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Old 08-21-2020, 11:17 AM   #161
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There wouldn't have been anyone in this position at this point. Although Bernie would have been a wild card that I don't think I can say wouldn't have been close. I think Bernie either would have been well behind where Biden is now, or up near where Biden is now. Because i just don't know how the dynamics would have been.

I mean, on the face of it, Biden's strength with seniors, suburban voters and moderate Reps couldn't be matched. Not even close.

I do think Bernie would be doing fine with people of color. His performance in the primary in no way determines what his General Election performance would be. I don't think it would be as high as Biden's with African Americans, but probably higher than Biden with Latinx voters. Obviously Bernie would be killing it with the 35 and unders.



I do think that Trump would have been easily able to label Bernie as being an dangerous radical leftist, that want's to destroy the country. And I think it would have resonated beyond his base.



Joe's success has been that he Trump has not found a way, with 74 days left to go, to define Joe in any negative way. In fact, one could say that him trying to define Joe as a puppet of the radical left, has actually turned off more voters than it has gained.



Unfortunately Pete would be subject to ageism and homophobia, Amy, Warren, Harris would have been subject to sexism, that you can bet would take at least a few points off their board. Sad but true.


I’m genuinely surprised that Biden has run such a good campaign so far. I really am.

But he has been at this a long, long time.
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:21 PM   #162
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I will give Biden credit that some aspects of his campaign have been working. I thought the ad where he drove a car around and talked about it was good; he seemed to have genuine interest, it showed a bit of personality, and it clearly showed something you could never imagine Trump doing. It's not much for substance, but it's good campaigning.

I do not think this convention will help the campaign. I found it shocking how much they leaned into rhetoric they cannot back up. The portion with Ady Barkan actively made me uncomfortable. The Democrats stand for a healthcare system that wants to abandon people like Ady Barkan. People with disabilities are at the frontlines of the battle between health justice and insurance companies. The ACA does not come close to bridging the gap. Turning him into a mascot for such a toothless policy is galling to me. I don't begrudge someone with no other choice like Barkan; I do begrudge those taking advantage of his situation.

And I do find the word "imperfect" very dismissive about how much bad shit Biden has stood for in his career. Let's not kid ourselves. Biden's in this position because of how bad of a candidate he is running against.
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:25 PM   #163
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That was a fantastic ad by Markey. It was seriously good.
And it's a bridge too far for Nancy Pelosi that someone would dare go against the Kennedy dynasty! She literally said this. Incredible.

No, but seriously, Markey is a 40-year typical Democrat. He's no progressive. But he has the right view on climate change, and it embarrasses Pelosi, so she has to try to kick him out for having the gall to step out of line and actually recognize a problem and propose a real solution. All of this after her big thing about blacklisting those who worked on campaigns to primary sitting Democrats.

She is a fucking ghoul.
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:45 PM   #164
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Also, the imperfect candidate is running a pretty flawless campaign so far and has an 8-12 point national lead. And it’s more than stepping back and letting Trump step on takes in the rose garden. The Biden campaign has made no mistakes, and pulled off several not easy things — a VP announcement with genuine suspense, the first ever virtual convention —very well.

I can’t think of anyone else in the D field who would be in such a position in mid-August.
Totally.

Biden is saved a little by the lack of an actual campaign. He is gaffe prone, after all - but from a political standpoint they've so far pushed all the right buttons in what is the oddest presidential campaign or our lifetimes.
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:48 PM   #165
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Trump blew his Burisma load too early - and even if he hadn't, it's questionable how much it would swing voters at this point. I think that the public takes it for granted that this sort of gross nepotism is a given. And yes, it was gross nepotism at its finest. The other thing is that only MAGA voters who have no concern about hypocrisy would not plainly see that Trump has zero room to call out anyone when it comes to nepotism given that half his family is parading around the White House doing God only knows what.
I was actually thinking of this this morning... why? Ah who the hell knows... but I was thinking about what kind of October surprise Trump is going to try and pull out of his arse, and one of my thoughts centered around having his lap dog Barr go directly after Hunter Biden.
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:56 PM   #166
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Barr will indict someone

Hunter Biden
James Comey
John Brennamen
Who knows

All to try and show the Biden / Obama administration is corrupt. Here’s your proof!! Then November 4th the charges are dropped.

Here’s the breakdown of the USPS sorting machines


https://twitter.com/ariberman/status...418342400?s=21
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Old 08-21-2020, 01:04 PM   #167
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I was actually thinking of this this morning... why? Ah who the hell knows...
I think that it was a gamble on their part - getting rid of Biden was the priority at the primary stage, and for a long time it looked like maybe there is a chance of that happening. Trump preferred to run against Bernie or Warren (I don't think the considered anyone else a serious contender) so it made sense to unload on Biden then.

Barr is obviously capable of anything but I think the public would see through any sort of Hunter Biden indictment. Meaning, they'll have to come up with something else.

The October surprise is much more likely to be a vaccine (not even one available in October, but an announcement that it is "done" and everyone can go back to hugging grandma at Thanksgiving) in combination with something really sleazy. Remember that Trump projects, so this is likely going to be something akin to producing every man that Kamala Harris ever slept with and having them parade around Fox News, claiming that Biden's granddaughters got into their colleges with the help of Aunt Becky's "tutor" and so on.
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Old 08-21-2020, 01:06 PM   #168
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I was actually thinking of this this morning... why? Ah who the hell knows... but I was thinking about what kind of October surprise Trump is going to try and pull out of his arse, and one of my thoughts centered around having his lap dog Barr go directly after Hunter Biden.


They were saving it for the fall. Folks blew whistles.
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Old 08-21-2020, 01:16 PM   #169
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I see that states have started dropping Kanye West from the ballot on account of late filing. These people can't even cheat competently.
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Old 08-21-2020, 03:24 PM   #170
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Irresponsible tweets by Nate Silver

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...95031765274624

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...95527037161472


Being a statistician, and a great one at that. I would think Nate could move his mind one step further and realize that it doesn't only matter what states the machines are being removed in.
He can put up population stats all he wants.

But when the population is split into a large 65%+ group of science deniers that plan to vote in person, and a small group of science believers that only plan to show up in person around 35%, then slowed mail service will effect those voting by mail disproportionately. And not by a small amount.
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Old 08-21-2020, 03:39 PM   #171
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Also, some side polling news. It looks like the small amount of tightening in national polls has started to creep slowly wider again.

Not much polling out in the last couple days. But looking at the tracker, Biden's lead started to grow after the tear gas/church incident. moving up from the mid sixes to above 8. He then held an 8.5 to 9.5 lead for almost 2 months before dropping about 2 points to a low of 7.6 on August 6th.

Since then, he has started slowly rising back to a current 8.6 avg. lead.

Since polls are sparse. the one thing I did notice, was that HarrisX which releases polls fairly regularly, and lean right, just a bit less than Rasmussen.
They had Biden at +3 on August 5th.
Then +4 Aug. 12th,
then +6 Aug. 18th,
and now today Biden +8.

So I think being able to follow the same pollster over time and see the trend does seem to show that from the Harris pick through the first day of the convention is showing movement for Biden/Harris.

So not sure how it will pan out in the end. Won't probably see another large round til a week after the GOP convention.
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Old 08-21-2020, 04:04 PM   #172
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How much of a shit show will the GOP convention be ?

Does Q make an appearance? Does Rudy yell? How many lock her up chants??

Scott Baio, the rich gun couple from St. Louis, and the smirking at Native American kid!!

Oh and Steve Bannon is still scheduled to speak as of today
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Old 08-21-2020, 04:14 PM   #173
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How much of a shit show will the GOP convention be ?

Does Q make an appearance? Does Rudy yell? How many lock her up chants??

Scott Baio, the rich gun couple from St. Louis, and the smirking at Native American kid!!

Oh and Steve Bannon is still scheduled to speak as of today
Trump voters will all think that it was amazing and not boring like the Dem one.

They like histrionics, old white men yelling at the clouds and everyone having a giant chip on their shoulders.
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Old 08-21-2020, 04:29 PM   #174
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What’s the over/under on someone using the N word?
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Old 08-21-2020, 04:46 PM   #175
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nobody's going to outright use the n-word, but every dog in america is about to spend the next week howling.
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Old 08-21-2020, 04:50 PM   #176
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They are setting up staging at the White House. Cause you know. Baby boy needs a crowd to make him feel good.

Anyone setting up for that is in violation of the Hatch Act. Anyone paying for that is in violation of the Hatch Act. Anyone volunteering to any of that is in violation as well.

Anyway, since we don't have rules anymore.

So this pretty much is the way they will get around having to do most of the remote setup that the Dems did.

Here's the problem they will run into. Not just pure shit for guests. But I think most of the speaking slots are gonna be filled with Trump's anus licking Rep Congressmen and Senators. What are they going to say? About half of each night of the Dem Con. was testimonials and videos of Biden's empathy, courage, grace and humility.
That will add up to ZERO minutes in the GOP show.

Also, last night Michael Steele was saying on Brian Williams that the Dem convention was so well done. The small bites of information, everything compact and flowed. It was just really good. Then he said, Yeah, shocking, Trump wants to speak all 4 nights. Good luck with that.

So we get 4 nights of Trump reading like a 2nd grade zombie off the teleprompter. Or if he goes off script it will be showerheads, a list of who is stupid, how Nancy Pelosi and Biden burn bibles to start California wildfires, and how white people are killed too!!!!

It's gonna be a mess.
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Old 08-21-2020, 04:52 PM   #177
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nobody's going to outright use the n-word, but every dog in america is about to spend the next week howling.
LOL. Hell yes.

A lot of "they" are going to... "they" will take away...
"Those people" always...
"urban"
"inner city"
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Old 08-21-2020, 04:52 PM   #178
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I mean... there's some pretty good value hereClick image for larger version

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Old 08-21-2020, 04:54 PM   #179
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Oh and Steve Bannon is still scheduled to speak as of today
Seriously? Lulz. That's honey badger to you. Honey badger doesn't give.
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Old 08-21-2020, 05:00 PM   #180
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That McConnell won’t be there is a tell, I think.

It’s how he’ll start to wash the stink off, so he can get back to the business of blocking judges.
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