.
 
I'm thinking this will be an historic opening week for U2 in the US. I'm calling for 1,000,000...take that to the bank
 
doctorwho said:
I think sales will be lower - much lower. I predict sales around that of ATYCLB: 402,000

Of course, I'd love to see sales of 500,000 copies in the U.S.! :D
Click to expand...

I predict sales will top ATYCLB the first week. :)
 
BostonAnne said:


I predict sales will top ATYCLB the first week. :)
Click to expand...

Not good enough - you must given an exact number! LOL! :wink:

I very much so want this album to debut with 500,000+ copies in the U.S.

I'm estimating low for several reasons:
  • to prevent disappointment due to the hype;
  • "Vertigo" is great, but I think "Beautiful Day" was more universal and more appealing - as such, I think sales will be a bit lower;
  • strong competition for a wide array of artists.
 
I'm clueless with this stuff, but if ATYCLB did 402,000 then I'll guess that HTDAAB will do no less than 450,000.

My reasons for guessing higher are:

- ipod spots will raise interest & sales

- momentum of the Elevation tour. Their popularity grew from between Pop & ATYCLB to between ATYCLB & HTDAAB.

Is that better? :wink:
 
cseggleton said:
I'm thinking this will be an historic opening week for U2 in the US. I'm calling for 1,000,000...take that to the bank
Click to expand...

You could be right, the leak may damage sales in the Opening week...some people might wait a bit before the buy it since they already have, i for one will be to the CD store before it opens...

but they've never been away for this long....spent a fair bit on marketing...
 
Well, one thing we know is that at least two people will buy it - myself and you, the reader.

So I'll say 2+.
 
While I know a bit about stats and sales, I'm terrible about predicting/estimating anything. So don't take notice of my estimate. However, for a few days I've been having the numer 850,000 in my head. Totally outrageous, I know, but I can't think of anything else. So here you go. ;)

C ya!

Marty
 
With all the hype and great reviews, plus U2 rebuilding or reconnecting with their fan-base in the US, I predict a 33% uptake to 569,240 copies.

Hey we should give a prize for the closest number. I hope we get to number 1, but I what I really want to see in terms of chart performance in the US is for the album to stay in the top 10 for months - this will need radio airplay, hits, word of mouth etc... ATYCLB spent only like 3 weeks in the top 10, but it got to 4m copies by being in the top 100 for yonks - grammy wins, superbowl apprearances did not hurt either.
 
Why would they only move 400,000? It's the biggest music shopping week of the year. If they moved 400,000 they'd be lucky for 3rd or 4th place.
 
From HitsDailyDouble.

Eminem is expected to sell 750K this week, Destiny's Child 400K.

So moving on to next week I see Eminem at 500 K - 550 K.

I think U2 will beat that and get #1.

Still predicting 650-700K.
 
DANG this is going to be close.

I was expecting Em to be much higher--900,000+ to 1 mil. 8 at the very shocking least. ONLY 7? Shocking.

Maybe the Em leaks damaged his store sales. In which case we should be afraid for U2...very afraid.

On the other hand, the multiple versions should help too. How many of us will want the DVD and go looking for "Fast Cars"? Are alternate version counted in sales? U2 are offering far more than Em with alternate versions.

I am crossing my fingers that U2 do 500,000+ next week, that MIGHT make a #1 just "election-day close" possible; if not it should come in at #2, which wouldn't be bad considering ATYCLB was #3. With the tour (I haven't heard anything yet but have read about the FANTASTIC "live" stuff people are saying this album has) I don't think there will be any problem with continuing sales. Maybe the Bomb will get to 5 mil this time.

The band are more visible than they were 4 yrs ago on the eve of ATYCLB. More know about them. Bono's Africa headlines and visibilty have helped too. There is a small but loyal teen audiewnce out there unlike last time.
 
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Eminems album was only out for 4 to 5 days of sales, which would account for the lower sales. Also remember Em will be out TWO weeks in front of U2, not one. So if Em falls to around 500k or so this coming week, he will hopefully fall to 400k or less the next week when going up against U2.
 
I most definately think the album will sell more in it's first week than ATYCLB managed - maybe 450,000 as BostonAnne said. My reasoning for this is simply because U2 are, in my humble opinion, more popular now than around the time of ATYCLB's release.

Not sure if they will knock Eminem from the #1 spot, but November 23-30 will be a beautiful week for U2, regardless :D
 
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