Weather Discussion Thread

[Oregoropa]

Interesting weather discussions have popped up in other threads and they are worth talking about as newsworthy items

I have a degree in Meteorology and am watching closely what is going on with Hermine in the Gulf. We haven't had a category 3 hurricane make landfall in the US in over a decade. One of the longest stretches in recorded history. Hermine is likely to come in as Category 1 Hurricane in Florida tonight and the weaken to tropical storm status as it rides up through Georgia and Carolinas.

What makes Hermine interesting is that once it reemerges off the Mid-Atlantic it will stall out and become a Hurricane again. This will place it 50-100 miles off the NJ coast for potentially 3 days. It won't make landfall like Sandy, but the constant tidal surge over 72 hours will devastate beaches from Rhode Island to Virginia. The water is extremely warm this year in that area and can provide the fuel to keep Hermine healthy.

Feel free to shoot any questions. If you are a weather junkie I can post some good links.

Stay Safe
-O


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[cobl04]

😒

[bono_212]

Oh I like this thread. We were just having a debate at work about whether Floridians were blowing the current situation out of proportion. I saw a great quote backing up my side yesterday, something akin to, "just because the winds are 70 miles an hour rather than 75,doesnt make them any less dangerous."

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[Headache in a Suitcase]

The building I live in is a block from the East River, technically below sea level, and took on extensive damage during Hurricane Sandy... so the predictions regarding the storm stalling out off the coast has me very worried.

They did a lot of work moving electrical equipment and vital infrastructure to higher ground after the insurance money came in, but I still have my doubts.

Really hoping this thing doesn't stall out.

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by bono_212

Oh I like this thread. We were just having a debate at work about whether Floridians were blowing the current situation out of proportion. I saw a great quote backing up my side yesterday, something akin to, "just because the winds are 70 miles an hour rather than 75,doesnt make them any less dangerous."

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The big threat in Florida will be tornadoes in some of the onshore rain bands. Typically with Hurricanes you are not looking a big F5 Oklahoma. Instead the thunderstorm bands that cycle through spawn F0-F1 tornadoes.

Headache - I looked at the computer models and unfortunately there is no cold front to boot it out to sea until the end of next week. It could literally just sit and spin off the Jersey-Delaware coast for 5 days. Very rare for a Hurricane at that latitude not to get pushed out to sea quickly. Given that position the water will just surge into the NJ coastline - NY Harbor. Each high tide will be amplified greatly. Spread the word.

[Hewson]

Heavy rains and abnormal tidal surges are always an issue for me as I live essentially in marshland a half mile from the ocean. Crawl space gets rising ground water in these situations. Had a sump pump installed 6 weeks after moving in (2006) when I came home to the crawl space filled to the brim, but if power goes out as well, pump is useless.
So here's to Hermine picking up speed and tracking east towards Europe.

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by Hewson

Heavy rains and abnormal tidal surges are always an issue for me as I live essentially in marshland a half mile from the ocean. Crawl space gets rising ground water in these situations. Had a sump pump installed 6 weeks after moving in (2006) when I came home to the crawl space filled to the brim, but if power goes out as well, pump is useless.
So here's to Hermine picking up speed and tracking east towards Europe.

Where do you live exactly? I can give you a better estimate of what you can expect.

[Hewson]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Where do you live exactly? I can give you a better estimate of what you can expect.

Marshfield, MA.
So far seems we are far enough north that it won't be too bad (compared to a lot of other places), but as you know these things are always unpredictable.

[Moonlit_Angel]

Hoping all of you in or near the path of this thing stay safe.

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by Hewson

Marshfield, MA.
So far seems we are far enough north that it won't be too bad (compared to a lot of other places), but as you know these things are always unpredictable.

The Cape should act as a natural buffer. I'd still expect higher than average water levels.

[bobsaget77]

I have family in Bradenton, FL.
Will they be in the clear?


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[nbelcik]

What's crazy is Hermine is strengthening as it comes onshore, winds are now up to 80 mph.


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[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by bobsaget77

I have family in Bradenton, FL.
Will they be in the clear?


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They'll just have endure some squall lines of thunderstorms. The center is coming in well north in a sparsely populated area

BTW: The name Hermine is super-lame, Harambe would have been a much better choice

[digitize]

I keep reading the storm's name as Hermione.


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[LadySpinHead]

Originally Posted by Hewson

if power goes out as well, pump is useless.

Get a battery backup for the pump, or even a second pump that operates on a battery (the heavy-duty batteries, not a bunch of AAs). That's what we have to get us through the monster Midwest thunderstorms that are guaranteed to knock out the power.

[deep]

Is it too late for Key West to repent and prevent this?

[LuckyNumber7]

Being in a hurricane is sort of exciting, in some light. In the appreciation of the power of Mother Nature, I suppose.

I remember during hurricane Wilma watching our pool screen lift off the ground a foot or two and be set back down. And our neighbor's flat iron grill that was built into their wall ended up in their pool. Oh, and a panel from our screen was torn off and we found it pierced right through the aluminum gutter. But nothing was cooler than walking out during the eye. Eery, spooky calm. Beautiful hazy gray blue skies above. Mountainous, storm wall clouds headed your way.

Once safety and security has been achieved, the aftermath of a storm without power is quite enjoyable.

Here I am reminiscing over mass destruction from weather. I'm a terrible human being.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

My biggest concern is that because a direct landfall isn't forecast for the NYC area that people will take this lightly, when the current forecast... where this thing just sits for three days over the gulf stream, spinning and strengthening, would be far worse than if it just plowed through as a mild tropical storm.

Really hoping these forecasts are wrong.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

The building I live in is a block from the East River, technically below sea level, and took on extensive damage during Hurricane Sandy... so the predictions regarding the storm stalling out off the coast has me very worried.

They did a lot of work moving electrical equipment and vital infrastructure to higher ground after the insurance money came in, but I still have my doubts.

Really hoping this thing doesn't stall out.

I lived close to the East River as well (41st & 2nd) in NYC and there was no hurricane making land at that time but there were a couple of really nasty rain storms (probably from tropical depressions or something offshore) and I remember coming out of my building thinking if this was just a bit worse we'd all be swimming.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by anitram

I lived close to the East River as well (41st & 2nd) in NYC and there was no hurricane making land at that time but there were a couple of really nasty rain storms (probably from tropical depressions or something offshore) and I remember coming out of my building thinking if this was just a bit worse we'd all be swimming.

Here's our flood zone map...



We're in the red.

And this was Sandy



Thankfully we're on a high floor, but if the waters do come in again we just have to hope that our management company didn't go cheap on the fortifications that were supposed to protect against this kind of thing if it were to happen again.

There's no immediate danger where we'd have to evacuate during the storm due to rising waters or anything like that... it's more the prospect of the power to the building being knocked out and having to be replaced again, which took months last time.

The subway system is still recovering from Sandy, and I don't know if they could handle something that floods the tubes again. They're already shutting the L Train tube into Williamsburg down next year for 3+ years to complete Sandy related repairs.

The problem here is that if it does stall it is going to be a prolonged event, not a sudden surge like Sandy... and does DeBlasio have the balls to shut the subway system down for a couple of days as a precaution, knowing that this shit is impossible to truly predict and the worst may never come?

I highly doubt it.

So we're just going to have to wait and see I guess.