any predictions for Best of Charting?

[womanfish]

The week before the best of comes out, there are releases from:
Nick Carter, Christina Aguilara, Eminem (8 mile soundtrack), and best of Nirvana.

on the same week the best of comes out, they will go against: Justin Timberlake, Whitney Houston, and Dave Matthews Live at Folsom.

What do you think

I think U2 will be at number 2 or 3. Definitely behind Justin Timberlake, but I'm not sure who the other one could be in front of them, Christina, Eminem, Whitney and Nirvana are all strong contenders.


thoughts?

 

[Vox02]

I Think Best Of will be at #2 with initial sales around 250,000-300,000 copies.

I don't have any information about the initial shippment, but the two million ( in fact, 1 million beacuse of the 2 CD pack ) of the previous limited edition of 80-90 seems the best option.

Vox

 

[STING2]

I'm not sure about the USA, but worldwide, expect this to enter at #1 in at least 20 countries, if not more, around the world.

 

[WHYWHY]

I certainly hope the Best Of gets to #2, but I reckon it'll just reach #3. It would be a miracle for U2 to get #1 IMO. Sales between 350,000 and 450,000.
It'll spend 3 weeks in the Top 10 and 7 in the Top 20, ands another 21 in the Top 40.
By November 4th 2003 it will have sold 2 million 1 CD units and 1.2 million 2 CD units to have a certification of 4X platinum in the USA.
Around the world by Nov. 4th it will have sold 9 million units (including single and double pack in that).

Cause I think I'm being slightly conservative with some of those uneducated estimates but ofcourse we have no idea how it will do...for all we know it may take a few weeks before it really kicks of and actually rises to #1 from say #4 or something like that my wish :smile:

However, such releases as Eminem, Christina Aguilera (even if she is already going down), Best Of Nirvana and Just Timberlake pose a serious problem IMO to U2 making the Top 3... Here's hoping ...pity Electrical Storm hasn't made such an impact over there that people will be looking out to buy it (other than U2 fans)

Bless ya!
WHYWHY.

 

[Danospano]

My prediction depends on the marketing strategy.

If U2 hits the airwaves with commericals advertising the album like they did for Elvis Presley's #1's and the Rolling Stones' "Forty Licks", it will debut in the top 3.

If U2 relies on word of mouth and the meager publicity brought on by the release of "Electrical Storm" I think we're all going to be disappointed. While I love U2, I haven't heard much buzz surrounding the album. This being said, I predict it will only reach #5 or #6 in its debut week, behind Shania Twain, Justin Timberlake, Eminem, Christina Aguilara, Nirvana, and possibly Dave Matthews.

Realistically, I think it will debut at #5 and will hang around for a while. This means I think it will sell steadily until the new album comes out in the summer of 2003. Eventually selling close to 2.5 million copies by next summer.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

I'll guess conservatively...........1 Billion Units (1.5 Billion if they're lucky)............368 Consecutive Weeks at #1..................

 

[Hawkmoon1021]

My prediction depends on the marketing strategy.

If U2 hits the airwaves with commericals advertising the album like they did for Elvis Presley's #1's and the Rolling Stones' "Forty Licks", it will debut in the top 3.

If U2 relies on word of mouth and the meager publicity brought on by the release of "Electrical Storm" I think we're all going to be disappointed. While I love U2, I haven't heard much buzz surrounding the album. This being said, I predict it will only reach #5 or #6 in its debut week, behind Shania Twain, Justin Timberlake, Eminem, Christina Aguilara, Nirvana, and possibly Dave Matthews.

Realistically, I think it will debut at #5 and will hang around for a while. This means I think it will sell steadily until the new album comes out in the summer of 2003. Eventually selling close to 2.5 million copies by next summer.

I think that's a solid prediction.

 

[STING2]

My Guess would be 1 to 1.5 million in the USA by next summer and about 7 million worldwide by next summer 2003.

 

[little boy blue]

The week before the best of comes out, there are releases from:
Nick Carter, Christina Aguilara, Eminem (8 mile soundtrack), and best of Nirvana.

on the same week the best of comes out, they will go against: Justin Timberlake, Whitney Houston, and Dave Matthews Live at Folsom.

Nick Carter, no talent suck that rides on his brothers' coattails

Christina Augliaria, whore no-talent

m&m, should be in prison

Nirvana, dead people have bad timing?

Justin, no talent punk needs ass-whiping

Whitney, needs to be in rehab

Dave Matthews, I just don't get it, good elevator music though

 

[Vox02]

US First Year : around 2 million

Worldwide First Year : around 8 million

Vox

 

[The_acrobat]

Honestly, we'll be lucky if U2 enters the top 5.
Justin Timberlake will obviously be at #1
Nirvana, Dave Matthews, Christina, Nick Carter and Eminem all pose a big threat. Nirvana will be big the first few weeks. DMB, for some reason, has a huge following...although it is just a live album, plus his latest studio album kinda flopped. Christina doesn't really have a lot of hype, nor does Nick Carter. No one cares about Backstreet Boys anymore. My predictions for that week are

#1-Justin Timberlake
#2-Nirvana
#3-Eminem
#4-DMB
#5-U2

The only songs from this compilation that even get radioplay anymore is "One", "Mysterious ways", "Beautiful Day", "Stuck in a moment", and "Electrical storm". I haven't really heard a whole lot about it in the press. The fans will buy it. "Electrical storm" might influence some people to buy it, and the POP remixes may have some weight to carry there. But it isn't going to be nearly as huge as the best of 1980-1990. I don't really care, but I hope that U2 aren't overexposing themselves.

 

[Hawkmoon1021]

I'm guessing Eminem debuts at #1. No one is really selling records like him these days.

Further decline of Western Civilization....Bon Jovi's new album debuted at #2 on the album chart. I'm thinking it will quickly fall but... .

I thought Rock N' Roll was coming back with bands like The Strokes & The Hives? I guess not commercially. Maybe that's a good thing....At least Tom Petty is in the Top 10.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

DMB's last live album barely charted in the top 20 if I remember correctly, while Nirvana's album will have already have had huge first week sales and fallen. Also, the new Best Of only has to sell half as much as everything else (besides DMB) since it has two discs. I really believe that it will slide in at #3 behind Christina and Justin.

 

[Se7en]

I thought Rock N' Roll was coming back with bands like The Strokes & The Hives?

Sorry to jump in on the little estimation game, but if these bands are the future of rock and roll...just kill me now. thanks.

U2 is up against tough competition...I think their days of being huge in the US are over. I would like it if they pulled a Beatles and quietly put out their last one or two albums without a lot of fuss or huge tours.

 

[STING2]

Well judging by how much ATYCLB sold in the USA, over 4 million copies and counting, I'd say their days of being huge in the USA are far from over. In overall terms of popularity, there is not a single active artist except maybe Shania Twain that can match U2s popularity in the USA. Remember that overall popularity is a combination of the average of the latest studio albums sales and latest concert ticket sales. Shania Twain is the only artist that can really challenge U2s current status in the USA. But thats based on her last album and tour which is now several years old.

How well an album debuts on the Billboard 200 is based on large part on popularity with the younger crowd. Albums have high sales the first week don't necessarily become blockbuster sellers. Take ATYCLB and N'SYNC's last album. N'SYNC's last album has the record opening week in the USA with 2,400,000 in sales while ATYCLB first week was about 430,000. But they ended up with sales totals in the USA of 4 million for ATYCLB and 5 million for the N'SYNC album. A lot closer than the first week would show and it clearly shows that young teens form the bulk of N'SYNC's fan base. On a Global scale, ATYCLB has sold over 11 million copies worldwide and counting while the N'SYNC album sold less than 6.5 million worldwide.

With the Best of....1990-2000, were looking at an album who's success should not be judged by how well it does the first week, but by how well it is selling two years from now on the catalog chart. Greatest hits albums are albums of longevity and their success is measured in years, not initial weeks on the chart.

 

[little boy blue]

U2 is up against tough competition...I think their days of being huge in the US are over. I would like it if they pulled a Beatles and quietly put out their last one or two albums without a lot of fuss or huge tours.

They just had the 2nd highest grossing tour ever, and played the super bowl and won a ton of grammies.

What are you talking about?

And you don't want to see them tour anymore?

 

[Hawkmoon1021]

Well judging by how much ATYCLB sold in the USA, over 4 million copies and counting, I'd say their days of being huge in the USA are far from over. In overall terms of popularity, there is not a single active artist except maybe Shania Twain that can match U2s popularity in the USA. Remember that overall popularity is a combination of the average of the latest studio albums sales and latest concert ticket sales.

As much as it pains me to say, What about Eminem, Creed, Linkin' Park & Britney? They definitely sell more records than U2 in the States. I'm pretty sure U2 is more popular touring wise though...

 

[STING2]

Well lets take a look at those artist you mention and see how their latest studio album release stacks up with U2 AND how well they do in concert ticket sales which is 50% of what overall popularity is. The other 50% is album sales. Single sales these days are such a tiny fraction of the overall market that their not really counted. The single is simply a way to promote the album. The end goal is always to get people to purchase the album and purchase a ticket to see the artist in concert, at the highest price that can get them to buy.

U2: ATYCLB has sold 4 million in the USA. 2001 concert tour of 80 shows Grossed over 109.5 million. Every show was a sellout even in the smaller markets at an average ticket price of around 85 dollars. U2s 2001 Elevation tour is the 2nd highest grossing tour in USA history. In terms of popularity in the USA, they are at the top with the best average of "album sales/concert ticket sales" of any artist in the USA.

Britney Spears: BRITNEY has sold 4 million copies in the USA. I don't have the exact figures for her latest concert tour, but it has failed to sellout shows in some of the biggest markets at ticket prices 50% of U2s. In fact she failed to sellout her show in Los Angeles. U2 nearly sold out an Arena show in Los Angeles all the way back in 1983 on the WAR tour before they even had a single Gold Album(500,000 copies sold). Britney's tour is a tiny fraction of the success that Elevation was last year and U2 latest album is equal in sales to hers.(actually slightly more if you look at the soundscan figures) U2 clearly comes out on top in popularity currently when it comes to this competition in the USA.

Creed:WEATHERED has sold 5 million copies in the USA. Again Creed only charges half of what U2 does and yet still fails to sellout many if not most of their Arena shows. Even in cities where demand is stronger and they do sellout, they do not put on sale behind the stage seating meaning nearly 1/4 of the Arena's seats are not even used. Their latest Big city show not to sellout was Philadelphia. On the Elevation tour all 3 Elevation shows in Philadelphia, using behind the stage seating, all sold out in minutes. More shows were not added due to time constraints. U2 could easily sellout 6 shows in Philadelphia alone and Creed can't even sellout one, even when their not even selling seats behind the stage! While U2s latest studio album has sales 80% of Creeds latest, Creeds concert tour business performance is a much smaller fraction of U2s concert tour business performance. U2 clearly comes out on top in popularity currently when it comes to this competition in the USA.

Eminem:THE ENIMEM SHOW has sold 6 million copies in the USA. When it comes to concert business performance, Eminem is in worse shape than even Britney. Not only our his ticket prices cheaper, but he is forced to tour with other artist that have their own rather strong followings for support acts. His concert business would be even smaller if he did not tour with them. After all this he still struggles to sellout and often does not, even without selling seating behind the stage. U2 clearly comes out on top in popularity currently when it comes to this competition in the USA.

Linkin Park:HYBRID THEORY has sold 8 million copies in the USA. This is double ATYCLB, but U2s concert business performance is MORE than DOUBLE Linkin Park's. Linkin Park is behind Creed in Concert tour business performance and is more in line with Britney but ahead of Eminem. U2 clearly comes out on top in popularity currently when it come to this competition in the USA.

This is the way things are currently in the USA in regards to these artist based on the latest studio album releases and concert tours.

 

[Danospano]

I wouldn't say that because U2 makes more money at the concerts, they are bigger stars than Eminem or Britney. I think that album sales aren't a good factor either. U2 charges more for their tickets because their fanbase can afford to buy them.....Album sales don't account for burned copies and there isn't a statistic that could tell us who gets burned more often (U2, Creed, Britney, or Eminem)

 

[STING2]

U2 don't charge more because their fanbase is older, U2 charges more because the demand to see them live is higher. It is the law of supply and demand! If it was about the older fanbase, AC/DC would be charging more than U2, but their tickets are less than half of what U2 charges. Also, not all U2 fans are old and rich.

In addition, when were talking about total Gross figures, were not just talking about money, were also talking about attendance. But attendance, ticket price, and final Gross all effect each other.

Its true many people burn CDs off the internet these days, but its still a fraction of the number of people that buy them in the stores. Most people still do not have internet access let alone a CD burner. Its hurting the industry of course, but were talking about a 10% decrease in CDs bought from the year before, so CD burning is still the minority way in which people get their music. I'm not sure what it will be like in the future though.

The best way to determine how popular any product or service is, is to see how much people spend their hard earned money on it. U2 sellout Arena's all across the country at a higher ticket prices because they are more popular. Even with tickets half of the price of U2s, the other artist still do not attain the attendance levels that U2 has, let alone the record sellout times. Most of the other artist shows don't even sellout.

Also, how popular is an artist if most of their albums were burned off the internet rather than being purchased with ones money. Money shows devotion, while burning an album off the internet shows a level of skepticism that prevents that person from buying the album in the store. Of course, to those with the internet and a CD burner, many may not ever buy an album in a store again, until there is successful CD encription preventing the burning of new albums released.

 

[anitram]

They'll sell more than DMB. I can practically guarantee it.

I also believe they'll sell more than Nirvana - grunge has been dead for years and the kids don't give a shit about Kurt Cobain - they'll be buying the Justin Timberlake record.

Justin Timberlake will be #1, an egregious insult to the music fans all around the world.

Whitney Houston - I don't think she'll sell more than U2.

We're probably looking at Justin, and maybe Eminem. Sacrilege.

 

[STING2]

If it was a new U2 studio album, I think it would beat all the others. Most Greatest Hits albums or best of's.... do not have amazingly high first weeks. For the Best of 1990-2000, we may only see 200,000 the first week or less in the USA. For the USA, I'd say were looking at about 1 million sold for the first year. The Best Of 1990-2000 does not have the commercial strength that the Best of 1980-1990 has.

 

[WHYWHY]

Yeah...my question is....
Why was there so much hype over the Best Of the 80s and almost none over the 90s?

I certainly hope U2 get into the Top 3....but #4 will be more likely in my opinion. Maybe is Electrical Storm had become a hit by now (i.e. Top 40 by now) we would see it reach #2....but i doubt it now...


God Bless.
WHYWHY.

 

[Danospano]

Hitsdailydouble.com has printed it's sales predictions for the week of Nov. 5th.....and of those being release on that date the top 6 are....

1) Justin Timberlake: 1.9 million units
2) Dave Matthews Band: 620,000 units
3) U2: 430,000 units
3) Jay-Z: 430,000 units
5) Brian McKnight: 140,000 units
6) Lil' Romeo: 100,000 units


This doesn't mean those will be the highest sellers of the week. If you factor in the release from the two preceding weeks you find that Eminem, Christina Aguilera, Nick Carter, and Nirvana are expected to have strong first week sales (250,000-1.8 million).

My revised prediction for U2's debut week:

1) Justin Timberlake: 1.7 million units
2) Eminem: 875,000 units
3) Dave Matthews Band: 610,000 units
4) Nick Carter: 450,000 units
5) Christina Aguilera: 425,000 units
6) U2: 420,000 units
7) Jay-Z: 419,000 units
8) Nirvana: 200,000 units
9) Brian McKnight: 115,000 units
10) Lil' Romeo: 98,000 units

 

[womanfish]

I usually am in agreement with hitsdailydouble on their predictions, but for this one, i think they have their head up their asses!!

Justin Timberlake will not sell 1.9 million in one week. I say a little over half that amount. Dave Matthews Band?!?!?! No WAY. This is a live release. Their last live release sold around 250,000 the first week and that was when they were far more popular. I predict about half of the sales that hits predict. U2 selling 430,000. Maybe in both formats of the best combined, but as we know, Billboard splits up the best of between the 2 normal edition and special edition. I think U2's best selling format will be lucky to hit 300,000. The wildcard there is if it is a double disc set then each one sold will count as 2, so who knows. And i didn't know anything about Jay-Z, he will probably sell a large amount.

Danospano, I have to disagree with you when you say that Eminem will sell 875,000 in his second week of release. Remember this is a soundtrack album, and it is coming pretty close on the heels of his last album, so I don't think it will sell quite that strong, but still quite a bit. Probably more like 500,000.

But hey this is all just my deluded opinion.. Can't wait to see.

 

[STING2]

I agree with Womenfish. Also, the double count rules only apply to shipments and are RIAA rules. Soundscan will only count each package, not each disc in the package.

 

[womanfish]

AAAAAHHH, so it isn't hitsdailydouble that has there heads up their asses. Danospano just misread hits information.

When you look at upcoming releases on hits, they give the date of the bands last release and how many their LAST release sold in the first week, NOT what they expect this release to sell in the first week.

So 1.9 million for Timberlake is what 'nsync sold in their first week for Celebrity, 620,000 is what Dave Matthews sold for their first week with their last album, 420,000 for U2 for ATYCLB, etc....

It makes much more sense now.

 

[Vox02]

According to RIAA... Best Of will count 3 times for every single copy sold to the stores? Remember that Best Of Limited Edition will contain 3 CD : A sides, B Sides and the DVD.

It means that Best Of will certified 3 times Platinium?

Vox

 

[STING2]

Yep, if it sells a million copies and has 3 disc, it will be certified for 3 million in sales. Although maybe they won't count the DVD the same, thats a really good question. I hope U2 did not throw another disc in there just to make sure it goes platinum. I don't think so. If it is 3 disc, the band will only need to sell 335,000 copies to go platinum.

I think I remember the best of.........1980-1990 selling 200,000 copies 4 years ago in its first week in the USA. I think the best of 1990-2000 will sell about 150,000 copies in its first week in the USA.

 

[Danospano]

Oh, I DID misread the information! My bad.

With that being said I change my prediction.

Here it is....

1) Timberlake: 750,000 units
2) U2 (counting two units per sale): 500,000
3) Eminem: 425,000 units
4) Christina Aguilera: 300,000 units
5) Jay-Z: 219,000 units
6) Dave Matthews Band: 175,000 units
7) Nick Carter: 145,000 units
8) Nirvana: 140,000 units
9) Brian McKnight: 115,000 units