Hits Daily Double watch....

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U2 is my favourite football team ;)...i love statistics :) expecially when i see 495k with 51% of sales
 
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"Hits" very unpredictable

With just over 50% of the results in and 495K in sales, don't assume that you can double the sales number to get the final result. The updates are very unpredictable and there is no linear relationship.
 
Ok... let's still hope that they go as high as they can... it will be nice to see them break a record.

However... all this popularity scares me a little when I think of the war that ticket sales will be. It will be hard to score some good seats...
 
Re: "Hits" very unpredictable

beLIEve said:
With just over 50% of the results in and 495K in sales, don't assume that you can double the sales number to get the final result. The updates are very unpredictable and there is no linear relationship.
Click to expand...

i know...but that's still impressive
 
With 54% reporting from the precincts (ha!):

U2 INTERSCOPE 548,260
HOW TO DISMANTLE AN ATOMIC BOMB
1 2 EMINEM SHADY/INTERSCOPE 208,222
ENCORE
5 3 SHANIA TWAIN MERCURY NASHVILLE 182,680
GREATEST HITS
-- 4 GWEN STEFANI INTERSCOPE 169,740
LOVE, ANGEL, MUSIC, BABY


Nice!!!! They'll be well over 700k at this rate...
 
I was just saying that...

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With just over 50% of the results in and 495K in sales, don't assume that you can double the sales number to get the final result. The updates are very unpredictable and there is no linear relationship.
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I was just answering a question...believe me, I want to see U2 make FOX news eat it's words. As for "Hits", you can see that as the % results come in, changes are very unpredictable. If they are at 548K now, that means they jumped 53K albums with an increase of just 3% of "sales data" in at Hits. If there was a linear, logical relationship between "sales % data in" and this increase, for example, we'd be talking 1.5M in sales!

It appears that Hits gets in random information from different outlets, which accounts for the erratic jumps/drops in total sales. However, as the Doctor has pointed out, it's usually within 7% of actual Soundscan sales. It's also usually on the low side of actual results.

So, at this rate, FOX will have to retract their earlier, premature report. They should be forced to name their source (I heard he lives in Texas and hates U2) and then someone should get fired for such shameful reporting.
 
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In any case, Hits Daily Double is taking a really looong time to keep on updating the site, assuming that results have to come out tomorrow...
 
Hey Womanfish wasn't it you that introduced us all the Hits back around the ATYCLB release date?

I was just a reader back then but I want to thank you because I have really enjoyed watching the charts every week.
 
With 70.43% of the data in, here's the Top 10:

LW TW artist / album label power index
-- 1 U2 INTERSCOPE 735,024
HOW TO DISMANTLE AN ATOMIC BOMB
1 2 EMINEM SHADY/INTERSCOPE 325,444
ENCORE
-- 3 GWEN STEFANI INTERSCOPE 273,984
LOVE, ANGEL, MUSIC, BABY
5 4 SHANIA TWAIN MERCURY NASHVILLE 259,536
GREATEST HITS
2 5 DESTINY'S CHILD COLUMBIA/CRG 236,455
DESTINY FULFILLED
7 6 TOBY KEITH DREAMWORKS NASHVILLE 216,275
GREATEST HITS 2
8 7 NOW THAT WHAT I CALL MUSIC! V.17 CAPITOL 215,323
VARIOUS
-- 8 FANTASIA J RECORDS/RMG 194,887
FREE YOURSELF
6 9 SNOOP DOGG GEFFEN 170,331
R&G (RHYTHM & GANGSTA)
13 10 NELLY FO' REEL/UNIVERSAL 145,370
SUIT
 
While extrapolating any Hits data is nearly impossible, with only 70% of the data in, HTDAAB has already sold 735,000 copies. Therefore, I doubt FOX's number of 750,000 copies or less. Unless there is a HUGE difference between Hits and SoundScan this week, HTDAAB should easily surpass 800,000 copies.

Also, it's easy to tell the holidays are here. By the time the sales are tabulate, the Top 20 albums might have all sold 100,000 copies or more! :ohmy:
 
I know they can fluctuate, and it may not happen. But I hope these scores continue, til we get to 100%. This is very exciting. If they hit a million I think they would surprusie everyone's initial expectations.
 
CICOLO said:
..MY COMPLIMENTS TO FOX NEWS..
Click to expand...

Realizing the two caveats in that (1) the full data is not yet in and (2) SoundScan data could be very different from Hits (especially for the #1 album), it does seem to me that the FOX reporter took a look at the Hits chart from yesterday and extrapolated. At one point, 214K copies of HTDAAB were sold with 34.6% of the numbers reported. A person not familiar with Hits would think since a third of the numbers have been reported, that 214K represents one-third of total sales. As such, sales would only be between 600,000 to 700,000 copies!

However, as shown by the data gathered today, it's not a linear relationship. The remaining 30% of the numbers could see NO sales for HTDAAB or it might see another 300,000 copies sold!

In other words, I think FOX jumped the gun.

SoundScan will be able to confirm.
 
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Ok, time to start betting again... let's try to guess the final Hits Daily Double number... my prediction: 927,818 copies.

Pablo
 
Wow.... so much has happened whilst I was sleeping.... so good :D Great to see U2 absolutely killing this week. Still from the last couple of weeks, I've noticed that Hits has always been stating slightly higher figures than soundscan (just look at Eminem's last two weeks), so whilst with Hits they may achieve 850,000 or so, I bet Soundscan figures would be lower, more like 800,000.
I hope they're able to make it over 850,000 that would blow me away... to double ATYCLB :D.
 
..I'M ITALIAN SO I AM NOT ABLE TO UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOUNDSCAN AND HITSDAILYDOUBLE..IF THE LAST DOES NOT MATTER WHY WE LOOK AT THESE DATA??
IF WE HAVE TO WAIT SOUNDSCAN'S FINAL DATA THERE IS NO REASON TO MAKE ANY PREDICTION LOOKING AT THE HITSDAILYDOUBLE.PLEASE, EXPLAIN TO ME THE DIFFERENCE.THANX A LOT
 
Hits Daily Double is an estimate that compiles information from different sources... as such, it is unofficial. Soundscan is the so-called official figure (e.g., respected by the music industry) of actual record sales.
 
SoundScan is what Billboard uses. As such, this is "official".

Hits, if I understand correctly, reports the numbers from the stores.

As such, there are some minor differences.

We don't have access to SoundScan data. I used to have a source that would provide me with the weekly charts, but I haven't heard from her all year. :(

Sometimes some websites or media outlets that discuss music sales will list the actual SoundScan data for the top few albums (for example, I'm sure we'll learn of HTDAAB's opening week SoundScan sales and maybe even the numbers for next week too). However, without the actual SoundScan reports, we have to estimate the sales.

This is where Hits comes in. They are usually very close to the SoundScan numbers. For example, in 2000, SoundScan reported 428,500 copies sold for ATYCLB in its first week. Hits reported 435,206 copies sold. That's a difference of only 1.5%! So Hits is a great way for us to get a good estimate of weekly U.S. sales (in the Top 50 at least) when we don't have SoundScan data.
 
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However there is in the Fox news something generally understimating Universal releases and,if you note, in the article there is a sort subterranean war against Universal stuff.
For example,Fox gives to Gwen Stefani about 250.000 copies at number six,while we find her ( i add unfortunately) already at 274.000 unit sold in the third place,still remaining another 30%.
Well i can understand a mistake in the order of 5-7% to big numbers like u2, but in the Stefani's case it'ld be a consistent mistake with a 20%+ difference!
Also it seems to me not realistic that, 30% remaining, there will no sales for HTDAAB;at the contrary the positive trend seems to be more and more consistent.
Maybe i am in mistake..
 
CICOLO said:
However there is in the Fox news something generally understimating Universal releases and,if you note, in the article there is a sort subterranean war against Universal stuff.
For example,Fox gives to Gwen Stefani about 250.000 copies at number six,while we find her ( i add unfortunately) already at 274.000 unit sold in the third place,still remaining another 30%.
Well i can understand a mistake in the order of 5-7% to big numbers like u2, but in the Stefani's case it'ld be a consistent mistake with a 20%+ difference!
Also it seems to me not realistic that, 30% remaining, there will no sales for HTDAAB;at the contrary the positive trend seems to be more and more consistent.
Maybe i am in mistake..
Click to expand...


No, I think FOX was in error, not you.

I get the feeling that they did some estimates based off of early numbers from Hits (as I wrote in a post above).

Those of us who've watched Hits for a few years know that the sales data is not linear to the amount of stores reporting. As I wrote, with 30% of the stores left, U2 could get NO sales or could get another 300,000 copies in sales! It's really that open.

Therefore, to estimate based on 33% of the data reported would be wrong - and I think that's what the FOX reporter did. Because while Hits and SoundScan aren't a perfect match, the usually agree pretty darn well.
 
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