US Politics XXV: At Least We're Not Australia

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phanan said:
I don’t disagree with most of your thoughts here, I think it applies a lot (although I’d argue the Times has been fairly strong of late). But there are plenty of folks out there voting strictly on their core conservative values and still believe Trump is the best option, even if he’s clearly not. Hell, I have “friends” on Facebook who are, and when you try to talk sense to them, they just don’t listen. I don’t believe it makes all of them racist though. Stupid, yes.

Maybe it is “ingrained” racism as you put it, that it’s there and they just don’t know, but there’s an entire swath of these people who I worry will be sticking with Trump this November. I hope I’m wrong...
Click to expand...

I guess I come from a perspective of living in many different areas of the country in my life.
I grew up mainly in WI, MI for 7 years, lived in East TX for a while, Seattle for a while, Central Oregon for some time, FL for 11 years, and now TN.

What I can tell you is that the racism in the south is much more out in the open. But my time in the midwest showed me, what i like to call "polite racism". They don't think of themselves as having racist views.. They do indeed have "black friends", but a place like WI is filled with white professionals and white non professionals that make a good living, work hard, may be a bit more liberal on things like abortion, but still have this... "those people need to stop killing eachother" "those people need to get jobs" "did you see who moved in over on Maple St.?" sort of undercurrent.
These are the ones that I worry about, because Joe is a candidate that could easily win their vote this time. They would not have been Bernie voters, or even Warren most likely. But give them 6 weeks of a news cycle about violence in the streets, and they may either sit home or vote Trump.

Again. Biden needs to push back vocally. He needs to be a constant presence in MI, WI, PA, and FL from here until election day.
 
Irvine511 said:
I hope I’m wrong, but Kenosha feels different to me. It could be timing, or it could be because it’s in a swing state.

Again: hope I’m wrong.
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It's harder because he was wanted for a felony, because they tried to tase him, because he resisted and because he had a knife. That's different than a clearly unarmed man getting his neck kneeled on for 8 minutes because he cashed a bad check.

And please, before anyone says it, I know full well that it SHOULDN'T matter - and I'm not saying it matters to ME.

But to an electorate that largely wants to support law enforcement and reviles the looting and rioting? It gives them that out - whereas only the most outwardly racist piece of garbage could even remotely try and argue that Floyd was justified.
 
https://twitter.com/gregggonsalves/status/1300392458212257792?s=21

Can read thru the thread but points are we have a quack leading the covid response in White House.

He’s pushing herd immunity (but protect elderly), let economy open fully.

I’m telling my friends back home who tend to vote 3rd party that voting for Biden means we’ll save millions of lives.

That’s it. No policy talk. It’s life or death. Another term of Trump means this. He and whoever else is in his ear won’t do what’s right.
 
phanan said:
Michael Moore is concerned.

https://twitter.com/MMFlint/status/1300062465921822720?s=20

https://twitter.com/MMFlint/status/1300069277102465024?s=20
Click to expand...

Michael Moore is an idiot.

First, this is the guy that has bashed Biden for the past year and then comes out and says, "Oh No!! Emergency!!! I told you this could happen!!"

Second, He understands nothing about polling. comparing 2020 numbers with 2016 numbers is apples and oranges.
First, the polling for the most part has changed methodology, weighting by education and 2016 voter makeup.
Second. The number of undecideds in 2016 at this point was 18%, now it's 6 or less.
Third, Biden is still near or above 50% in most of these state polls, something that Clinton was not near.
Fourth to post a Trafalger poll result, is pretty much polling malpractice. Maybe also mention that this poll is about 8 points off of every other pollster and is always about 6 to 8 points to the right of every legitimate pollster.

Now please MM. just shut the fuck up.
 
Also, this RCP phenomenon needs to die in a fire. For fuck’s sake, there’s no statistical meaning behind taking the average of different polls.

In 2026 there were plenty of polls that had Trump +1 and then plenty that had him blown out of the water. In 2020, most polls so far aren’t showing a lot of “in the margin” looks for Trump to be happy about. Don’t count your chickens, though.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
You can, actually, blame it on all of those things + and also blame it on the sheer stupidity of our shit hole country.
Click to expand...

God we are stupid. The media is stupid. And that always adds up to being shitty for the party that actually has truth on their side.

Loved seeing a segment on MSNBC this morning - Steve Kornacki, at the big board, talking about the "race tightening"!!!!
Just to remind everyone - to make this statement, you would have to cherry pick numbers from a total of TWO polls that have come out that show about a 2 point tightening - which means, well, maybe nothing since the margin of error is +/- 3!
Also, TWO other polls have come out that show no tightening whatsoever. Biden remained at the same number and one had Biden up one point.
Then you see the ABC poll that actually shows Biden getting an uptick in approval and Trump's approval worsening after both conventions.

Anyway -back to Steve - He's talking about the "tightening". He is using RCP averages (First mistake). He says - Remember, Biden has been up over 8 points up to this point, and now we see him about 7. So if we look a week back Biden was at 7.8, Two weeks back Biden at 7.4, and month back Biden at 7.6... Ok, so he has lost... ummm... about a point.

LOLOLOLOL. So real time, he sees that the presentation he had set up to show Biden sliding, doesn't show that at all. And let's remember, Biden was at 6.4 on RCP about three weeks ago. SMH.
 
womanfish said:
Michael Moore is an idiot.



First, this is the guy that has bashed Biden for the past year and then comes out and says, "Oh No!! Emergency!!! I told you this could happen!!"



Second, He understands nothing about polling. comparing 2020 numbers with 2016 numbers is apples and oranges.

First, the polling for the most part has changed methodology, weighting by education and 2016 voter makeup.

Second. The number of undecideds in 2016 at this point was 18%, now it's 6 or less.

Third, Biden is still near or above 50% in most of these state polls, something that Clinton was not near.

Fourth to post a Trafalger poll result, is pretty much polling malpractice. Maybe also mention that this poll is about 8 points off of every other pollster and is always about 6 to 8 points to the right of every legitimate pollster.



Now please MM. just shut the fuck up.
Click to expand...



I don’t disagree with your argument, but there is one aspect of Moore’s argument that is absolutely dead on: Democrats and anyone opposing Trump simply cannot afford to get complacent and need to fight all the way up to Election Day like they’re the ones trailing in the polls.
 
That said, probably a lot of better quality polls out this week, and then a lot more polls after labor day. So we probably won't know much for at least a week or two.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that if we see a bunch of new polls with Biden up somewhere between 7 and 12, I doubt we will see a ton of media pieces about the race "widening".
 
Diemen said:
I don’t disagree with your argument, but there is one aspect of Moore’s argument that is absolutely dead on: Democrats and anyone opposing Trump simply cannot afford to get complacent and need to fight all the way up to Election Day like they’re the ones trailing in the polls.
Click to expand...

I think that this is a given at this point, for about 90% of people voting blue, they will crawl over glass to get to the polls. It's the 10% of soft Biden, moderate republicans, that I still think can be swayed to either go the polls or stay home.
I also think that bad polling and bad media stories about bad polling presents a narrative to voters that are on the fence that - Hey, look, other people are deciding to vote for Trump, so I think I will too. Like I've said dozens of times. There are a LOT of people that voted for Trump in 2016, that are not for him now, but are just waiting for any reason or rationalization to vote for him again. These stories saying that voters are moving to Trump, don't help.

But I agree that it is necessary for everyone to feel urgency. But not to cross the line into making Dems feel defeated or feed into a fasle Trump comeback! narrative.
 
As we await a bunch of new national and state polls. Here is one that is particularly interesting.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1300222832761282561

St. Pete Polls is a good outfit. This is for FL-13. Hillary won by just over 3 points. Biden is up in this bellweather district by 14.

#FL13 GE:
Charlie Crist (D-inc) 55% (+16)
Anna Paulina Luna (R) 39%
.
Biden 54% (+14)
Trump 40%

@StPetePolls
8/29-30
 
This pretty much tells you all you need to know about the choice this election and what Trump's motives are.

https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/1300443983383064582

Asked whether Trump has spoken to Jacob Blake's family, Kayleigh McEnany says, "We are efforting outreach, have not been able to connect yet."

But, Blake family lawyer tells MSNBC “My office has received no calls to set up any kind of meeting.”

Meanwhile from the Blake family: (and note the wording) It's too late for Trump to call, “I’ve already talked to President Biden.”
 
“Efforting outreach” - I have to hand it to them, this is a great one.
 
womanfish said:
Michael Moore is an idiot.



First, this is the guy that has bashed Biden for the past year and then comes out and says, "Oh No!! Emergency!!! I told you this could happen!!"



Second, He understands nothing about polling. comparing 2020 numbers with 2016 numbers is apples and oranges.

First, the polling for the most part has changed methodology, weighting by education and 2016 voter makeup.

Second. The number of undecideds in 2016 at this point was 18%, now it's 6 or less.

Third, Biden is still near or above 50% in most of these state polls, something that Clinton was not near.

Fourth to post a Trafalger poll result, is pretty much polling malpractice. Maybe also mention that this poll is about 8 points off of every other pollster and is always about 6 to 8 points to the right of every legitimate pollster.



Now please MM. just shut the fuck up.
Click to expand...


Is it weird that I take your polling thoughts into account more than Michael Moore’s? lol...
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
Michael Moore, annoying as he may be, did say the same things in 2016.
Click to expand...

I feel like MM wants to be right about a "moderate" being defeated than he is in actually defeating Trump.
He has been a bit more fully anti-Trump lately, and I get him trying to scare people to the polls with close polling numbers. But I don't think he realizes that it doesn't necessarily have the effect he wants.
 
phanan said:
Is it weird that I take your polling thoughts into account more than Michael Moore’s? lol...
Click to expand...

Well it's not just Moore. See Frank Lutz (how did this man get a job?) to see that people think it's logical to just go look back at 2016 on the same date and think that's it. But there are SO many different variables to take into account.

2016 - woman, baggage of president husband, coming off 8 years of a Dem presidency, going up against a well-known non-politician, that people had zero information on how he would actually govern, high disapproval ratings, high levels of undecided voters, a more active progressive group of voters against the Dem, dates of conventions are different, russians feeding Trump stolen emails, the list goes on and on.

2020 - A well known moderate politician with a fairly progressive platform, fairly high approval rating, working class roots, coming off a successful Obama presidency, low undecided voters, a much more polarized electorate, running against a now known quantity, etc...

Anyway, we can't logically go back to 2016 and compare the numbers. It's better to live in the present. Look at Biden's numbers and see if he is at 50% or greater. See Trump struggling at 42%. Those numbers tell you more than almost any polling average around.
 
p.s. - Good Biden speech by the way.

"Trump says that only if he were president, all of this death and violence would be gone. Well the problem there is that Trump IS currently the president whether he knows it or not."
 
womanfish said:
Well it's not just Moore. See Frank Lutz (how did this man get a job?) to see that people think it's logical to just go look back at 2016 on the same date and think that's it. But there are SO many different variables to take into account.



2016 - woman, baggage of president husband, coming off 8 years of a Dem presidency, going up against a well-known non-politician, that people had zero information on how he would actually govern, high disapproval ratings, high levels of undecided voters, a more active progressive group of voters against the Dem, dates of conventions are different, russians feeding Trump stolen emails, the list goes on and on.



2020 - A well known moderate politician with a fairly progressive platform, fairly high approval rating, working class roots, coming off a successful Obama presidency, low undecided voters, a much more polarized electorate, running against a now known quantity, etc...



Anyway, we can't logically go back to 2016 and compare the numbers. It's better to live in the present. Look at Biden's numbers and see if he is at 50% or greater. See Trump struggling at 42%. Those numbers tell you more than almost any polling average around.
Click to expand...
Sure.

There's also no reason why we can't look at it with caution.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
Sure.

There's also no reason why we can't look at it with caution.
Click to expand...

I totally agree. I think we should absolutely be cautious. I mean, it does seem that NC has legitimately tightened. Swing state wise, there has been a narrowing since the highs in July during the protests.

I'm not trying to say that everything is fine, Joe is way ahead and will stay that way. Just that this particular race has it's own life and dynamics that you can't copy and paste over to 2016.

One thing to remember is that many pollsters have changed the way they weight their polls to fix problems in 2016. So polls actually should look tighter in these state polls, but they hopefully will also be more accurate.

So I'll close with this. - Go donate, go volunteer to text or call, talk to your friends and family if they are on the fence, spread voting registration info on social media. Anything we can do.
My hope is that Biden stays well ahead in polls, but everyone still act like he is running well behind.
 
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