Se7en
Rock n' Roll Doggie
so the album only sold 270,000 albums this week. that seems like a HUGE drop in sales to me. is this past the normal week 1 to 2 drop?
doctorwho said:The huge drop is to be expected for several reasons:
- Huge opening week sales - the rush factor caused a large second week drop. This happens with movies a lot in the U.S.
- Thanksgiving week gave everyone a long weekend to shop. Also, many stores had sales on music - getting HTDAAB for as low as $7.99. Those low prices are gone (for now), so overall sales has dropped.
- The post-Thanksgiving week is notoriously slow, for just about everything. This includes movies and music. Jay-Z/Linkin Park would have easily crossed 400,000 copies if they had released a week earlier.
- U2 haven't done any new promotion this week. The week of and before the album's release, U2 were on TV (SNL) and doing a free concert. This put U2 on everyone's minds. With no new promotion, the album has returned "back to earth".
- No new single push. "Vertigo" has been out for a while now, and many have purchased it in some form (CD or iTunes). With no new single being played to push the album, sales will slump a bit until the next hit song.
The drop is still larger than I hoped. I optimistically thought U2 might only see a 50% drop, but then realized that this is highly unlikely. This is U2, not Eminem or any other "hot, young" artist. And then, when I refreshed my memory and saw that ATYCLB had a 59% drop, I realized that HTDAAB will have a drop of 60% or more given all of the above conditions.
Still, while we might be disappointed to see the big drop in sales, it's only one spot on the charts. Jay-Z, who is hot, didn't crush U2. U2 are still above Eminem and they beat out many other "hot, young" artists, like Kelly Clarkson and all the other American Idols. They also beat out several other debuts from various rap artists.
In other words, while the drop is high, the sales are still ridiculously strong. They've sold 1.1M copies in just 13 days! Eminem sold 1.6M copies of his current album in 10 days. That comparison alone says a LOT!
STING2 said:
I'm actually surprised by the huge drop because U2 has a fanbase that is primarily in its 30s unlike a lot of these younger artist. Typically, the artist with the older fanbase will see a smaller decline in their second week sales, because more people in the older fanbase are likely to take their time in getting the new album, (not forever), but some will not feel the need to have it the day it comes out.
zoo tv mcg said:Remember ATYCLB spent only 3 weeks in the top 10 altogether (3, 5 and 10). I am quietly confident that the album can stay in the top 10 thru at least December.
Question for Dr Who - when the album sold 259k the week before Christmas, what was its chart placing
One last note - for me with Vertigo being on radio since last September, now would have been the time to release another single a couple of weeks after album release to keep the album being played on radio. February is just far too late from some reports I have heard of the next single release - Vertigo would be key track being played for over 4 months - too long!!!!.
doctorwho said:
What's important to note in your sentence above is that the third week in the top 10 didn't occur until 2002 - after U2 won 4 Grammy awards and performed at the ceremony! These awards also followed U2 performing at the Super Bowl. Having two major high profile events like that gave ATYCLB another major push. However, when ATYCLB debuted, it only spent 2 weeks in the top 10 before falling out (even though sales remained strong).
zoo tv mcg said:One last note - for me with Vertigo being on radio since last September, now would have been the time to release another single a couple of weeks after album release to keep the album being played on radio. February is just far too late from some reports I have heard of the next single release - Vertigo would be key track being played for over 4 months - too long!!!!.
STING2 said:6 weeks out, I predict the "Bomb" will have sold 2,128,000 copies in the USA. The last week in those 6 weeks is the week after Christmas week. It should all go something like this:
840,000 + 273,000 + 190,000 + 250,000 + 410,000 + 165,000
doctorwho said:
The first week (840,000) and the second week (288,000 by SoundScan) are already recorded. But if HTDAAB only slips to 190,000 copies next week and then starts to rise as you are predicting for the holidays, that will be incredible!
I'm sure you based that prediction on ATYCLB's sales - so it is possible. However, as others wrote, to see 410,000 copies sold during Christmas week would be very high. I'm not saying it can't happen, I'd just be surprised if it did.
A lot of things go into sales, including the release date and how the holidays fall in the calendar year. In 2000, Christmas came on a Monday. That means sales were recorded from Monday Dec. 18th to Sunday Dec. 24th. Having a full week of sales that ran right up to the day before Christmas is what gave ATYCLB that huge pre-Christmas week. In contrast, Christmas falls on a Saturday this year. So the bulk of the sales will be from Monday, Dec. 20th through only Friday, December 24th. Having 2 less days of pre-Christmas sales means that HTDAAB might not see that extra huge bump in sales like ATYCLB did. It'll still rise significantly, but I'm not sure it'll reach the heights you are predicting (410,000 copies).
Post-Christmas sales could be strong though. Many people who got a Best Buy card might go shopping on the 26th and after and pick up a copy of HTDAAB.
In other words, while I don't think sales will be as high as Sting is predicting due to how the holiday falls, I do think we'll see some very big numbers for the rest of this month.