NLOTH sales predictions
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If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
Native_Son
Acrobat
first week 1.5M, first year 6M, ten years 8M
The_acrobat
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
I'd be surprised if the actual sales turn out to be any more or less than your predictions. Not bad for 2009 standards. The only thing that will change that is if this album has a big hit.
cjboog
Refugee
Well it's a little hard for me to do this now because I haven't yet heard the album. That being said...with all the raving going on on this website about how great this thing is, I'm gonna throw some numbers out there and then revise them later after I hear it. And I'm only going to do US for now...
US first week
550,000
US first year
2.9 million (Legs, baby, legs!)
US five years
4.1 million
US ten years
5.0 million
Worldwide...no clue
US first week
550,000
US first year
2.9 million (Legs, baby, legs!)
US five years
4.1 million
US ten years
5.0 million
Worldwide...no clue
i still cant belive people are predicting coldplay to be outselling U2
I would be happily surprised if Coldplay didn't.
Native_Son
Acrobat
i still cant belive people are predicting coldplay to be outselling U2
hit singles sell albums, you could release an album of 11 average songs, but people will buy on the strength of one song.
and Viva La Vida single did huge things for coldplays album, still top 10 on global chart after all this time.
U2 do NEED a bit hit song, and i dont think its going to come,
i heard the compilation of 30 second clips presumeably the walmart ones. and i have to say i was v. disapointed, even if a few clips appeard to be intros. sounded more along the lines of 2nd half of ATYCLB to me, not rock at all. not gonna download the full album on mp3 and spoil listening to the CD on 2nd of march though
fedeu2
War Child
i heard the compilation of 30 second clips presumeably the walmart ones. and i have to say i was v. disapointed, even if a few clips appeard to be intros. sounded more along the lines of 2nd half of ATYCLB to me, not rock at all. not gonna download the full album on mp3 and spoil listening to the CD on 2nd of march though
Believe me, the new album does not sound anything like ATYCLB.
For me, it´s their best since Acthung Baby.
Mirrorball06
The Fly
I agree. To me it sounded more like UF and AB. And I would like to see Magnificent as the next single.
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
The U2 name alone should generate decent first week sales. After that, it's up to a second and third singles and other promotion.
First week U.S.: 400K
Worldwide: 1.5-2M
First year U.S.: 1.5M (this is dependent on second/third single - if hits, then 2.5-3M)
Worldwide: 5.5-6M (if big follow-up hits, then 6-7M)
10 years: 3-3.5M
Worldwide: 8-9M
That 10 year mark may be reached by the end of the tour with just minimal sales thereafter (as part of overall catalog sales).
Again, tough to predict. If there are some big hits, then this album could take off. If the tour and other promotion work, then the album could take off. But based on GOYB and Springsteen and Eminem, plus the general inaccessibility of the album, I'm thinking lower sales this time.
First week U.S.: 400K
Worldwide: 1.5-2M
First year U.S.: 1.5M (this is dependent on second/third single - if hits, then 2.5-3M)
Worldwide: 5.5-6M (if big follow-up hits, then 6-7M)
10 years: 3-3.5M
Worldwide: 8-9M
That 10 year mark may be reached by the end of the tour with just minimal sales thereafter (as part of overall catalog sales).
Again, tough to predict. If there are some big hits, then this album could take off. If the tour and other promotion work, then the album could take off. But based on GOYB and Springsteen and Eminem, plus the general inaccessibility of the album, I'm thinking lower sales this time.
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
i still cant belive people are predicting coldplay to be outselling U2
I would love my predictions to be wrong.
But Coldplay had that big hit. "Vertigo" carried HTDAAB a LONG way. Based on that one song, HTDAAB hit 2x Platinum in weeks. It took a while for the album to actually sell over 3M copies via Soundscan, but even then, the hit single and the tour did the job.
Coldplay is younger. U2 have age working against them. Kids really need a powerful song to like an older group. If I was 13, I probably wouldn't know U2 unless they had a huge hit.
GOYB is not that hit. But other songs could be.
"Magnificent" still might not be that hit - for 13 year olds. But it could be HUGE with adults - and that could also give the album a major push. And once the song starts to cross over, it will hit the Top 40 and then possibly become a hit with tweens and teens. This is how "Beautiful Day" grew.
If U2 have "Magnificent" and "Stand Up" or "Crazy" become those types of hits (I think "Stand Up" has a bigger chance of succeeding than "Crazy", but that's not may call), then U2 could very well outsell Coldplay.
The tour will help though. It could keep the album floating in the Top 100 for a long time and that can slowly, but surely, build up sales.
Popmartijn
Blue Crack Supplier
I guess that I have a moral duty to also post in this thread, considering that I gave a very accurate prediction four years ago (I believe I was only 8,000 units off). 
Oh wait, have I set the bar too high now, for my predictions...
For a while I had a number in my head of how many units U2 would sell of No Line On The Horizon. However, the past few weeks made me reconsider that, mainly because Get On Your Boots doesn't seem to be as omnipresent as I'd expected. So my guess is that first week sales of No Line On The Horizon in the USA will be 533,000 units.
After the first year, sales will be 2 million.
After ten years, sales will be 4 million.
Oh wait, have I set the bar too high now, for my predictions...
For a while I had a number in my head of how many units U2 would sell of No Line On The Horizon. However, the past few weeks made me reconsider that, mainly because Get On Your Boots doesn't seem to be as omnipresent as I'd expected. So my guess is that first week sales of No Line On The Horizon in the USA will be 533,000 units.
After the first year, sales will be 2 million.
After ten years, sales will be 4 million.
cjboog
Refugee
I gave a very accurate prediction four years ago (I believe I was only 8,000 units off).
Come on U2! Listen to Dr. Who already! Release Magnificent as a single!!!
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
It might be a bit too soon to release "Magnificent", but U2 shouldn't wait too long either.
I fear this could have a "Discotheque" effect. IMO, NLOTH is a much better album than "Pop" and I'd hate to see it dismissed because people didn't like GOYB.
At the same time, U2 are known for really milking those singles for every drop. I disagree. Get out a second and third single fairly early on. Even if one of them is a huge hit, nothing wrong with having a few songs in the Top 40 or Hot 100. As one song declines, another is rising and music fans hear two songs from the album.
With "Pop", U2 let "Discotheque" linger far too long. Time to let GOYB go. Have "Magnificent" be released the same weak as the album.
I fear this could have a "Discotheque" effect. IMO, NLOTH is a much better album than "Pop" and I'd hate to see it dismissed because people didn't like GOYB.
At the same time, U2 are known for really milking those singles for every drop. I disagree. Get out a second and third single fairly early on. Even if one of them is a huge hit, nothing wrong with having a few songs in the Top 40 or Hot 100. As one song declines, another is rising and music fans hear two songs from the album.
With "Pop", U2 let "Discotheque" linger far too long. Time to let GOYB go. Have "Magnificent" be released the same weak as the album.
It might be a bit too soon to release "Magnificent", but U2 shouldn't wait too long either.
I fear this could have a "Discotheque" effect. IMO, NLOTH is a much better album than "Pop" and I'd hate to see it dismissed because people didn't like GOYB.
At the same time, U2 are known for really milking those singles for every drop. I disagree. Get out a second and third single fairly early on. Even if one of them is a huge hit, nothing wrong with having a few songs in the Top 40 or Hot 100. As one song declines, another is rising and music fans hear two songs from the album.
With "Pop", U2 let "Discotheque" linger far too long. Time to let GOYB go. Have "Magnificent" be released the same weak as the album.
couldnt agree more
Aygo
Rock n' Roll Doggie
I would love my predictions to be wrong.
But Coldplay had that big hit. "Vertigo" carried HTDAAB a LONG way. Based on that one song, HTDAAB hit 2x Platinum in weeks. It took a while for the album to actually sell over 3M copies via Soundscan, but even then, the hit single and the tour did the job.
Coldplay is younger. U2 have age working against them. Kids really need a powerful song to like an older group. If I was 13, I probably wouldn't know U2 unless they had a huge hit.
GOYB is not that hit. But other songs could be.
"Magnificent" still might not be that hit - for 13 year olds. But it could be HUGE with adults - and that could also give the album a major push. And once the song starts to cross over, it will hit the Top 40 and then possibly become a hit with tweens and teens. This is how "Beautiful Day" grew.
If U2 have "Magnificent" and "Stand Up" or "Crazy" become those types of hits (I think "Stand Up" has a bigger chance of succeeding than "Crazy", but that's not may call), then U2 could very well outsell Coldplay.
The tour will help though. It could keep the album floating in the Top 100 for a long time and that can slowly, but surely, build up sales.
I have to agree with this. Boots is a very nice song but it doesn't have the strenght to be a great lead single, specially when the album is being released out of the Xmas fall and knowing that the band is ageing at the eyes of the public, comparing to the new acts.
Anyway, a good lead single doesn't mean a thing these days. Madonna (a comparable act to U2) had a very strong lead single for her last album (comparing with "Hung Up", "Frozen" or "American Life" - Madonna didn't reach the Hot5 and stayed for so long since 2001) but Hard Candy sold a miserable 4M copies mark.
Due to the actual state of the discographic industry, I do not believe that NLOTH will sell more than 7M copies, unfortunatelly.
Irishteen
Blue Crack Addict
I'm only betting on 4 million right now, Boots wasn't a good lead single in hindsight
Maybe a good second/third single will help
Maybe a good second/third single will help
Native_Son
Acrobat
upon first listen i dont think boots was good enough, but from reviews it appears that boots was the most radio friendly song on the album. doesnt exactly fill me with confidence.
the new Eminem song really sucks #9 this week in UK (down from #4), i cant see him even competing with U2 was far as album sales are concerned.
4 Million for NLOTH may well be the case after first year, but the way sales are i wouldnt bet against it being the #1 seller with those sales. (unthinkable 5-10 years ago)
the new Eminem song really sucks #9 this week in UK (down from #4), i cant see him even competing with U2 was far as album sales are concerned.
4 Million for NLOTH may well be the case after first year, but the way sales are i wouldnt bet against it being the #1 seller with those sales. (unthinkable 5-10 years ago)
0
04072511
Guest
Is there any realistic challengers to U2 for the Number one spot on the UK and US album charts?
Native_Son
Acrobat
not that i am aware, should be an 'easy' #1.
Kelly Clarksons album is out on the 9th possible #1 (last album went to number 2 in both UK and US, without a hit single)
then Eminem album is out 2 weeks later i think - guarenteed #1 on both sides of the pond.
NLOTH total sales will exceed both.
cjboog
Refugee
Well it's a little hard for me to do this now because I haven't yet heard the album. That being said...with all the raving going on on this website about how great this thing is, I'm gonna throw some numbers out there and then revise them later after I hear it. And I'm only going to do US for now...
US first week
550,000
US first year
2.9 million (Legs, baby, legs!)
US five years
4.1 million
US ten years
5.0 million
Worldwide...no clue
Alright, well there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of "3rd Masterpiece" talk outside of Interference so far so I'm probably going drastically alter these numbers downward after my first album listen
fedeu2
War Child
Alright, well there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of "3rd Masterpiece" talk outside of Interference so far so I'm probably going drastically alter these numbers downward after my first album listen
You´re wrong. Rolling Stone magazine gave the album 5 stars and dubbed it a masterpiece. Nearly all the reviews I´ve read (and I´ve read a lot) gave the album at least 4 stars. This is indeed a great work. Maybe it´s too early to give a definite opinion but when all is said and done I guess it will make my Top 3, right up there with JT and AB.
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
Good points.
Plus, remember, "masterpieces" are rarely recognized as being such at the time. And a lot of crap can sell boatloads. A "masterpiece" hardly means people will rush out to get it.
In 2000, I was all about ATYCLB doing well. Now, I'll be happy if U2 see "Zooropa" type numbers. Given illegal downloads, U2's age, the lack of super catchy songs, the fact that this is a true "album", etc., I don't think U2 will sell 4M copies of NLOTH in the U.S. (like ATYCLB did). But hopefully 2X Platinum in the U.S. and maybe 5-6M more worldwide.
Of course, would love more!
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