Weiner-gate!

[kramwest1]

I assume the seat is up again in 2012 anyway. Maybe the local Dems can find a decent candidate to retake it.

[MrsSpringsteen]

So Mayor Koch endorsed the Republican. Israel was a big reason-he says Obama is willing to throw Israel under the bus in order to please Muslim nations.

[deep]

Originally Posted by kramwest1

I assume the seat is up again in 2012 anyway. Maybe the local Dems can find a decent candidate to retake it.

I think N Y lost two seats to reapportionment.

This district will probably go away.
So no real gain or loss for 2012.

[deep]

Originally Posted by MrsSpringsteen

So Mayor Koch endorsed the Republican. Israel was a big reason-he says Obama is willing to throw Israel under the bus in order to please Muslim nations.

Yeah, Drudge had some big headline in red,
REVENGE OF THE JEWS!!

[yolland]

It's not primarily about Israel, it's about the chillul Hashem (profaning God's name) charge a group of haredi rabbis leveled at Weprin over his vote in favor of same-sex marriage last June. The Orthodox in this district are predominantly Russian haredim and they tend to be strongly socially conservative. Had Weprin not been a (Modern) Orthodox Jew himself, it wouldn't have been nearly as much of an issue. Even given that, polling last week showed Weprin leading with Jewish voters by a small margin (there were no exit polls), so I assume the presence of large numbers of moderate-to-conservative Catholics (Turner is Catholic) in the district probably played some role too.

[MrsSpringsteen]

The article I read said it was about Israel and Social Security and something else I can't remember, for Mayor Koch. He seems to have a definite grudge against Obama regarding Israel.

I didn't even know he was still alive

[Headache in a Suitcase]

More and more I'm thinking that we may see a reverse HW Bush situation next year.

Good man, decent president... done in by a shitty economy.

[INDY500]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

and the D was a piss-poor candidate.

the R was a lifelong business man... a political novice.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by INDY500

the R was a lifelong business man... a political novice.

well, if you read a little about the race, rather than scoop the headlines from the right wing blogs, you'd know why he was a piss poor candidate.

there was a huge attempt to nationalize this race, because it seemed like a possible pick-up, and certainly discontent with national politics and the president was a factor.

but this is hardly the Upper West Side, and there are a lot of local issues at play that make it much more complicated than the "big fucking deal" links on redstate.org.

[kramwest1]

Originally Posted by deep

I think N Y lost two seats to reapportionment.

This district will probably go away.
So no real gain or loss for 2012.

That's right. I read that.

[financeguy]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

More and more I'm thinking that we may see a reverse HW Bush situation next year.

Good man, decent president... done in by a shitty economy.

Headache, a blog I follow was talking of Bloomberg the other day:

The dark horse in the race is Michael Bloomberg, the highly popular mayor of New York. If there was ever a politician who can change his spots, it is Michael. A lifetime Democrat, he switched parties to win as a Republican in a Democratic town. He could flip flop again, or bolt to form a third party. I have known Michael since he went door to door on Wall Street seeking funding to start his data business to replace the aging Quotrons. A more quixotic mission there never was.

Yet he succeeded wildly, making himself a billionaire many times over, proving his credentials as an entrepreneur and a businessman, and creating an urban legend. An early adopter, I have personally paid him over $1 million in fees for the past 20 years for his versatile machine, as have most other hedge fund managers.

Where do the Republicans stand in all of this? They have to spend a year appealing to the conservative base, attempting to outmaneuver each other in a marathon to the right. Then they only have two months to swerve back to the middle to win the election. They have a somewhat hopeless task, and is why we have so many two term presidents.

What Rick Perry harangues about is popular in libertarian, oil based Texas, but will they wear it in Ohio, Washington, or Florida? I think not. Mitt Romney’s Mormon origins leave his party’s Christian base cold, and he is unelectable without them. Both these men are presenting themselves as modern day incarnations of Ronald Reagan. But I knew Ronnie for decades, first as an aspiring governor of California, and a Reagan they are not. I can’t imagine Perry telling me an off color joke.

The rest of the field are just “also rans”. On top of this, the power of the presidency as a campaign tool is not to be underestimated. Air Force One versus a chartered bus? Give me a break.

Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I think Mike would be a tremendous president. Bloomberg winning as a third party candidate would restore my faith in american politics. A candidate that can't be bought.

That said, I'd be very surprised if he runs. But a man can dream.

[kramwest1]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

I think Mike would be a tremendous president. Bloomberg winning as a third party candidate would restore my faith in american politics. A candidate that can't be bought.

That said, I'd be very surprised if he runs. But a man can dream.

I think his candidacy would be an interesting litmus test for Republicans. Are there still real fiscal conservatives in it and would they vote their conscience? If so, Bloomberg could win.
It also would be very interesting to see polling in a 3-way race between Obama, Romney and Bloomberg and Obama, Perry and Bloomberg.

[Irvine511]

a Bloomberg independent run would pretty much guarantee a GOP victory in 2012.

likewise, a Palin/Tea Party candidate would assure Obama's reelection.

[Canadiens1131]

A third party candidate would have no chance in the current political system. The two major parties have colluded over the last century to ensure that.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

i think if we had viable third party candidates in every election, they would eventually start gaining ground. the problem is nobody wants to be the sacrificial lamb(s) that would be needed to get to the point of relevancy.

we need an expansion team.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

a Bloomberg independent run would pretty much guarantee a GOP victory in 2012.

likewise, a Palin/Tea Party candidate would assure Obama's reelection.

agreed, which is likely why bloomberg doesn't run, because he knows how difficult it would be, and how he's almost guaranteed to a) lose, b) be blamed by half the country for whoever does win.

how about if we get bloomberg and palin to both run

[Canadiens1131]

And Bloomberg couldn't "switch teams" for a presidential run, either, because he wouldn't be able to satiate the religious fanatics in the GOP base before taking a nice, grand swing back to the center for the general election.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

how about if we get bloomberg and palin to both run

now this would be really interesting.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

That it would. I think it's the only way Bloomberg could win.

And let me just add that I don't agree with everything Bloomberg has done. I agree with most, but he's screwed some things up along the line. But what I do know is that every idea he's presented is truly what he believes is best for the city, because there are no special interest groups financing him. He pays for himself.

He also lives a few blocks from me, so I knew if our power went out in the hurricane that shit would be back on quick