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Old 09-16-2020, 01:22 PM   #781
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Hey, DAVE C hope I have the right poster!

I just got reminded elsewhere...

What ever happened with your ?sister's wedding?
I know covid19 was contained way better in Canada...
she insisted on going ahead with it in july despite nearly everyone pleading with her to postpone until next spring. at least half the people who were invited couldn't or wouldn't attend. they weren't able to do a whole bunch of the traditional wedding stuff that they were planning on doing and a lot of money was wasted, but she seems happy so
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Old 09-16-2020, 01:43 PM   #782
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No. Biden answered this a long time ago when it was first coming about. He said that his daughter is a social worker or something. And he doesn't want her to be the only one showing up on the scene of some violent domestic dispute. But what he wants to see is having cops come, follow set rules of excessive force. But also have trained social or mental health workers to possibly be there, or at least then follow up with the victim and get them the help and support they need.
This is exactly what needs to happen. Let's get real re: domestic abuse situations - the cops have historically been anything but helpful to the (typically) women involved. And a lot of it has to do with the victim not feeling comfortable enough to press charges because she is afraid, or unsure how she can leave, or doesn't have the financial means to live alone or pay for lawyers etc. You absolutely have to have social services involved from the first minute. Another great example is mental health incidents - very, very rarely would you need police because a mentally ill person is violent or threatening or armed. In most cases you are dealing with people cycling off their meds, or suicidal or truant/homeless - none of these instances need armed police officers and if anything, their presence could make things worse.

You will always need to have adequate police to respond to violent or potentially violent crimes, crime scenes, criminal investigations and so on. That's why "defund" is such a horrible name - to 99% of people it sounds like you are taking away ALL police funding and what we'll be left with is some sort of lawless wild West where everyone and their brother will have to become John Wayne.

There are lots of areas where police budgets could be cut without much impact on the communities in which they serve. I personally know officers who had a quota of parking tickets they were to generate daily/weekly. Is this really the best use of public funds? Nevermind the military-style weaponry purchased by so many police departments or the astronomical costs of maintaining that equipment (which nobody talks about) while it basically sits unused 99.9% of the time.
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Old 09-16-2020, 02:19 PM   #783
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But they’re all pieces of shit, headache. You must know this by now.
My bad
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Old 09-16-2020, 05:12 PM   #784
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This is exactly what needs to happen. Let's get real re: domestic abuse situations - the cops have historically been anything but helpful to the (typically) women involved. And a lot of it has to do with the victim not feeling comfortable enough to press charges because she is afraid, or unsure how she can leave, or doesn't have the financial means to live alone or pay for lawyers etc. You absolutely have to have social services involved from the first minute. Another great example is mental health incidents - very, very rarely would you need police because a mentally ill person is violent or threatening or armed. In most cases you are dealing with people cycling off their meds, or suicidal or truant/homeless - none of these instances need armed police officers and if anything, their presence could make things worse.



You will always need to have adequate police to respond to violent or potentially violent crimes, crime scenes, criminal investigations and so on. That's why "defund" is such a horrible name - to 99% of people it sounds like you are taking away ALL police funding and what we'll be left with is some sort of lawless wild West where everyone and their brother will have to become John Wayne.



There are lots of areas where police budgets could be cut without much impact on the communities in which they serve. I personally know officers who had a quota of parking tickets they were to generate daily/weekly. Is this really the best use of public funds? Nevermind the military-style weaponry purchased by so many police departments or the astronomical costs of maintaining that equipment (which nobody talks about) while it basically sits unused 99.9% of the time.


Thank you for the detail. This makes sense and would be miles better than what we have now.
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Old 09-16-2020, 08:57 PM   #785
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I really appreciate Bitecofer’s analysis:


https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitec...tember-update/
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Old 09-16-2020, 11:12 PM   #786
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On second thought, it’s coming under a lot of scrutiny/criticism. So maybe not?

Oh well. Too late to delete.
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Old 09-16-2020, 11:45 PM   #787
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So I'm seeing clips from last night's town hall that Trump did, and I just want to say I love the woman who told Trump to let her finish asking her question and got him to be quiet for a moment.
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Old 09-17-2020, 07:34 AM   #788
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So I'm seeing clips from last night's town hall that Trump did, and I just want to say I love the woman who told Trump to let her finish asking her question and got him to be quiet for a moment.
I love her too. A woman responding in that way to him, I'm sure it drove him crazy. He doesn't like anyone doing that, but especially an African American woman...that must be a tough one for him.

In the clips I've seen he acted like he was medicated, he wasn't his usual self. Of course Laura Ingraham said he was ambushed by ABC.
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Old 09-17-2020, 08:39 AM   #789
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Volume 1, almost 800 pages. Interesting that it's not out until after the election. I love the title.


Barack Obama
@BarackObama
·
3h
There’s no feeling like finishing a book, and I’m proud of this one. In A Promised Land, I try to provide an honest accounting of my presidency, the forces we grapple with as a nation, and how we can heal our divisions and make democracy work for everybody.

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Old 09-17-2020, 09:51 AM   #790
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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...198987776?s=21
Without the rule of law we aren’t anything special.

The house could arrest these people and at least show some consequence to their actions
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Old 09-17-2020, 10:49 AM   #791
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So I'm seeing clips from last night's town hall that Trump did, and I just want to say I love the woman who told Trump to let her finish asking her question and got him to be quiet for a moment.
https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1306413086396616705
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Old 09-17-2020, 11:07 AM   #792
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This whole FL tightening business is really annoying me. Trump is winning the Cuban/Venezuela vote in large numbers because he's using the "socialism" angle.
I haven't seen the Biden teams ads in south Florida, but it seems pretty simple.
The message should be:
Your family came to the United States to escape authoritarian leaders. Don't vote for one now that you are here.

I know Biden is smartly targeting the Puerto Rican voters, and Indian/Caribbean voters. But he has a pretty simple counter message he could use to the Cuban and Venezuelan voters.
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Old 09-17-2020, 11:27 AM   #793
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I know Biden is smartly targeting the Puerto Rican voters, and Indian/Caribbean voters. But he has a pretty simple counter message he could use to the Cuban and Venezuelan voters.
I don't think so. These people are perennial Republican voters and really set in their ways. And a lot of the population is elderly on top of it.

Waste of $ to go after them. Better to dig for new votes in Florida if you're going to bother with the swamp at all.
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Old 09-17-2020, 11:54 AM   #794
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https://twitter.com/ckmarie/status/1...484122624?s=21

Leader knows all.
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Old 09-17-2020, 12:02 PM   #795
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I don't think so. These people are perennial Republican voters and really set in their ways. And a lot of the population is elderly on top of it.

Waste of $ to go after them. Better to dig for new votes in Florida if you're going to bother with the swamp at all.
I see your point. And if the numbers were closer to Clinton's in 2016 that would make total sense. But he's up about 18 more points than he was over Clinton. That means to me there is a good percentage that would be persuadable to go to Biden. I mean, if they were strapped for cash i would agree with you. But if he as the money to spend, then he might as well take a shot. Also, as the years pass you have more young, second and third generation Cubans that lean slightly left.

I'd say blanket PA and FL. Then probably NC and AZ after that.
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Old 09-17-2020, 12:07 PM   #796
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biden doesn't have a hope in hell of winning a meaningful percentage of the cuban-american vote.

the vast majority of the miami exile community fled cuba not because they were in abject poverty and were desperate to survive or hoping for a better life in the US, they mostly left because they were part of the former ruling class and castro's regime moved to seize their assets for redistribution (of course there are plenty of exceptions to this). they loathe the castro regime and anything that even remotely resembles socialism (whether it actually is socialism or not), and joe biden was part of the administration that made a deal to normalize relations with the regime.

this was a big reason why, during the primaries, people from other campaigns were saying bernie sanders was unelectable after his castro comments came to light. "he can't win florida because no cuban-american will ever vote for him after saying something nice about fidel". the actual deal-making with the castros that the obama-biden administration undertook was apparently never going to be a problem for biden, but i digress.

fortunately it appears for now that there are enough biden voters in florida to overcome the cuban bloc regardless.
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Old 09-17-2020, 12:43 PM   #797
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This whole FL tightening business is really annoying me.
I'm a complete outsider of course, as I'm looking at it from far away Europe. But I'm not that annoyed by the polls tightening in some states.
I've said it before, but I mainly look for the race on this site: https://electoral-vote.com/
Now, even if we say that all states that are a statistical tie (i.e. margin is within a margin of error of 5%) are going for Trump in the end, then Biden still has 280 electoral votes in the end. Those are from states where he's currently at least 5% ahead. And that's enough. He only has to stay alive.
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Old 09-17-2020, 01:38 PM   #798
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At this point, I think people in general are underestimating the likelihood of a post-electoral attempt from Trump to declare himself as winner late on November 3rd, with a likely constitutional crisis following. What are the odds at this stage? I would say at least 20-30%, conservatively.
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Old 09-17-2020, 01:41 PM   #799
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I'm a complete outsider of course, as I'm looking at it from far away Europe. But I'm not that annoyed by the polls tightening in some states.
I've said it before, but I mainly look for the race on this site: https://electoral-vote.com/
Now, even if we say that all states that are a statistical tie (i.e. margin is within a margin of error of 5%) are going for Trump in the end, then Biden still has 280 electoral votes in the end. Those are from states where he's currently at least 5% ahead. And that's enough. He only has to stay alive.
Annoyed with the polls is the wrong term. I guess I'm annoyed with Biden for not hitting FL harder earlier. He was up almost 7 points, he should have doubled down then.

For the most part, a few states are actually looking better - MI, WI and AZ.
MI staying steady with a solid lead. No polling out of PA recently so that will be interesting.

Actually an interesting poll out of NC today. Biden with a 4 point lead from Suffolk. Suffolk has given Trump some better numbers than some this cycle. And they are not weighting for education. That could mean that Bidens number could be closer to 6. Also they only have Cunningham at +4. And he's been running much stronger than Biden. So it tells me this poll maybe low, which would be huge for the Dems right now with NC early voting already.
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Old 09-17-2020, 02:12 PM   #800
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Trump was up half a point in Florida on this same date in 2016... so Biden being up 2 points isn't something to lose sleep over.

Trump cheating his way to victory regardless of what the polls or actual vote counts say... that's what you should lose sleep over.
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