NBA 2019-20 Thread

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is there anyone who can explain to me why a team that is currently in 5th place has a 33% chance of making the finals and a 16% chance of winning them, whereas the 2nd place team that has six more wins only has a 9% and 2% probability?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

i'm serious, this isn't just a "raptors are disrespected" post. nobody i've asked this too has been able to explain it.
 
is there anyone who can explain to me why a team that is currently in 5th place has a 33% chance of making the finals and a 16% chance of winning them, whereas the 2nd place team that has six more wins only has a 9% and 2% probability?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

i'm serious, this isn't just a "raptors are disrespected" post. nobody i've asked this too has been able to explain it.



Because that site should stick to politics.
 
i think they do a pretty good job covering sports. they approach their coverage from a very statistical perspective which is certainly better than the angry hot take factories like ESPN.
 
is there anyone who can explain to me why a team that is currently in 5th place has a 33% chance of making the finals and a 16% chance of winning them, whereas the 2nd place team that has six more wins only has a 9% and 2% probability?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

i'm serious, this isn't just a "raptors are disrespected" post. nobody i've asked this too has been able to explain it.

The Sixers get a ridiculous amount of unearned respect from many so called "experts".
I see them as a very flawed team, and their 2 best players have glaring weaknesses (Embiid can't stay on the court consistently, always either sick or some small injury and Simmons can't/won't shoot from beyond 12 feet).
They don't shoot well enough from outside as a team (the trade they just made helps a bit, but those 2 guys are still only bit players) and they space terribly. I think they are starting to regret giving an aging Average al Horford 4 years and over 100 Mil. Its absurd the amount of folks who still think they are the class of the east.
As Bill Parcells once said, you are who your record says you are, and frankly they are to me about the 5th best team in the east.
Bucks are the top of the class, and your Raptors (who are surprising me quite a bit with how well they are playing, thought they'd be a low playoff seed) and my Celtics are the 2 teams I think could knock the Bucks out.

I still say (as I did on the first page o this thread) that we saw a finals preview last night. Sure I'm looking at things through shamrock green glasses, but this team is gelling and Tatum & Brown are finally making the necessary strides in their games.
 
The Sixers get a ridiculous amount of unearned respect from many so called "experts".
I see them as a very flawed team, and their 2 best players have glaring weaknesses (Embiid can't stay on the court consistently, always either sick or some small injury and Simmons can't/won't shoot from beyond 12 feet).
They don't shoot well enough from outside as a team (the trade they just made helps a bit, but those 2 guys are still only bit players) and they space terribly. I think they are starting to regret giving an aging Average al Horford 4 years and over 100 Mil. Its absurd the amount of folks who still think they are the class of the east.
As Bill Parcells once said, you are who your record says you are, and frankly they are to me about the 5th best team in the east.
Bucks are the top of the class, and your Raptors (who are surprising me quite a bit with how well they are playing, thought they'd be a low playoff seed) and my Celtics are the 2 teams I think could knock the Bucks out.

yeah i agree with all of what you're saying, but this probability model is based entirely on publicly available data, and the opinions of anyone don't count at all for it. i'm baffled as to how it could possibly rate the sixers so much higher than both the celtics and raptors if that's the case.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/
 
I think the Raptors are the team with the best chance to knock the Bucks out. This year, the recipe to beat Milwaukee is to shoot the 3 ball in record numbers, and Toronto can get hot. I actually fear Toronto more than any team in the West.
 
Dave, as a UCF fan I can relate, but you’ve gotta remember there’s a reason why the computer modes might say one thing. It could just be that your team is clearly going against the grain and reinventing what the numbers are suggesting.
 
yeah i agree with all of what you're saying, but this probability model is based entirely on publicly available data, and the opinions of anyone don't count at all for it. i'm baffled as to how it could possibly rate the sixers so much higher than both the celtics and raptors if that's the case.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

Sometimes the eyeball test is a better gauge than data.
How data could give the Sixers such great odds when they have to be the road team in 2 series under their model (they have them projected to overtake Miami and be the 4 seed) is mind boggling. They suck on the road.

And its funny the first thing the article mentions that teams and RAPTOR value is floor spacing.
Philly's spacing is awful. RAPTOR must need glasses.
 
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I think the Raptors are the team with the best chance to knock the Bucks out. This year, the recipe to beat Milwaukee is to shoot the 3 ball in record numbers, and Toronto can get hot. I actually fear Toronto more than any team in the West.
I would fear a healthy Clippers team just a tad.

Absolute questions as to whether or not they can ever stay healthy through a grueling playoff grind, but if they do they have a great perimeter defense and a stud who's not afraid of Giannis

Milwaukee looks amazing - better than last year - alas, we've been down this road with Bud coached teams a few times. They'll need to prove they can do this in the spring. I wouldn't sleep on a couple of different teams coming out of the east.

The West seems to be LA squared with a shooters chance for Utah and Denver. I know the narrative many want to talk about is that the east has caught up to the west. The 9 seed in the west is Portland. In the east it's the Wizards. The West is still a far deeper conference.
 
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Remaining Schedule Difficulty

11. Raptors
12. Celtics

29. 76ers

lol this stupid model now has the 5th place 76ers as the favourite to win the east over the bucks, and the sixers are apparently stronger than the lakers now too. not sure how that could possibly have changed in the last two days with zero games being played but okay.
 
lol this stupid model now has the 5th place 76ers as the favourite to win the east over the bucks, and the sixers are apparently stronger than the lakers now too. not sure how that could possibly have changed in the last two days with zero games being played but okay.

Didn't you see how well Embiid dunked the ball uncontested in the All Star game?
Parade route being planned down Broad Street as we speak.
 
lol this stupid model now has the 5th place 76ers as the favourite to win the east over the bucks, and the sixers are apparently stronger than the lakers now too. not sure how that could possibly have changed in the last two days with zero games being played but okay.
RAPTOR is inherently flawed as it has no way of taking team chemistry and roster fit into account - so an underperforming talent filled roster with an easy remaining schedule will always over-perform in their rankings. The Celtics were always high there last year as well.

Why it changed when no games were played? I have no idea. It was probably behind a few games and needed to catch up.

Elo is a little more realistic once you get deeper into the season. But no matter how many fancy formulas people come up with, Vegas still outperforms them all in most cases.


https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/
 
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The Horford contract considering his age and already slightly balky knees was a severe overpay. They are going to hamstrung by the cap for a few years.
 
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Shaquille-O_Neal-tells-NSFW-story-about-when-Kobe-Bryant-gained-his-respect.jpg
 
Conley is looking like a bust for the Jazz. Honestly wish we still had Rubio.
 
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