Pop's power list

[Popmartijn]

Hello,

I found this interesting article on the site of the LA Times.
http://www.calendarlive.com/music/cl...op-blurb-right
It's a candid look into the opinions of the big music executives regarding their artists and sales. The premise of the article is:

to learn which artists they think would sell the most albums (and thus bring them the biggest bonuses) over the next five years.

There isn't much mention of U2 in the article (they also don't appear in the top 10 of the power list) and of course only some of the more saucy comments were used in the article. Anyway, it's still a good read.

Here are quickly some of the U2 mentions:

And U2 fans should brace themselves: "Time is catching up with them. I'd rather have Coldplay on my roster."

Coldplay was the only rock group that executives across the board saw being able to match those numbers. The "new U2" tag came up often in the interviews.

The comparison is far from perfect. Coldplay doesn't have the thematic range and depth or sheer musical originality of U2, but the group's best songs have a wonderfully warm, engaging feel that makes it acceptable on mainstream radio.

"I just thank the pop-music gods that there is a band like Coldplay," one executive said. "They play mainstream pop-rock that gets on the radio and is lovely without being fluffy."

"This is where you really have to be disciplined," an executive said. "They're one of the greatest bands of all time, but they may become more of a touring presence, like the Stones, than continue to sell millions of albums."

And here's another quote from that article that I thought was quite interesting, regarding downloads and sales:

"Rock has really been hurt by the new reality in our world," said one executive, whose list included only two rock acts. "It's is the most stolen, pirated, whatever you want to say, genre we have now. Whatever you think you could sell with a rock album, you have to cut it by a third."

And oh, U2 did not make the top 10 this year, but neither did they make it in 2001. Considering the basis of this list (and seeing the other artists and their sales), I think that's reasonable. Since 2001 U2 has released only one album of original material and a Best Of... with total sales in the USA of 5 million. If you compare that to Eminem (18 million), Usher (13 million), Destiny's Child/Beyonce (10 million) or even Coldplay (I think about 6 million for AROBTTH and X&Y combined, with that last one still going strong). And those executives keep in mind it may take another 3 to 4 years before U2 release another album.

C ya!

Marty

[ybird3k]

very interesting,

theres a lot of talk about Alicia Keys on there, i didnt think shes that big, certainly not outside of America, how many copes has her latest album sold globally?, and i wouldnt say shes going to become any bigger in the next 5-10 years.

surprised to see Coldplay at #3, but they have got a huge amount of potential to sell records, but if there next album or 2 sounds exactly the same as all there others (which it probably will) i think people will get bored of them.

how is 50 cent only at #8?, he should be higher than everyone except usher IMO, due to his current album sales.

Eminem definately has the ability to become as big as he was a few years ago, but then he may also loose all of his popularity

and Dr Dre at #10, i thought he no longer makes his own music just produces other people?

infact all of the top 10 except coldplay, are American and all make R&B/Hip-Hop/Rap.

where are Greenday? American Idiots sold a massive amount of copies, and theryre bigger now than ever.

i think why U2 havent done that well, is because it takes them so long to make an album, and time is definately against them, though every album they have is guarenteed to be a massive commercial success. as it says theres also the factor that they might concentrate on touring more than making new records.
and it's definately better financially if they toured, 3-4 million $60 tickets or 10million $10 albums ?

I didnt realise that Rock is the most pirated genre of music though, why is that?

[BigMacPhisto]

Originally posted by ybird3k

where are Greenday? American Idiots sold a massive amount of copies, and theryre bigger now than ever.

When Green Day sold 10 million copies of Dookie, their followup, Insomniac, sold two million.......like most rock acts, they need an album with a lot of hits to get massive sales. Their next could end up selling just a million.

[Popmartijn]

And from the article it seems like they made the top 20, but were just outside the top 10.
And yes, one 4 million selling album does not equate to massive selling power in the next five years.

If you saw the top 10 of 2001, you know how wrong music executives can be.

[ybird3k]

is this list just for USA then, not globally?

[Yahweh]

just goes to show you how brutal American taste in music is which I have been saying for years.

[STING2]

These industry guys got it wrong in 2001, and they probably have it wrong in 2005 as a whole.

They definitely have it wrong about U2. Consider these numbers for U2 since January of 2000, the beginning of the decade.

Over 10 million in album sales in the United States!

Over 30 million in album sales worldwide!

With the exception of M&M few artist if any have sold as many albums as U2 has in this decade.

Consider the sales of ATYCLB, over 4 million sold in the USA and over 12 million sold worldwide.

...or Best of 1990-2000 1 million in the USA and over 5 million worldwide

or the current HTDAAB, 3 million in the USA and over 9 million worldwide.

PLUS- album sales of U2's large catalog of 11 albums released before January 2000 that continue to sell a good number copies in this new decade every year.

Coldplay amazingly was cited as the hottest act to look out for with the exception of Usher and Keys. But consider the fact that since January of 2000, Coldplay's album sales are behind U2's.

Parachutes 6 million
AROBTTH 10 million
Live 2003 2 million
X&Y 5 million

Total 23 million

[fedeu2]

Combined sales of ATYCLB, Best of 1990-2000 and HTDAAB are about 8,5 million in the US.
For U2 to have sold 10 million in album sales in the US after 2000 would mean that back catalogue sales (pre-2000 albums) are at 1,5 million.
Is that possible? I mean, the only catalogue albums that seem to have kind of high sales are JT, Best of 1980-1990 and maybe AB. And those are not monster sellers at all like for example Pink Floyd´s Dark side of the moon.

Thanks Sting2.

Originally posted by STING2
These industry guys got it wrong in 2001, and they probably have it wrong in 2005 as a whole.

They definitely have it wrong about U2. Consider these numbers for U2 since January of 2000, the beginning of the decade.

Over 10 million in album sales in the United States!

[STING2]

Originally posted by fedeu2
Combined sales of ATYCLB, Best of 1990-2000 and HTDAAB are about 8,5 million in the US.
For U2 to have sold 10 million in album sales in the US after 2000 would mean that back catalogue sales (pre-2000 albums) are at 1,5 million.
Is that possible? I mean, the only catalogue albums that seem to have kind of high sales are JT, Best of 1980-1990 and maybe AB. And those are not monster sellers at all like for example Pink Floyd´s Dark side of the moon.

Thanks Sting2.

They don't have to be monster sellers like Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon. Consider the Best of 1980-1990. It was released after the version with the B-sides at the end of 1998. Its peak position was #46 which typically is only about 20,000 copies in sales. It sold steadily though through the end of 1999 and probably did about 600,000 in sales by the end of 1999. Since January 2000 though, the album has been certified platinum and double platinum in different years, with double platinum coming just 3 years ago. The album is often selling around 4,000 copies a week on the soundscan chart and does good business with the record clubs that are not tracked by soundscan. The album has shipped roughly 2.6 million copies now, with about 2 million of that figure since January 2000!

So, 1980-1990 has actually sold more than the 1.5 million number you were wondering about. An album like Joshua Tree averages 2,000 copies sold per week. Acthung Baby about 1,500 copies per week. The other 8 catalog albums released prior to 2000 each average about 300 copies a week(2,400 total). So, lets do some math.

Estimated sales since January of 2000 in the USA:

ATYCLB/Best of 1990-2000/HTDAAB 8.5 million
Best of 1980-1990 2 million
Joshua Tree 600,000
Achtung Baby 450,000
Rest of Catalog: 750,000

So, U2's total album sales in the United States since January of 2000 our roughly 12.3 million. This means that U2's combined back catalog of 11 albums released prior to January 2000 sales about 633,000 copies a year in the USA. This is an average of 57,600 copies sold for each of the 11 albums per year. If anything, sales of these albums a probably higher, but this is a good conservative estimate.

Based on the sales statistics provided in the survey's, there is only one artist that has had clearly stronger sales than U2 in the United States since January of 2000, and that is Eminem with over 18 million in sales.

[fedeu2]

Thanks Sting2, you´re the man!!!!!!!!!
Sales of Best of 1980-1990 are amazing.

Originally posted by STING2


They don't have to be monster sellers like Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon. Consider the Best of 1980-1990. It was released after the version with the B-sides at the end of 1998. Its peak position was #46 which typically is only about 20,000 copies in sales. It sold steadily though through the end of 1999 and probably did about 600,000 in sales by the end of 1999. Since January 2000 though, the album has been certified platinum and double platinum in different years, with double platinum coming just 3 years ago. The album is often selling around 4,000 copies a week on the soundscan chart and does good business with the record clubs that are not tracked by soundscan. The album has shipped roughly 2.6 million copies now, with about 2 million of that figure since January 2000!

So, 1980-1990 has actually sold more than the 1.5 million number you were wondering about. An album like Joshua Tree averages 2,000 copies sold per week. Acthung Baby about 1,500 copies per week. The other 8 catalog albums released prior to 2000 each average about 300 copies a week(2,400 total). So, lets do some math.

Estimated sales since January of 2000 in the USA:

ATYCLB/Best of 1990-2000/HTDAAB 8.5 million
Best of 1980-1990 2 million
Joshua Tree 600,000
Achtung Baby 450,000
Rest of Catalog: 750,000

So, U2's total album sales in the United States since January of 2000 our roughly 12.3 million. This means that U2's combined back catalog of 11 albums released prior to January 2000 sales about 633,000 copies a year in the USA. This is an average of 57,600 copies sold for each of the 11 albums per year. If anything, sales of these albums a probably higher, but this is a good conservative estimate.

Based on the sales statistics provided in the survey's, there is only one artist that has had clearly stronger sales than U2 in the United States since January of 2000, and that is Eminem with over 18 million in sales.

[doctorwho]

I agree with all your numbers Sting (although I think you are very high on the amount of AB sales - that album rarely makes an appearance in the Top 200 on the catalog charts), but disagree regarding other artists' sales. Haven't artists like Shania Twain and Usher and Alicia sold more than 12.3M in the U.S. since 2000? If the article only talks about the U.S. and only counts the last few years, U2 are not a major seller. Sure, HTDAAB has done very well - but 3M is not the same as 5M and U2's slow release rate certainly hurts more than helps. If we go back to 2000, U2 appear strong, but so do many other artists. Heck, even Mariah Carey's latest is 3x Platinum - and that was after she "flopped" a few years ago!

[STING2]

The article goes back to "2001" with its sales figures. I don't know if thats January 2001, November 2001, or somewhere in between. All I did was go back one year further to January 2000 for U2 which is the start of the decade and compared it to the figures they had for the artist since 2001. It was a quick comparison and yes, U2 is getting another full year of sales in comparison, but many of these artist are new and did not sell anything in 2000.

Below are the figures reported for these artist since 2001. They are based on soundscan, but I did not check their accuracy.


1. Eminem 18 million
2. Dr. Dre 0*
3. The Beatles 1 million
4. Dave Matthews Band 7 million
5. Madonna 2 million
6. Destiny's Child/Beyoncé 10 million
7. Shania Twain 8 million
8. Limp Bizkit 1 million
9. Faith Hill 3 million
10. Celine Dion 5 million


Usher 13 million
N' Sync/Justin Timberlake 8 million
Britney Spears 8 million
Linkin Park 8 million
Jay-Z 7 million

Norah Jones 13 million
50 Cent 11 million
Alicia Keys 10 million


But, focusing on RIAA, I get these numbers for the artist above since January 2000:

Eminem 22 million
Britney Spears 20 million
Linkin Park 16.5 million
N'SYNC 16 million
Jay-Z 15 million
Norah Jones 14 million
Destiny's Child 13.5 million
Usher 13 million
U2 12.5 million
Shania Twain 11.5 million
Faith Hill 11 million
50 Cent 11 million
Beatles 10 million (only includes the (1) album)
Alicia Keys 10 million
Limp Bizkit 9 million
Dave Matthews Band 7 million
Celine Dion 6.5 million
Madonna 5 million
Dr. Dre 5 million
Beyonce 4 million
Justin Timberlake 3 million

The estimate of catalog sales for a number of these artist including U2 since January 2000 is not perfect, so this is a rough estimate and only includes artist the article talked about.

The list obviously changes though if we were only to include albums released since January of 2000. I'm not going to caculate that at the moment, but we know U2's figure is 8.5 million which is still very good. Shania Twain's figure would be 8.5 million as well. Usher would of course be at 13 million and Keys would still be at 10 million. Eminem would still be the largest seller in the USA with albums released since January 2000, with 21 million in sales. Several other artist though would see their album total drop by almost half if releases prior to January 2000 were not included.


As to Achtung Baby's album sales average on a weekly basis in the USA, I do not think I'm high at all. Consider that it takes usually a minimum of 2,000 copies to make the Billboard Catalog 200. Achtung Baby rarely if ever makes that, so giving it an average of 1,500 in sales per week, well below what is required to make it on the Catalog 200 seems about right. I also got a little album sale information on Def Leppard's Pyromania and found it to be selling about 1,000 copies a week prior to a sudden media event that pushed its sales high enough to chart on the Billboard Catalog chart the following week. While Achtung Baby may not chart on the Catalog 200, its average sales per week are definitely ahead of Pyromania's typical average when one looks at sales data from Amazon.com.


In any event, no matter how you cut it, U2 is a major seller in the United States over the past few years. Selling 3 million copies in 2005 is huge accomplishment, and BOMB will likely be in the top 5 or top 10 of Billboards top 200 albums for the year(2005) in the United States. Achtung Baby was #5 on that chart for 1992, and I predict BOMB will come in at #7 or #8 for the year which means BOMB relative to the competition, has done about the same thing that Achtung Baby did for U2 when they were arguably at the peak of their success in the USA.

[STING2]

Well, Eminem has been the biggest album seller in the United States since January 2000. But what Eminem can do on the concert stage is a totally different story. Consider some of this weeks BOXSCORE results for Eminem with the help of some "opening acts".

Tinley Park ILL. : Tweeter Center : July 11, 2005 : GROSS $1,184,266 : ATTENDANCE 19,955 : CAPACITY 29,045 : SHOWS 1 : SELLOUTS 0

realize the above venue is located just outside of Chicago, the third largest city in the United States and one of the largest cities in the world.


Denver Colo. : Pepsi Center : July 14, 2005 : GROSS $988,682 : ATTENDANCE 13,157 : SHOWS 1 : SELLOUTS 0

Capacity was reduced for the Denver show from the normal 18,500 down to 14,112. Despite this, Eminem and his friends could not sellout the venue.

So, who are Eminem's friends on the bill with him:

50 Cent, Lil' Jon & The East Side Boyz, G-Unit, D12, Obie Trice, Stat Quo

So lets see, you sell more albums than any other artist in the USA since January 2000, have 6 opening acts to include the hot new rapper 50 cent, but you can't sellout a single night in an arena sized venue at some of the biggest cities in the USA at an average ticket price of only 60 dollars?

U2 could do better business than this on the concert scene before they even had a single platinum album back in 1984.

These boxscores should get Eminem booted from the Pop Power list.

[phanan]

Originally posted by STING2



In any event, no matter how you cut it, U2 is a major seller in the United States over the past few years. Selling 3 million copies in 2005 is huge accomplishment, and BOMB will likely be in the top 5 or top 10 of Billboards top 200 albums for the year(2005) in the United States. Achtung Baby was #5 on that chart for 1992, and I predict BOMB will come in at #7 or #8 for the year which means BOMB relative to the competition, has done about the same thing that Achtung Baby did for U2 when they were arguably at the peak of their success in the USA.

Are you basing Bomb's sales on the actual calendar year? Obviously, it came out in November of 2004 and had already sold about 2 million before 2005 even began.

Or does Billboard's year start in November or December? I forget. In any case, Bomb's actual sales in 2005 have only been about a million.

[Axver]

All I can say is at Eminem. What an embarrassment.

[beLIEve]

Originally posted by phanan


Are you basing Bomb's sales on the actual calendar year? Obviously, it came out in November of 2004 and had already sold about 2 million before 2005 even began.

Or does Billboard's year start in November or December? I forget. In any case, Bomb's actual sales in 2005 have only been about a million.

If my memory is correct (might not be), Billboard's album calendar runs from Nov 1 to Nov 1, not by calendar year. Dr. Who knows for sure, though.

[phanan]

Looks like it runs from the first Billboard issue date in December to the last Billboard issue date in November, which would mean that all of Bomb's sales to date would indeed be included in Billboard's 2005 year end chart.

Still, it is interesting that in the U.S., actual sales were at 2 million by the end of year, but that it has somewhat struggled so far this year, wavering just below a million. Some better promotion and perhaps an actual single would have been nice...

[Maoilbheannacht]

Those numbers for Eminem are interesting.