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Old 01-25-2016, 05:39 PM   #621
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Nah. The league's #1 defense isn't going to get destroyed by the league's #1 offense. Didn't happen to the Seahawks in Super Bowl 48, didn't happen to the Giants in Super Bowls 42 and 46 and it's not going to happen now.

The key matchup of the game will be the Panthers' OL vs. the Broncos' DL. If Cam gets 10-15 seconds to throw on every pass like last night, it will be a one-sided game. If Denver can wreck Cam the way they did Brady, the Broncos will win.
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Old 01-25-2016, 05:47 PM   #622
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Look at it this way:

Peyton Manning has 5 conference championships. Eli has 2. Peyton Manning, over his career, has been able to get to the super bowl twice as much as Eli has through his career.

It's almost like that doesn't count for anything, by your definition of success. If Peyton wins this super bowl (big if...), Eli doesn't have anything on him whatsoever.
I'm talking SUPER BOWL SUCCESS! I've emphasized that numerous times. I have already said that Peyton has accomplished more in the NFL and won more games. BUT, Eli was won more Super Bowls, therefore he has achieved more success in the SUPER BOWL than his brother.
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Old 01-25-2016, 05:52 PM   #623
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If Denver can wreck Cam the way they did Brady, the Broncos will win.
but Cam is (way) better than Brady, so Panthers win, not a close game.
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Old 01-25-2016, 05:58 PM   #624
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Let me get some of what you're smoking, deep.
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Old 01-25-2016, 06:01 PM   #625
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but Cam is (way) better than Brady, so Panthers win, not a close game.
Damn, now I'm really pulling for Denver. If the Panthers don't win, they'll be the '98 Vikings all over again. Cam is very good, but he will have a long off season if the Panthers don't win. Though not as bad an off season as Brady after the 2007 season.
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Old 01-25-2016, 06:03 PM   #626
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but Cam is (way) better than Brady, so Panthers win, not a close game.
Nobody and I mean nobody plays consistently good football with a defender in their face. Maybe they can pull off a highlight reel throw once in a while, but you can't build an offense around that kind of pressure. The Panthers' OL completely dominated last night and if they do the same again, they'll win in a laugher, but they are about to face the league's best pass rush.

I see the Panthers winning because they're probably the league's most balanced team, but you're ignoring history if you think a battle tested defense is about to get blown out on the big stage. That hardly ever happens.

Another important stat: the Panthers are currently sitting at +20 in turnover margin. That's a formidable stat and it helps to explain their dominance, but it's not something to rely on. The Chiefs were +15 and riding high, but they lost in New England with a -1 game. If the Broncos can be disciplined with the ball, that will affect the Panthers' efficiency in every aspect.
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Old 01-25-2016, 06:09 PM   #627
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Look at it this way:

Peyton Manning has 5 conference championships. Eli has 2. .
Peyton only has 4 conference championships.
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Old 01-25-2016, 06:33 PM   #628
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Nah. The league's #1 defense isn't going to get destroyed by the league's #1 offense. Didn't happen to the Seahawks in Super Bowl 48, didn't happen to the Giants in Super Bowls 42 and 46 and it's not going to happen now.

The key matchup of the game will be the Panthers' OL vs. the Broncos' DL. If Cam gets 10-15 seconds to throw on every pass like last night, it will be a one-sided game. If Denver can wreck Cam the way they did Brady, the Broncos will win.

The Broncos were overmatched two years ago and had a better offensive team. I don't see it being much better this year, even with a better defense.
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Old 01-25-2016, 06:45 PM   #629
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NFL 2015 Part 2: There's a Flag Down

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The Broncos were overmatched two years ago and had a better offensive team. I don't see it being much better this year, even with a better defense.

They've gone from 22nd in scoring D in 2013 to 4th in 2015 and just finished smothering two of the best offenses in football. Barring 5-6 takeaways, I don't know how Carolina intends to score enough points for a blowout.

I'm calling 21-17 Carolina, with a failed onside kick sealing the deal.
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Old 01-25-2016, 06:56 PM   #630
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Those were some spicy #hottakes, LM.
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Old 01-25-2016, 07:12 PM   #631
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NFL 2015 Part 2: There's a Flag Down

I try. Got to keep things spicy in the pre-Super Bowl downtime.
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Old 01-25-2016, 08:27 PM   #632
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I'm talking SUPER BOWL SUCCESS! I've emphasized that numerous times. I have already said that Peyton has accomplished more in the NFL and won more games. BUT, Eli was won more Super Bowls, therefore he has achieved more success in the SUPER BOWL than his brother.
I have no idea what you're trying to argue.
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Old 01-25-2016, 08:35 PM   #633
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The Panthers roster all being relatively new at this Super Bowl thing, which can be an overwhelming experience, is about the only thing keeping me from thinking this game won't be a blowout in the Panthers favor.

And quite honestly, that's a pretty shitty reason. Broncos should have lost twice and have a QB with a noodle arm and a history of bed shitting. I really don't think Carolina is as good as their record would say, and they've been an awful second half team... but Peyton is shot. Absolutely shot. I guess that should be some sort of testament to how good Denver's defense, I dunno.

This game's gonna suck. Panthers by at least two touchdowns.
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Old 01-25-2016, 09:17 PM   #634
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I have no idea what you're trying to argue.
I actually wasn't "arguing" anything. Just stating a fact. And then I was good naturedly busting LM's chops about his "truther" remark. If you care, you can go back to it. If not, life goes on.
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Old 01-26-2016, 02:53 AM   #635
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Peyton only has 4 conference championships.

Sorry, someone said 5 earlier I think, and I was just riding with it (I could only count 4 in my head, but I was also something like 6 years old when Peyton entered the league).
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Old 01-26-2016, 06:08 AM   #636
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I actually wasn't "arguing" anything. Just stating a fact. And then I was good naturedly busting LM's chops about his "truther" remark. If you care, you can go back to it. If not, life goes on.
I mean... I crack a joke here and there about Eli over Peyton in big games, and in a way it is true... but Eli's sample size is much smaller.

But I don't think there anyone who honestly believes Eli is better than Peyton who isn't also a moron.

I will argue that Eli would get looked at in a much brighter light by non Giants fans if his last name wasn't Manning. But that's about it.
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Old 01-26-2016, 06:44 AM   #637
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It's not just that, though. Three main unaccounted for factors:

- Denver's unrelenting end zone D
- Tom Brady's ability to move the ball down the field
- Denver's inability to get their offense going anywhere

Those are three big factors, that stray very far from the norm. And it proved to be true, in this case.
In case anyone still cares:

One source of systematic error that might exist in the fourth down model is that it's trained on data from 2000-2014.

The kickoff was moved back to the 35 yard line in 2011. 5 yards doesn't seem like much, but it's essentially enough to turn the old sudden-death OT system into a 50-50 proposition.

Kickoffs from the 35 would tend to favor taking the points/punting and trying to score again over going for it on marginal 4th downs, unless the model has already corrected for this.
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Old 01-26-2016, 08:51 AM   #638
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I mean... I crack a joke here and there about Eli over Peyton in big games, and in a way it is true... but Eli's sample size is much smaller.

But I don't think there anyone who honestly believes Eli is better than Peyton who isn't also a moron.

I will argue that Eli would get looked at in a much brighter light by non Giants fans if his last name wasn't Manning. But that's about it.
This is hilarious. I said numerous times that Peyton definitely had a more successful career than Eli. He accomplished more and had more wins. But, and this is the big thing that is baffling many. Eli has won 2 Super Bowls. Yes, Peyton appeared in more, but he has only one victory in the Super Bowl. LM made reference to quieting the "truthers" if Peyton wins the Super Bowl. Than I jokingly said that he would only equal Eli's success because they would both have 2 victories. To surpass Eli's Super Bowl wins, Peyton would have to win a third Super Bowl to shut up the Eli "truthers". What turned into a good natured jab at LM switched to a reading comprehension test that everyone failed. Which, was entertaining none the less.
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Old 01-26-2016, 09:12 AM   #639
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Old 01-26-2016, 09:22 AM   #640
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Alright.
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