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Old 09-26-2021, 06:15 PM   #441
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Another good example of how sports win-o-meters are dumb. Dolphins down by 1 score 8 points) with the ball and 2 minutes at mid field with a timeout remaining and you mean to tell me they have a 3.7% chance of winning that game?

Dumb.
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Old 09-26-2021, 06:19 PM   #442
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Probably Spencer Rattler.

But not a good QB class.
My issue is not with Sir Dimes-A-Lot
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Old 09-26-2021, 06:36 PM   #443
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My issue is not with Sir Dimes-A-Lot


Momentary brain fart, I made you a Jets fan in my mind since you had the audacity to say Zach Wilson has only played two… err three… games.

Zach Wilson does not dime.
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Old 09-26-2021, 07:07 PM   #444
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Another good example of how sports win-o-meters are dumb. Dolphins down by 1 score 8 points) with the ball and 2 minutes at mid field with a timeout remaining and you mean to tell me they have a 3.7% chance of winning that game?

Dumb.
i would say yes probably at least 95% of the time that team does not score a touchdown and a two point conversion to tie the game in that particular situation.
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Old 09-26-2021, 07:21 PM   #445
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Momentary brain fart, I made you a Jets fan in my mind since you had the audacity to say Zach Wilson has only played two… err three… games.

Zach Wilson does not dime.
I'm just going to pretend this didn't happen.
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Old 09-26-2021, 07:25 PM   #446
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i would say yes probably at least 95% of the time that team does not score a touchdown and a two point conversion to tie the game in that particular situation.

When the last sample was taken from Yahoo (which I was citing) the Dolphins were somewhere at the opposing 30. At that range, there’s some 30-40% chance the drive results in a touchdown from 1st down. There’s a subsequent 50% chance of conversion for the extra points. Beyond that, OT has a 50% chance of victory.

Pen and paper there, thats 7.5-10%. I can believe that Tucker’s kick can bust a computer model since it was record breaking and a model might limit FG range to kicker’s range or what have you.

If there’s biasing involved in the model from pre-game favorites, I already don’t like the model. That overreaches.
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Old 09-26-2021, 10:02 PM   #447
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Well fuck THAT non-call in particular.
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Old 09-26-2021, 10:32 PM   #448
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Ahhhhh shit. I love it so much. Starting to feel this season now. There was so much weirdness it was hard to get into things but now it feels more normal.
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Old 09-26-2021, 10:56 PM   #449
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Whoever paid the refs off tonight is gonna be pissed.
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Old 09-28-2021, 09:20 AM   #450
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like i've always said, the division is the cowboys to lose.
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Old 10-01-2021, 08:26 AM   #451
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whew - had the Bengals in my survivor pool.
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Old 10-01-2021, 12:27 PM   #452
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I went the safe route with the Bills because, you know, the Bengals.
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Old 10-02-2021, 07:22 AM   #453
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Yeaaaa I try to get a little too clever with my picks earlier in the season in hopes that there's a big upset that takes out like 90% of the participants.

There's just shy of 2000 people in this one - top 10 get paid. Got in the final 60 last year before getting kicked in the balls on a last second field goal.
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Old 10-03-2021, 12:26 AM   #454
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Wow 2,000 people? How much was the buy-in and about how much do the top 10 get paid?
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Old 10-03-2021, 10:12 AM   #455
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Yeaaaa I try to get a little too clever with my picks earlier in the season in hopes that there's a big upset that takes out like 90% of the participants.

There's just shy of 2000 people in this one - top 10 get paid. Got in the final 60 last year before getting kicked in the balls on a last second field goal.
Damn what’s the pay in?
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Old 10-03-2021, 11:16 AM   #456
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$25 buy in.

1st place: 40% of paid entries, 2nd place: 20%, 3rd place: 12%, 4th place: 7%, 5th place 6%, 6th place 5%, 7th place 4%, 8th place 3%, 9th place 2%, 10th place 1%

1269 surviving going into today's games. 1903 total entries. 100 of us picked the Bengals. Can't see who everyone else picked until 1 pm.
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Old 10-03-2021, 12:15 PM   #457
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Unsurprisingly 60% of participants on the Bills. Would be a hell of a time for an upset. It's a monsoon out there so anything is possible (but, ya know, probably not)
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Old 10-03-2021, 12:59 PM   #458
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https://twitter.com/KingJosiah54/sta...943163395?s=19
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Old 10-03-2021, 02:21 PM   #459
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Well if anyone bet against the Jets lol they’re pitifully winning
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Old 10-03-2021, 04:20 PM   #460
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Yeah, I’m guessing that game cleared quite the number from the overall.
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