NFL 2015 Part 2: There's a Flag Down - Page 30

brooklynmike · 01-24-2016, 05:45 PM

Broncos, baby!

speedracer · 01-24-2016, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

You think Gostkowski is going to miss two FGs inside of 40 yards, in one of the easiest stadiums to kick at? Cmon.

Brian Burke's model thinks it's borderline, and he's incorporating way more information than we are.

LemonMelon · 01-24-2016, 06:11 PM

68% chance of the Patriots making it there with the way Denver's defense was playing? More like 6.8%.

mikal · 01-24-2016, 06:13 PM

Interference = Every time NFL teams lose, we question coaching decisions.

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LemonMelon · 01-24-2016, 06:15 PM

Panthers look unstoppable right now. That Forehead must be sweating.

speedracer · 01-24-2016, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LemonMelon

with the way Denver's defense was playing?

If you want to discount the Patriots' chances on 4th down like that, you also have to discount their chances of staging additional scoring drives.

phanan · 01-24-2016, 06:24 PM

The Patriots defense had the Broncos offense well under control by the fourth quarter. Pats should have kicked a FG and then gone for the touchdown at the end.

LuckyNumber7 · 01-24-2016, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by speedracer

Brian Burke's model thinks it's borderline, and he's incorporating way more information than we are.

Does this model take into account the way the defense was playing? Did it factor in in game statistics? Situational statistics of the field they were playing on? Splits for the defense, and for Gostkowski? Are they split for playoff situations? What's the context, here?

Bottom line is that the patriots had two FG opportunities, and they had the ability to easily get the ball back on defense. Is that taken into account? I don't know how you can defend this decision. The patriots took the ballsier move, and it didn't pay off.

phanan · 01-24-2016, 06:26 PM

The Broncos will get killed in the Super Bowl against Carolina, if it comes to that. I could see a repeat performance of two years ago.

speedracer · 01-24-2016, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

Does this model take into account the way the defense was playing? Did it factor in in game statistics? Situational statistics of the field they were playing on? Splits for the defense, and for Gostkowski? Are they split for playoff situations? What's the context, here?

I'll try to dig up some references for you, but I'm pretty sure that Burke's research shows that using probabilities from the current game does a worse job of predicting future results in that game than using league-average results (which is what the model uses). In other words, using current-game probabilities (or making adjustments for such) is another small sample size mistake.

Also, saying that the Patriots had the ability to 'easily' get the ball back seems really optimistic to me.

bono_212 · 01-24-2016, 06:33 PM

I can't express how much I hate it when stadiums play Sunday Bloody Sunday over the PAs.

Oregoropa · 01-24-2016, 06:34 PM

Just heard the Panthers rocking SBS on the kick off

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Oregoropa · 01-24-2016, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bono_212

I can't express how much I hate it when stadiums play Sunday Bloody Sunday over the PAs.

They should not ignore Pop

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brooklynmike · 01-24-2016, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oregoropa

they should not ignore pop

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lol

deep · 01-24-2016, 07:04 PM

Pan
thers

lazarus · 01-24-2016, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bono_212

I can't express how much I hate it when stadiums play Sunday Bloody Sunday over the PAs.

No more!

LemonMelon · 01-24-2016, 07:20 PM

3 turnovers in 3 plays

Defense will definitely win a championship this year.

mikal · 01-24-2016, 07:22 PM

What a horrible coaching decision by Arians to have Palmer throw that interception.

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LemonMelon · 01-24-2016, 07:28 PM

Terry Bradshaw is convinced that Palmer should not have thrown that interception.

Headache in a Suitcase · 01-24-2016, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by speedracer

I'll try to dig up some references for you, but I'm pretty sure that Burke's research shows that using probabilities from the current game does a worse job of predicting future results in that game than using league-average results (which is what the model uses). In other words, using current-game probabilities (or making adjustments for such) is another small sample size mistake.

Also, saying that the Patriots had the ability to 'easily' get the ball back seems really optimistic to me.

Well fuck it I guess I'm an optimist.

Also optimists? The Patriots. Who easily got the ball back. Twice.

01-24-2016, 05:45 PM	#581
brooklynmike Refugee Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Like landing a 747 onto your front lawn Posts: 2,098 Local Time: 07:42 PM	Broncos, baby! __________________

01-24-2016, 06:33 PM	#591
bono_212 Blue Crack Distributor Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 83,865 Local Time: 05:42 PM	I can't express how much I hate it when stadiums play Sunday Bloody Sunday over the PAs. __________________

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01-24-2016, 06:11 PM	#583
LemonMelon More 5G Than Man Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Hollywoo Posts: 68,639 Local Time: 05:42 PM	68% chance of the Patriots making it there with the way Denver's defense was playing? More like 6.8%.

01-24-2016, 06:13 PM	#584
mikal Blue Crack Addict Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Black Lodge Posts: 27,433 Local Time: 07:42 PM	Interference = Every time NFL teams lose, we question coaching decisions. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

01-24-2016, 06:15 PM	#585
LemonMelon More 5G Than Man Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Hollywoo Posts: 68,639 Local Time: 05:42 PM	Panthers look unstoppable right now. That Forehead must be sweating.

01-24-2016, 06:24 PM	#587
phanan Blue Crack Addict Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: in the darkness on the edge of town Posts: 26,076 Local Time: 08:42 PM	The Patriots defense had the Broncos offense well under control by the fourth quarter. Pats should have kicked a FG and then gone for the touchdown at the end.

01-24-2016, 06:26 PM	#589
phanan Blue Crack Addict Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: in the darkness on the edge of town Posts: 26,076 Local Time: 08:42 PM	The Broncos will get killed in the Super Bowl against Carolina, if it comes to that. I could see a repeat performance of two years ago.

01-24-2016, 06:34 PM	#592
Oregoropa Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Polish-American Stronghold PA Posts: 4,144 Local Time: 07:42 PM	Just heard the Panthers rocking SBS on the kick off Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

01-24-2016, 07:04 PM	#595
deep Blue Crack Addict Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: A far distance down. Posts: 28,601 Local Time: 04:42 PM	Pan thers

01-24-2016, 07:20 PM	#597
LemonMelon More 5G Than Man Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Hollywoo Posts: 68,639 Local Time: 05:42 PM	3 turnovers in 3 plays Defense will definitely win a championship this year.

01-24-2016, 07:22 PM	#598
mikal Blue Crack Addict Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Black Lodge Posts: 27,433 Local Time: 07:42 PM	What a horrible coaching decision by Arians to have Palmer throw that interception. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

01-24-2016, 07:28 PM	#599
LemonMelon More 5G Than Man Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Hollywoo Posts: 68,639 Local Time: 05:42 PM	Terry Bradshaw is convinced that Palmer should not have thrown that interception.