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Old 11-13-2020, 04:53 PM   #101
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There’s just no way the vaccine will be ready to distribute to entire population by April.

And I’m still very curious about the data. All we know is that the vaccine protected some people for at least seven days.
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Old 11-13-2020, 04:54 PM   #102
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There is absolutely a way the vaccine, if approved shortly, will be ready for distribution to majority of population willing to take it by April.


The fact that the majority of the population won’t be willing to take it right away is probably the only reason why it could be available by April. 2 cryogenically cooled doses? That’s a non trivial type of energy consumption required to support an entire population on demand.
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:01 PM   #103
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The fact that the majority of the population won’t be willing to take it right away is probably the only reason why it could be available by April. 2 cryogenically cooled doses? That’s a non trivial type of energy consumption required to support an entire population on demand.
While I have zero faith in the outgoing administration's ability to do anything, I have a lot of faith in capitalism, and the idea that the Pfizer's and Moderna's of the world will allow trillions of dollars to go out the door because there's no way to effectively administer their vaccine.

And yes, that many won't take it will help - but enough will and I'm confident that we'll get it done.
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:03 PM   #104
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:06 PM   #105
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As we've discussed ad infinitum over the past 6 months, the number of individuals that will need to be vaccinated is tied to the vaccine's overall efficacy. The higher the efficacy, the lower the number of people who will need to be vaccinated in order for herd immunity to be achieved. If indeed the Pfizer vaccine has a 90% efficacy as advertised, it may not matter how many Karens and dumbass Trumpers with truck nuts try to hold the initiative back.
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:08 PM   #106
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As we've discussed ad infinitum over the past 6 months, the number of individuals that will need to be vaccinated is tied to the vaccine's overall efficacy. The higher the efficacy, the lower the number of people who will need to be vaccinated in order for herd immunity to be achieved. If indeed the Pfizer vaccine has a 90% efficacy as advertised, it may not matter how many Karens and dumbass Trumpers with truck nuts try to hold the initiative back.
Indeed. It's why I'm very hopeful that we're almost around the bend here.

Unfortunately just before the bend is an absolute gauntlet of death and misery.
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:17 PM   #107
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The MMR vaccine is 97% effective, and 93% of the population needs to be immunized to achieve herd immunity for measles.

Measles is much more contagious than COVID, but I think we still need a pretty high percentage of the population to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:24 PM   #108
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Yes but measles R0 is like 6 or 7, whereas COVID is around 2.
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:26 PM   #109
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It’s two doses.

Are they saying they’ll be 600 million doses ready by April ?

I want a vaccine badly, but i also want to be realistic.

The press release had some encouraging news but we still don’t know much about it. Just seven days of data released. Why that number ?

I’ll listen to the doctors and if they say yep, this thing is good to go!, I’ll get in line.

Bringing up capitalism is a good point, that’s how a distribution problem gets solved. Private sector is good at solutions like that

But it can also work the other way too when it comes to transparency of effectiveness of the vaccine. Sometimes the stock holders matter more than the product or population.

I’m also very thankful Trump , Pence, Atlas, My Pillow Guy will have nothing to do with it
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:30 PM   #110
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Yes but measles R0 is like 6 or 7, whereas COVID is around 2.
Yeah, I searched for a herd immunity calculator online and can't seem to find one. Probably too complex to just plug in a few numbers.

Look like the R0 for measles is actually 12+. Polio is about a 6, and only 80% immunization is needed for herd immunity, so maybe the number for COVID would actually be quite a bit lower.
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:34 PM   #111
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It is unlikely that everyone will get the same Vaccine. I have colleagues helping out on the Novovax vaccine trial and it does not require the refrigeration the Pfizer/BioNtech one does for instance.

AstraZeneca's should publish some interim data soon. Some the vaccines might have a bit less efficacy but might be easier to produce and store.

There is going to need to be some very clear educational campaigns around this when giving out vaccines to people as the crazy is going to be loud.
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:34 PM   #112
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It’s two doses.

Are they saying they’ll be 600 million doses ready by April ?

I want a vaccine badly, but i also want to be realistic.

The press release had some encouraging news but we still don’t know much about it. Just seven days of data released. Why that number ?

I’ll listen to the doctors and if they say yep, this thing is good to go!, I’ll get in line.

Bringing up capitalism is a good point, that’s how a distribution problem gets solved. Private sector is good at solutions like that

But it can also work the other way too when it comes to transparency of effectiveness of the vaccine. Sometimes the stock holders matter more than the product or population.

I’m also very thankful Trump , Pence, Atlas, My Pillow Guy will have nothing to do with it
You're not going to need to vaccinate the entire population.
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:36 PM   #113
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While I have zero faith in the outgoing administration's ability to do anything, I have a lot of faith in capitalism, and the idea that the Pfizer's and Moderna's of the world will allow trillions of dollars to go out the door because there's no way to effectively administer their vaccine.

And yes, that many won't take it will help - but enough will and I'm confident that we'll get it done.
There will be two gatekeepers.

First, the ability to produce high numbers of doses. Here, I think, I feel relatively fine because as you said, it's a massive money maker and they are hugely incentivized.

The other gatekeeper will be administration. There is no way the majority of people will have access to it by April, not even if we are talking about the majority of people willing to take it. The sort of scale we need to see is simply not achievable, especially with two doses AND they will absolutely not distribute it widely at first, nor should they. The EU has already at least loosely committed to a vaccination schedule: (1) healthcare workers, (2) individuals >80 and residents of long term care homes, (3) immunocompromised/chronically ill patients, (4) individuals >70, (5) everyone else. This is a massive effort and just think about the average amount of time it takes to vaccinate one individual - intake form (can be done digitally and in advance but good luck with these first cohorts of old people who can't turn on a computer much less use a cell phone properly), check to see if symptomatic/record temperature, prepare the needle, administer, discard needle, record the lot number. It's probably 5 mins on average, with some people being super quick but also having some people be very slow for a variety of reasons. So you have one nurse who can innoculate 12 people an hour. Let's be generous and pretend that she's a machine and manages 20 people over 8 hours for a total of 160 people. It becomes obvious very quickly that realistically healthy younger people will not have access until the latter part of 2021. But that is ok - once you start the ball rolling, every day is a better day and fewer high risk people will be exposed.

The governments absolutely must work with the private sector on the administration angle. To Headache's point, private enterprise is differently incentivized. To the extent that businesses are willing to hire their own staff to administer the vaccine, this should be welcomed with open arms as it will greatly reduce the pressure on the healthcare system. But what will inevitably happen is somebody will start yelling about the rich corporate types buying protection for themselves which will muck up the whole thing. The other angle is to train people to administer the vaccine. There is no rational reason why you need a nursing or medical degree to deliver an intramuscular shot. I had to give those to myself during my pregnancies and at no point after I was shown how to do it did anyone think that a medical professional would have to administer. Train people and speed up the process.

Projections for the worldwide population to be done? 2024. So, yeah.
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Old 11-13-2020, 05:55 PM   #114
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While I have zero faith in the outgoing administration's ability to do anything, I have a lot of faith in capitalism, and the idea that the Pfizer's and Moderna's of the world will allow trillions of dollars to go out the door because there's no way to effectively administer their vaccine.

And yes, that many won't take it will help - but enough will and I'm confident that we'll get it done.


Ok but you’re talking about infrastructure now, not just sales. It’s not that what you’re saying isn’t possible financially, it’s just that much like the mysterious disappearance of PPE, that takes time. You can’t just turn every clinic into an administering clinic overnight. It takes energy to hold something down at that low of a temperature. That’s a whole nother industry involved that needs to temporarily scale up. Cryogenics are not cheap (though thankfully they are renewable).
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Old 11-13-2020, 06:06 PM   #115
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Ok but you’re talking about infrastructure now, not just sales. It’s not that what you’re saying isn’t possible financially, it’s just that much like the mysterious disappearance of PPE, that takes time. You can’t just turn every clinic into an administering clinic overnight. It takes energy to hold something down at that low of a temperature. That’s a whole nother industry involved that needs to temporarily scale up. Cryogenics are not cheap (though thankfully they are renewable).
Sure but the PPE issues came suddenly (sorta), whereas th se companies have known since they began development in March that if they are unable to effectively distribute their product that they will lose out to any one of the dozens of other companies looking to win this race.

We'll see... I'm optimistic that they've thought of this and have a plan. Maybe I'm wrong.
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Old 11-13-2020, 06:13 PM   #116
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Didn't realize he had won...



Though thinmgs would have probably turned out better if he had,
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Old 11-13-2020, 06:15 PM   #117
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Sure but the PPE issues came suddenly (sorta), whereas th se companies have known since they began development in March that if they are unable to effectively distribute their product that they will lose out to any one of the dozens of other companies looking to win this race.

We'll see... I'm optimistic that they've thought of this and have a plan. Maybe I'm wrong.


I mean PPE is typically some certified cloth, and for sure there was always the ability to ramp up production of things like masks.

Nitrogen coolant systems are non trivial and require special handling. It’s not the same thing.

I’m sure they do have a plan, but again I’m going to stick by “you won’t see an issue only because people won’t get vaccinated right away.”
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Old 11-13-2020, 06:17 PM   #118
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Though thinmgs would have probably turned out better if he had,
i guess you're not really up to date on the latest news about ron...
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Old 11-13-2020, 07:59 PM   #119
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US Politics XXXI-Lame Duck Obese Turtle

https://twitter.com/lacaldwelldc/sta...262765568?s=21

But sure tell Americans to not eat with their families and friends

Or explain to the businesses here where i live that they can’t have indoor dining again for three weeks.

Do as i say, not as i do
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Old 11-13-2020, 09:20 PM   #120
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https://twitter.com/lacaldwelldc/sta...262765568?s=21

But sure tell Americans to not eat with their families and friends

Or explain to the businesses here where i live that they can’t have indoor dining again for three weeks.

Do as i say, not as i do


Super dumb.
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