MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
I've seen a couple of clips of Kimberly Guilfoyle on the morning shows. What the hell was that? 
US Politics XXV: At Least We're Not Australia
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MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
OP
OP
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Just watched her speech.
Its like they told her they were going to be piping in roaring thunderous applause so start loud and get louder, then someone forgot to push the applause button on the broadcast. Very strange to watch.
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
I read that she said in her speech that she is a 1st generation immigrant from Puerto Rico. That can't be true. Then again she's dating Donald Trump Jr.
Let's recall why she left Fox News too.
OP
OP
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
I read that she said in her speech that she is a 1st generation immigrant from Puerto Rico. That can't be true. Then again she's dating Donald Trump Jr.
Let's recall why she left Fox News too.
I think she said her mother is an immigrant from PR, she's 1st generation American.
I didn't know until today and googling her (cause really would never have had reason to before) that she is the ex wife of Gavin Newsom. Talk about politics making strange bedfellows.
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Puerto Rico became US territory in 1917. Not trying to nitpick, but I don't think she could be factually correct. Unless she said grandmother?
She fits right in with the Trump family, I'll be nice and just leave it at that.
The picture I posted reminds me of Evita. Maybe that was the effect she was trying to achieve.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Hahahahahaha... Look at you living in reality. Very cute. Puerto Ricans are BROWN! Therefore, NOT American!! Please get with the program.
Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
I've seen a couple of clips of Kimberly Guilfoyle on the morning shows. What the hell was that?
I'm pretty sure I about went deaf listening to that. Ye gods.
Jerry Dunk
Refugee
I did not realize there was such a thing as weapons-grade amphetamines until seeing Don Jr. and the former Mrs. Gavin Newsom yesterday.
dazzledbylight
Blue Crack Supplier
Eh, save yourself from the toxicity , and watch the Recap instead.
Democraticunderground poster recommend TLP on YT as the best (vs MSNBC, NPR). I switched to them last night.
They were vicious!!!
I highly recommend!
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Listening to Eric Trump speak is so cringey. He’s destroying their charades because he doesn’t have the true Trump capability. Sad!
Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
One of the (many) reasons the Trump campaign is struggling. They literally have absolutely ZERO moral high ground of any sort to stand on.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I’ve decided I can’t even watch the “highlights”.
phanan
Blue Crack Addict
Same. I just read the Times breakdown the next day.
https://twitter.com/jysexton/status/1298619562964013056?s=21
They take pride in breaking the law openly. Really no difference between the mafia and the White House at this point.
They take pride in breaking the law openly. Really no difference between the mafia and the White House at this point.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
Seriously.
This is the only card Trump has left to play, so it would be really nice if these people would stop doing his work for him. I have no doubt, as we’ve seen in other cities, that there are white supremacist agitators escalating things, but lord.
And these fucking people are just awful. It’s white people yelling at other white people in a city that’s 50% black and will go 95% for Biden:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/08/25/dc-protesters-blm-diner-confrontation/
The woman on that bench has the patience of a saint.
Not many people could be surrounded by a hostile crowd, being yelled at, her personal space crushed. And she calmly reacts. Even if she was against the movement (she said she is on their side, just didn't agree with their tactics) I applaud her peace.
Not many people could be surrounded by a hostile crowd, being yelled at, her personal space crushed. And she calmly reacts. Even if she was against the movement (she said she is on their side, just didn't agree with their tactics) I applaud her peace.
Jerry Dunk
Refugee
White supremacist agitators are being given carte blanche to act as pseudo-militias by the police. It just happened last night in Kenosha, and the white supremacists murdered two protesters. This is consistent with the police approach in many cities across the country since the George Floyd protests.
If there is ever to be another civil war in this country, it won't be along borders like the first one. It'll be the police and military against its own citizens, the ones protesting for justice. The police are tasked with protecting property, not people. It's no wonder they find kinship in guys with guns who want to protect some store.
If there is ever to be another civil war in this country, it won't be along borders like the first one. It'll be the police and military against its own citizens, the ones protesting for justice. The police are tasked with protecting property, not people. It's no wonder they find kinship in guys with guns who want to protect some store.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Here's my issue with outliers that are this far outlying. It takes an average of 9.3 from polls taken August 19 to 25th. And one poll brings it down to 8.3.
YouGov
Biden +9
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
Trump Biden +1
Ipsos
Biden +7
Change Research
Biden +8
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group
Biden +11
YouGov
Biden +11
Morning Consult
Biden +10
Léger
Biden +9
I agree that poll average sites like RCP don't mean much since the polls they include are arbitrary and I think they average over 30 days.
But I do they are informative if you look at a group of polls over a week period to see where it stands at that moment in time.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
Why can’t the Dems be good at messaging ?
GOP has
HER EMAILS
BENGAHZI
CROOKED HILLARY
PIZZAGATE
SAVETHEKIDS
And people just flock to it.
Can’t the Dems find something catchy with
IMPEACHMENT
HATCH ACT
180,000 Dead!!
RUSSIAN BOUNTIES
We heard all day long for months how Clinton was lawless and a security threat. Then we get an actual criminal and we can’t frame a message ?
GOP has
HER EMAILS
BENGAHZI
CROOKED HILLARY
PIZZAGATE
SAVETHEKIDS
And people just flock to it.
Can’t the Dems find something catchy with
IMPEACHMENT
HATCH ACT
180,000 Dead!!
RUSSIAN BOUNTIES
We heard all day long for months how Clinton was lawless and a security threat. Then we get an actual criminal and we can’t frame a message ?
Convention gonna be lit tonight
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
It's all interesting right now. One thing to keep in mind. Almost all pollsters (good ones) are now weighting for education, when most did not in 2016. This give a little sway towards Trump in the polls this time around.
Second. There hasn't been much real tightening. Live caller polls are still the best regarded, and you saw a big gap from them for over 3 weeks in late July and early August. What we saw was a tightening in national polls from Biden +9.5 down to Biden plus 7.5. Once more live polls came online after Harris and convention, you saw Biden tick back up to 8.5-9+ (until Rasmussen came out today)
Now national polls are fine, and give a sense of the race in general. But even the "tightening" that happened a few weeks ago, was still well within the margin of error. So what we can say, is that Biden is anywhere between 6 and 11ish points ahead.
The main thing that I think is probably worrying the Trump team the most, is the percentage that each candidate is getting. Biden hit over 50% on June 11th, and has held almost a 51% or higher now consistently over the last 2.5 months. Even during the time he trended down. That is hugely important. Trump hasn't been over 43% since June 5th.
That tells us that a lot of "undecideds" made up their mind after the tear gas church thing, and the protests. And they haven't gone back. 43% is a really bad position for Trump to be in, and with far fewer undecideds left, he doesn't have a lot of room to push that number up.
State polls have tightened a bit more, but the polling has been much more erratic on the state polls. So we see WI, FL, and PA tightening to 5 or 6% instead of 7 or 8. We see NC tightening to 1.5 instead of 3.5. Where it would be rough for Biden to pull it off.
The good part is that WI, MI, and PA all have Biden over 50%. NC, GA, TX, FL and AZ do not. And that still gives me heartburn.
I think that the poll watching has been more of a nice distraction up to this point. The real polls will start mid-September, when states actually start to vote and both conventions are done.
The biggest wild card is Covid. Right now, Covid has been pushed out of the media's attention. It feels like people are just ignoring it now. Which will play into Trumps hands, even as almost 1,000 people are still dying each day.
The next thing will be economy. This will be the 4th week that people will have not gotten the extra Federal boost in unemployment. I am one of those people. And things will start to turn fast in the economic numbers if they don't get a deal passed for unemployment.
And then the debates, which i completely forgot about. LOL.
Lots of wildcards. The turnout will be big which benefits Dems. But you will get a lot of Trump 2016 voters that may say they won't vote for him now that will end up finding some excuse to vote for him this time. On the flip side, Trump has lost huge swaths of elderly, women, suburbanites, Asain voters, vets and military, the list goes on.
I think by October 15th the race will have already been won or lost. Half the states will have been sending in mail ins, or started early voting. Minds will be made up.
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